Justin's Defense of Horse Racing

<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">On Tuesday Jayman posted about horse racing's problems with <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2013/04/Horse-Racing-is-Animal-Abuse-and-Corruption.html" target="_blank">abuse and corruption</a>. Today, Justin in Lexington posts his defense of horse racing.<br /><br /><br /><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Office of <a href="https://twitter.com/_JustinHenry_" target="_blank">@_JustinHenry_</a><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">123 Thoroughbred Ave<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Lexington, Great Commonwealth of KY<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Good Evening? Morning? I’m Not Sure,<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Let me preface this by saying I am not a writer nor a blogger.  My name is Justin, I don’t know how to blog so I decided to write my rebuttal to Jay in a formal letter.  This is not important but I feel that I’m pseudo blogging so I can say that.  Also, I am in no way representative of anybody but myself.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I know Jay via Twitter.  If I remember correctly we both replied to the same re-tweet or something like that.  I’m not in love with Jay so it’s not really a milestone in my life, but I think that’s what happened.  Honestly I don’t read his blog regularly.  But I don’t do a lot of things regularly.  One thing I do like to do is argue.  Jay does too. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglyMh5zTwBpmddl-r0KBlQOpXIMyfEiFmZUDlYm-v_W2cC6bknq7_9KgaewJRNLr7MXlMW-CRMGdYykULaL-QJ0QM6Ie6daOtpgs9MEvLwEW5pyxB9D91JVPZ4DiAV59W3Xbi9_K6YLtQ/s1600/kentucky-derby-horse-race.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglyMh5zTwBpmddl-r0KBlQOpXIMyfEiFmZUDlYm-v_W2cC6bknq7_9KgaewJRNLr7MXlMW-CRMGdYykULaL-QJ0QM6Ie6daOtpgs9MEvLwEW5pyxB9D91JVPZ4DiAV59W3Xbi9_K6YLtQ/s320/kentucky-derby-horse-race.jpg" width="263" /></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I knew in advance that he didn’t like the horse racing industry.  I myself am a Kentucky native.  So naturally I took exception to that.  But I always thought Jay just likes to find random shit to be outraged about like drones so I thought I’d take him up on the argument.  So here we are.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Also, I had no idea Jay was a “Libertarian” until today.   Seriously.  Anyways, on to the rebuttal. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I used to bet a lot.  Not on horses but on professional and collegiate sports.  It was a time when I worked second shift.  So when I got off work it was west coast basketball that was on due to the fact that it was late.  Next thing you know, I know everything about Washington and UCLA and how I feel they shoot too many jump shots.  This is also the time of Adam Morrison. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I hated him.  I hated his long hair, his emotion (he cried a lot), also hated Gonzaga in general.  So naturally I like to bet against him and Gonzaga because I hate the program.  Their games were always televised and they were a high profile program.  <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I would bet against the spread, stupid Morrison would go crazy and Gonzaga would beat the spread.  I think Gonzaga will win and stupid hippy Morrison would miss a meaningless free throw.  I remember one night where I bet with him and he did miss a meaningless free throw and St. Mary’s (I believe) threw up a meaningless heave that went in at the buzzer to kill the spread.   I lost.  <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">That’s the nature of gambling, it’s a gamble.  Jay’s friend was kind of right, something wasn’t right.  He lost a bet, and something wasn’t right.  That feeling he felt was that he lost.  It’s easy to blame a “fix”.  Some people, including me and Jay’s friend, are just bad gamblers.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Except for poker, I challenge any of you people to join a table me at a poker table.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Moving on.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">How is your Johnsonville Sausage made?  We all know it’s delicious.  But, what about poor Wilbur?  This guy is delicious.  How many of these guys go on to greener pastures?  Pretty sure none, unless they are your pet they end up in your Johnsonville Sausage or what the hell other pizza topping  Matt is eating at the time.  <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Now don’t get me wrong.  I am a Kentucky guy so it’s natural for me to come off like this, I get that.  I will say that I don’t hunt.  I’m not a gun guy, which I’m now learning Jay must be because he is a “libertarian”.   I don’t have a problem with hunting, just personally don’t get it and would never do it.  I do love animals.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">This is the point where I disappoint Jay because I really won’t debate him on how the ugly side of this industry can be at some times.  Reason being is that I feel if I’m going to take that leap then next thing you know I’m debating crazy PETA people about my love for taco’s and I have absolutely no interest in that.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I won’t provide specific studies about the industries economic impact on my fellow Kentuckians because I’m too lazy and numbers confuse me.  I do know that it is immense and generates a lot of money in a state that doesn’t have much.  How do I know?  I live in the Horse Capital of the World.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Again, I do love animals, notably horses.  But I like people more and feeding families is important.  Now if you happen to provide some numbers that the industry isn’t incredibly helpful to my fellow Kentuckians (which I doubt you can) then I probably still wouldn’t care.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I will finish by noting that Jay did not enjoy the track for the most part.  Which, is perfectly fine.  I don’t know what a race track in Arkansas is like.   I do, however, and invite Jay to Keeneland for one meet and I will show him around.  If the scenery, atmosphere and excitement doesn’t change his mind, than we will just have to agree to disagree.   We’ve done it before, no biggie.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Regards,<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="https://twitter.com/_JustinHenry_" target="_blank">@_JustinHenry_</a><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">P.S. Enjoy the Derby, get drunk and have fun.  I know I will. If you really like it keep up with rest of the Triple Crown.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div></div>

