Microsoft's Surface 2 and Surface Pro 2 represent big improvements over the originals, but they still make sense only for certain users.
Of all the critiques that have been directed at Microsoft's device strategy, Apple CEO Tim Cook's is probably the most apt: The Surface campaign is 'confused.'
'Confused' fits better than 'doomed,' 'failing,' or any of the other terms that seemed appropriate a few months ago, when the Surface line was defined entirely by unenthusiastic reviews, unsold inventory, rapid price reductions, and a $900 million writedown.
The harshest criticisms are no longer appropriate because the Surface 2 and Surface Pro 2 are big improvements. The former beats its predecessor in every regard, while the latter addresses the original Pro's biggest weaknesses, such as battery life. Windows 8.1 is also a much more cohesive experience -- even the Modern UI, whose once-anemic core apps are now full-featured enough for comfortable day-to-day use. The devices also come with pretty nice perks: a year of free Skype WiFi and 200 GB of SkyDrive storage for two years.
Why does this progress represent a confused strategy? Because the devices still cater to a single idea with limited short-term upside: desktop-laptop convergence. Hybrid devices might eventually be the norm, but for now, they represent a niche category.
If this weren't so, Windows 8 tablets would have already made an impression on the market. The research firm Gartner projected in September that the devices will account for just 1.7 percent of the field this year. IDC estimated in August that the devices accounted for 4 percent of second-quarter shipments, which suggests modest improvement, but the firm emphasized in October that Windows slates were struggling to win consumer support.
[ Take a look at the battle for tablet supremacy. See Apple Vs. Microsoft: Tablet Empire Strikes Back. ]
The subtext is clear: If tablets that supported true multitasking and native desktop apps were so appealing, they wouldn't have sold so poorly. Windows 8's rough edges deserve some of the blame, and Windows 8.1 should help. But if the core concept had more than niche appeal, more people would have taken a chance on some of the first-generation devices.
Analyst surveys add more evidence. Over the summer, separate studies from Gartner and Forrester indicated many users consider tablets and laptops to be separate tools. Forrester's research also indicated many people who want to use tablets with keyboards are content to pair iPads with third-party options, and that interest in Windows 8 tablets had declined since the OS launched.
Apple still produces laptops without touchscreens and an iPad catalogue bereft of first-party attachable keyboards. The company's refusal to embrace convergence has had little perceptible impact on the iPad's marketshare. If anything, early iPad Air sales suggest Apple is poised to conquer new ground.
If you add up the preceding factors, demand for a superlative tablet experience is enormous. That's why Apple makes the most money, commands the most attention from developers, and dominates most usage-share metrics, as Tim Cook is fond of pointing out. It's also why Samsung, Amazon, and others have had success with premium Android devices. The market is big enough for many players.
But Microsoft hasn't pursued this mainstream market. Both the Surface Pro and the Surface Pro 2 cater to much more specific needs. They're for people who want touch apps but don't need (or are at least willing to wait for) a fully developed ecosystem. They're for people who like to use their tablets in landscape mode more than in portrait mode. They're for people who need Microsoft Office but want to use it on a relatively small 10-inch screen, and who are willing to type on relatively cramped keyboards. Everything the devices excel at, in other words, appeals only to niches.
Take the Surface Pro 2's much-ballyhooed support for desktop apps. What is running Photoshop on a 10-inch screen if not a niche use case? Granted, the Pro 2 can also dock to an external monitor, which might sway some users. But powerful as it is, the Pro 2 still isn't a workstation replacement for desktop power users. It's a niche device for people who need power and portability in a very specific ratio.
To be fair, Surface-friendly niches are numerous enough for Microsoft to sell millions of units over the next year. It seems like a big number, but it's also one that the iPad Air has likely already annihilated. And that's where Microsoft's strategy becomes confused. The company has hyped its Surface products with the same gusto -- and willingness to spend -- that Apple applies to its iPads. But what is the company trying to achieve by doubling down on such a finite product category?
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