Justin's Defense of Horse Racing

On Tuesday Jayman posted about horse racing's problems with abuse and corruption . Today, Justin in Lexington posts his defense of horse...

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7.5 Weeks to Go!

This break from Weight Watchers was exactly what I needed (not that I'd ever recommend becoming pregnant if you're burned out on your healthy eating journey!).  It has been so nice, and such a breath of fresh air, to just relax about food and not worry about every single thing I eat.<br /><br />Having said that, I'm still looking forward to being done with pregnancy and getting back to weight loss.  It's fine whenever you have a legitimate excuse - <i>I'm gaining weight because I'm pregnant</i>.  Not so much when you're <i>not </i>growing a human!<br /><br />I'm trying to take things one day at a time right now.  Over the last few weeks, I've developed heart palpitations along with a lot of cramping.  I've been under the care of a cardiologist who thinks everything is okay, but I'm still awaiting the test results from some blood work and the heart monitor I wore for 24 hrs.  I also go for an echo-cardiogram (a sonogram of the heart) next Tuesday.  Heart palpitations are something that can be normal for pregnant women due to the fact that we're pumping 50% more blood through our bodies, and also because the heart enlarges by about 12% when pregnant.  I pray that all of this checks out okay! Personally, I think much of this is due to stress, and I'm thankful that my doctor recently granted me full time work-from-home status just this week.  That is a huge burden lifted!<br /><br /><i>This is a total sidebar... but this picture below was from our baby moon to Virginia Beach a few weeks back.  Joel thought he could rent this bike and ride me around for an hour or so.  Uhhhh - who thinks he was being a little too optimistic??? He didn't make it 2 hotel lengths on the boardwalk before he was out of breath and saying "I can't do this!"  I was cracking up!  So we rented this thing for 2 hours and returned it in 15 minutes.  I had a hard time pedaling because of my belly and the awkward seating.  God love him...</i><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMlmttDb3C2_QJ7c9lDretfj4DnrhCCL4WCEplSDTgYuwc3obhBfHBbEECiBHjEa9QGg9d9EYYU1jNW3saz98JGP8dSr6X0vEqlLZ6yOwAEWa3vQg-hBT1_qW_a2b-IKq4ELwBW-9VrHw/s1600/baby+shower+and+va+beach+010.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="285" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMlmttDb3C2_QJ7c9lDretfj4DnrhCCL4WCEplSDTgYuwc3obhBfHBbEECiBHjEa9QGg9d9EYYU1jNW3saz98JGP8dSr6X0vEqlLZ6yOwAEWa3vQg-hBT1_qW_a2b-IKq4ELwBW-9VrHw/s400/baby+shower+and+va+beach+010.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br />While that crappy doctor that gave me a hard time about my weight gain insisted that all the cramping I was having was normal, the recent doctor's visit on Monday proved otherwise.  He thought my cervix was too short, and sent me to the hospital for more testing.  Turns out everything <i>is </i>fine, and I am definitely having cramps (proven by the fetal heart rate monitor), but not strong enough to be contractions yet.  That's all great news!  So, the mean doctor might have been right, but I feel much better knowing I've been checked out instead of someone just telling me everything is okay. <br /><br />This weekend we're having maternity pictures taken, and next weekend we will be at a baby shower in Pennsylvania!  The end of pregnancy will be here before I know it, and I'm getting very nervous about it as each day passes.  I fear the pain, and I fear I won't be able to handle it even though I do want drugs.  Some people say not to get the drugs too early. Others tell me they got it and then it wore off by the time delivery came.  Still others tell me the drugs didn't even work for them.  Too much to worry about!

Baby Busbee 7.5 Weeks to Go!

This break from Weight Watchers was exactly what I needed (not that I'd ever recommend becoming pregnant if you're burned out on you...

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Honey Cat Cosmetics Review!

<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMc_gvehyphenhyphenUGDllxk644VsiTrdGltaBhHuR34oPidOm86ZcNRxXWC-YvCbga0au6nAEy7UW4HBDZRtd5KareNCMISqc_GZp-ESJLuPs3a-XnmgckbhHpbovbXY1svBm7JQ8wVweID_IYlk/s1600/honey+cat+cosmetics.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMc_gvehyphenhyphenUGDllxk644VsiTrdGltaBhHuR34oPidOm86ZcNRxXWC-YvCbga0au6nAEy7UW4HBDZRtd5KareNCMISqc_GZp-ESJLuPs3a-XnmgckbhHpbovbXY1svBm7JQ8wVweID_IYlk/s320/honey+cat+cosmetics.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></i><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Whether you have tired achy feet or just want to soak away the worries of the day in the tub then these amazing products are for you!</span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></i></div></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I know for me I love to relax by soaking in the tub with luxurious shower gels and a delicious treat such as chocolate!</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">So why not pamper yourself with <a href="http://www.honeycatcosmetics.com/cart/">Honey Cat Cosmetics</a> bath products such as salts, shower gels and more!</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">They make wonderful gifts for everyone! They have a wide selection on their website of the most amazing products imaginable.</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I was sent some of their beauty and bath products for review and couldn't wait for them to arrive. I waited for quite a long time but it was so worth the wait!</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I was super psyched when the package arrived and was excited to tear open the box. On the outside of the box there was leopard tape wrapped around which I thought was both creative and beautifully put together, so wasn't what was inside carefully wrapped in pink tissue paper.</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Love how each product had it's own unique name for it, and will explain them later on!</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I just have to say I am both delighted and honored to be doing this review. </span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Makes me feel a lot better when I pamper myself once in a great while with a luxurious shower gel, lotion or bath salts just makes me feel relaxed and ready to take on anything!</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">OK, the products I received I do have to say I love especially the bath products!</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><u><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Chick of The Sea Foaming Bath Crystals- </span></i></u></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I love to take a warm bath after a long day to relax and unwind and what better way to do so when bath salts are thrown in? I thought it was so cute how the salts came in a can that reminded me of a tuna fish can! Simply purrfecttt! Smelled amazingly delicious of chocolate and mint, leaving a light scent on my skin and soft to the touch.</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><u><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></u></div><div style="text-align: center;"><u><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Cat Tails For Two Grand Marnier & Apricot Shower Gel- </span></i></u></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Wow, smells good enough to eat! Will have you oohing and ah-hing for more, trust me! It smells that good! </span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><u><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Hiss Goodnight Pink Peppermint Lip gloss- </span></i></u></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Ready for the finishing touch for tonight's hot date? Swipe on Honey Cat's sexy sparkly pink gloss for a hiss goodnight! </span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><u><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Whisker Slickers Warming Cinnamon Lip Balm- </span></i></u></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Is it hot in here or is it just me? Time to wet those lips with the sweet cinnamon taste of Whisker Slickers Lip Balm because things are about to get hot in here! Smooth it on and let the purring begin.</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">You have to check them out! You can order them online here!</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Website:</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><a href="http://www.honeycatcosmetics.com/cart/"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">http://www.honeycatcosmetics.com/cart/</span></a></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Also connect with them on these social media sites!</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Face Book :</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><a href="https://www.facebook.com/HoneycatCosmetics"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">https://www.facebook.com/HoneycatCosmetics</span></a></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Twitter:</span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><i><a href="https://twitter.com/honeycattweets"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">https://twitter.com/honeycattweets</span></a></i></div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div>

Honey Cat Cosmetics Review!

Whether you have tired achy feet or just want to soak away the worries of the day in the tub then these amazing products are for you!   I kn...

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IRAN AND ISRAEL: IMPROVEMENT IN “RELATIONSHIP”?

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gte mso 10]><style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Normale Tabelle"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";} </style><![endif]--> <br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6ACn0FXCjF31A1uCJgANZb6SpAmlorO-E5yiGP1mtoA_JgCBS24IKpVpGxjIzTZiLUKP8OyQQP8RrK6ncobzQgpqQtBqNFz5JKmbBQJOq8jYC8KMykRjht9_sUqC1RcSV2ExozbH3qJot/s1600/images.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6ACn0FXCjF31A1uCJgANZb6SpAmlorO-E5yiGP1mtoA_JgCBS24IKpVpGxjIzTZiLUKP8OyQQP8RrK6ncobzQgpqQtBqNFz5JKmbBQJOq8jYC8KMykRjht9_sUqC1RcSV2ExozbH3qJot/s400/images.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: #134f5c;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">IRAN SOFTENS TUNE ON ISRAEL</span></b></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></span><br /><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Executive Summary</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">:</span></span></div><ul style="margin-top: 0in;" type="disc"><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Revised approach toward ISRAEL is in IRAN’S interests</span></b></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">IRAN is not "at war" with ISRAEL</span></b></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">ISRAEL, to some extent, shares IRAN'S misgivings regarding the threat of a jihadist takeover in SYRIA</span></b></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">On a national security level, IRAN considers ISRAEL not a top priority</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Softening stances between TURKEY, ISRAEL, IRAN, the only non-ARAB nations in the MIDDLE EAST, could alter the regions geopolitical landscape</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></li><li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">ISRAEL fosters unofficial ties with a considerable amount of ARAB nations</span></b></li></ul><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">REVISED APPROACH TOWARD ISRAEL IS IN IRAN’S INTERESTS</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-size: x-small;">By Kaveh L Afrasiabi via 247ureports & Asian Times</span><br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">With the IRANIAN presidential elections only two months away, foreign policy issues are hotly debated in the crowded field of candidates, and a chorus of prominent voices is aiming to lower the temperature with ISRAEL. </span><br /><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The rising softer tone may reflect a new elite consensus that a revised approach toward ISRAEL is in the nation's interests, in light of Tel Aviv's powerful influence in WESTERN capitals, TURKEY'S normalization of relations with ISRAEL, and the ARAB world's indifference toward the Palestinian problem, compared with IRAN'S traditional "overcommitment". </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">IRAN IS NOT "AT WAR" WITH ISRAEL</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Leading the march toward a new ISRAEL policy, former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who has expressed interest in joining the presidential race, has flatly declared that IRAN is not "at war" with ISRAEL. Calling for a non-confrontational foreign policy, Rafsanjani has criticized President Mahmud Ahmadinejad for inflammatory rhetoric that has backfired on IRAN. See: <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/29/rafsanjani-iran-israel-war_n_3177861.html">http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/29/rafsanjani-iran-israel-war_n_3177861.html </a></span></div><div style="text-align: right;"></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilhnaLKi5JIiwQqJuLRsroSaWtFutHLTu_wKUk73G9e7DmFubJ0O2L-MkzhXVIDBZzols1jsQxVGjNXNKyAMY0f1Va60aiYTovJ-qB9vgfcediZ5N40gLTtm2mYdh37Lk256fPP3Rxqp0S/s1600/DE0DA99B-9880-4B7C-9AFD-35337BF80394_w640_r1_s.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilhnaLKi5JIiwQqJuLRsroSaWtFutHLTu_wKUk73G9e7DmFubJ0O2L-MkzhXVIDBZzols1jsQxVGjNXNKyAMY0f1Va60aiYTovJ-qB9vgfcediZ5N40gLTtm2mYdh37Lk256fPP3Rxqp0S/s320/DE0DA99B-9880-4B7C-9AFD-35337BF80394_w640_r1_s.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani running for re-Election</span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Echoing this sentiment, two other potential presidential elections, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Tehran's mayor, and Gholam Ali Haddad Adel, a conservative lawmaker who is close to the Supreme Leader, have also seen fit to criticize Ahmadinejad's "denial of Holocaust" as a campaign issue. </span><br /><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">"Suddenly, the issue of the Holocaust was raised without any attention to its repercussions and impacts. Did that have any benefit for the progress of IRAN and the Palestinians?" Ghalibaf was quoted in the IRANIAN media as saying. The question now is whether Ali Akbar Velayati, a former foreign minister who advises the Supreme Leader and has formed an alliance with Ghalibaf and Adel for the coming race, will publicly express a similar sentiment. </span><br /><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br />Irrespective, the fact that some leading politicians have explicitly distanced themselves from the Ahmadinejad administration's hardline anti-ISRAEL policy reflects the depth and seriousness of policy debates in today's IRAN and underscores the ruling elite's growing concerns about the effects of IRAN'S isolation due to the nuclear crisis. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">ISRAEL, TO SOME EXTENT, SHARES IRAN'S MISGIVINGS REGARDING THE THREAT OF A JIHADIST TAKEOVER IN SYRIA</span></b></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /><br />As a result of the impasse over the country's nuclear program, IRAN'S status at the OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) cartel has slipped and will likely slide even further in the coming years if the WESTERN boycott of IRAN'S energy sector, which is in dire need of modernization, continues and the Gordian knot of the nuclear standoff is not somehow resolved. That is a near-impossible task as long as ISRAEL blocks IRAN-WEST nuclear diplomacy and a broader regional diplomacy covering such issues as the future of SYRIA. <br /><br />Concerning SYRIA, some Tehran analysts have concluded that some ISRAELI politicians share Tehran's misgivings regarding the threat of a Jihadist takeover there. Such a prospect, pushed for by the conservative SAUDIS, poses a serious national security threat to ISRAEL - that often toys with the notion of a "staged anti-IRAN" strategy that would knock off Damascus first as a prelude for regime change in IRAN. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring Comment: </span></b><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">As mentioned numerous times on this blog, warmongering rhetoric’s between ISRAEL and IRAN are convenient for both countries in order to gain geo strategic leverage as well as bargaining chips for future geopolitical, strategic as well as economic negotiations on various issues concerning the MIDDLE EAST, be it SYRIA, the Palestinian issue, LEBANON <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>etc. On should not forget that ISRAEL already fosters unofficial ties with a considerable amount of ARAB nations, thus it would not come as a surprise if one day it emerges that ISRAEL has done, or is doing “business” with IRAN. In view of these facts it seems rather unlikely that ISRAEL will ever launch an attack on IRAN or vice versa. </span></span></span><br /><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></span></span><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>In October 2012 Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring wrote: </b></span></span></span></span><br /><span style="color: blue;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: small; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></span><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">In recent past mainstream media and ISRAEL itself, increasingly stipulated that it is pushing for a preemptive airstrike on IRAN. Looking at ISRAEL history and how it conducts its wars and covert operations, it becomes imminent that it relies heavily on the element of surprise. Such was the case during most of its wars, rescue operations such as Entebbe, UGANDA in 1976, the IRAQI nuclear reactor air strike in 1981 and the alleged SYRIAN nuclear reactor airstrike in 2007. Thus as long as ISRAEL is “threatening” to attack IRAN on a daily base, and media coverage is in full swing, one can be sure that no such strike is imminent, for the element of surprise is lost. In most likelihood, ISRAEL’S threats of attacking IRAN and at the same time urging the USA to set a red line are calculated tactics and strategies in order to obtain certain concessions from the USA and indeed other allies. In most likelihood ISRAEL pursues a much more complex goal with its warmongering rhetoric’s against IRAN, than really intending to attack IRAN, one that will give ISRAEL inevitably some significant advantage, be it geopolitical, strategically or economically. </span></span></span></span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: small;"></span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">THE KEY FACTOR FOR ISRAEL’S DECISION MAKING: IRAN’S “PRESENCE” IN SYRIA</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"></span></span></span></span></div><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: small;"></span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: small;"></span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The minute ISRAEL and the media stop mentioning air strikes against IRAN that is the time one should become concerned, for that is the time when an attack is most likely imminent. (Given that the result of such attack will provide huge geostrategical and political advantages for ISRAEL). For the time being the saber rattling are just geopolitical tactics. Nevertheless, the chances of ISRAEL launching an airstrike against IRAN’S nuclear facilities are unlikely, especially with IRAN’S “presence” in SYRIA and SYRIA’S Bio-Chemical arsenal at its disposal. Current rhetoric’s by ISRAEL, USA and IRAN are primarily here to reshuffle the geopolitical landscape as well as counteract the current geostrategical shift occurring in the region due to new findings of natural resources and increased power struggle between Sunni and Shiite  Muslims, as well as TURKEYS increased muscle flexing in order to become the key player in the region.</span></span></span></span></div><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: small;"></span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: small;"></span></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="color: blue;"></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><span style="color: blue;">Israel’s “warmongering” against IRAN is a well orchestrated strategy in order to gain geopolitical and economic concessions and advantages from the USA and its allies. Under current conditions ISRAEL will never initiate a full scale attack against IRAN.  Nevertheless one should be aware that all current assumptions, analysis, opinions regarding the Israel - Iran confrontation is based on information fed to the broad public and media by the upper echelons of world politics. No one knows what wheeling and dealings regarding IRAN, SYRIA, ISRAEL, SAUDI ARABIA, the USA, TURKEY etc. are currently going on behind closed doors.</span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: blue;"> Read the entire <span style="font-size: small;">article<span style="font-size: small;">  </span><span style="font-size: small;">at: <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/10/israel-azerbaijan-and-kazakhstan_6.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/10/israel-azerbaijan-and-kazakhstan_6.html</a></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div><span style="font-size: small;"></span><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: small;"></span><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><span style="text-decoration: none;"><br /></span></span></u></b></span></div><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Background Information: </span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/israel-and-iran-airstrike-unlikely.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/israel-and-iran-airstrike-unlikely.html</a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/israel-iran-syria.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/israel-iran-syria.html</a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/syria-israel-iran-and-usa.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/syria-israel-iran-and-usa.html</a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br />The problem with that strategy, however, is the underlying assumption that IRAN is more threatening than the conservative Sunni bloc headed by SAUDI ARABIA, or that ISRAEL can indeed afford to "shuffle the cards" so dangerously as to tamper with the IRANIAN buffer against the ARAB bloc. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbaTc4IksoT9-QcCMJkXVX_iaMUFJKJEcwbhR03aDEyjGJgcBVurxsKObFXVQD8z9v0Ycnuun7cFyWSYCSBK0LKkJfUnMphwg4qDgDCWXQ0j-bLohisdl_UIa3qcfRnNi0kMb6ZZ73Y_nv/s1600/no-war-iran-israel.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbaTc4IksoT9-QcCMJkXVX_iaMUFJKJEcwbhR03aDEyjGJgcBVurxsKObFXVQD8z9v0Ycnuun7cFyWSYCSBK0LKkJfUnMphwg4qDgDCWXQ0j-bLohisdl_UIa3qcfRnNi0kMb6ZZ73Y_nv/s1600/no-war-iran-israel.jpg" /></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Consequently, the overall context of multiple crises in the MIDDLE EAST, and a rapidly shifting balance of forces, has raised the prospect of a de-escalation of the IRAN-ISRAEL conflict, which has both nuclear and non-nuclear connotations. <br /><br />Lest we forget, the origins of the IRAN-CONTRA affair of the 1980s, whereby ISRAEL pushed Washington to supply IRAN with missiles in order to prevent an IRAQI victory, were rooted in a cold calculation of the regional balance of power. That particular episode is certainly not devoid of precious insights with respect to the "policy dilemmas" faced by both Tehran and Tel Aviv today; that is, how to maintain their respective "red lines" in the face of the onslaught of a Salafi (Wahhabi) that is fundamentally opposed to "apostate Shi'ites" as well as Zionism. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">ON A NATIONAL SECURITY LEVEL, IRAN CONSIDERS ISRAEL NOT A TOP PRIORITY</span></b></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #cc0000;"> </span><br /><br />IRAN'S "red line" on ISRAEL is primarily an ideological one that has been a hallmark of the regime's identity for the past 34 years, that is, since the inception of the Islamic Republic. On the national security level, given ISRAEL'S distance with IRAN and IRAN'S primary preoccupation with its more pressing national security worries - in IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN, the PERSIAN GULF and the CAUCASUS - ISRAEL does not figure prominently. In fact ISRAEL is regarded an "out of area" issue by many IRANIAN policy analysts. <br /><br />In other words, there is a bit of a "lack of fit" between the ideological and national security requirements as regards ISRAEL, which can no longer be ignored by policy makers in Tehran who are keen on ending the nuclear crisis and putting the country back on the path of economic progress, in light of depressing reports that only a third of the Fourth Economic Plan has been implemented. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Background Information:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> <span style="color: #134f5c;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">IRAN:</b> </span></span><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;"><span style="color: #134f5c;">WEAPON FOR CHANGE – DEMOGRAPHY</span> at: </span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/10/iran.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/10/iran.html</a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="color: #cc0000;">SOFTENING STANCES BETWEEN TURKEY, ISRAEL, IRAN, THE ONLY NON- ARAB NATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, COULD ALTER THE REGIONS GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE </span><br /><br /></span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Any suggestions that IRAN should ameliorate its tough anti-ISRAEL stance is, ideologically speaking, troublesome and bound to cause internal frictions. If this is a mere 'tactical' maneuver for the sake of the presidential race, this is unlikely to bring about any tangible difference in ISRAEL'S anti-IRAN stance as dutifully duplicated by WESTERN governments. Yet, if it signals a strategic re-thinking on IRAN'S part, then this would have multiple side-effects both at home and regionally, particularly among IRAN'S LEBANESE allies, thus warranting a delicate balancing act. <br /><br />According to a Tehran political analyst who spoke to the author on the condition of anonymity, how ISRAEL responds to "these feelers from Tehran" can be important. "If ISRAEL sends the right signal, then Tehran's politicians know there is a 'light at the end of tunnel'," said the Tehran analyst, adding that ISRAEL'S "constant threats" have caused a "siege mind-set in Iran that is unhealthy." </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibbitfiBB7LDk4HNl5bxJTEHvw6SIMP0llESkAUknUXhVztCSMrr8e-vmc1MSNDM6xZyA8bdLAvsfjDKydbDLFbhcv-80CzNuQr4TI3yfabkH-qKAOLp1lNO1FsM2ru0BYFgM0Rcb75gVS/s1600/israel_iran.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibbitfiBB7LDk4HNl5bxJTEHvw6SIMP0llESkAUknUXhVztCSMrr8e-vmc1MSNDM6xZyA8bdLAvsfjDKydbDLFbhcv-80CzNuQr4TI3yfabkH-qKAOLp1lNO1FsM2ru0BYFgM0Rcb75gVS/s1600/israel_iran.jpg" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">On the other hand, if ISRAELI politicians choose, they can even use TURKEY as important interlocutor with Tehran, in light of the three countries' status as the only non-ARAB nations in the MIDDLE EAST. An indirect Tehran-Tel Aviv dialogue can thus be established and important issues such as the future of SYRIA discussed, as a part and parcel of a concerted effort to disallow Damascus' fall in the hands of radical Sunni Islamists. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Without doubt, the prerequisite for such drastic foreign policy revisions is a 'cognitive re-mapping' as to what constitutes the greatest threats to each county's national security interests, particularly since ISRAEL'S right-wing politicians have demonized IRAN as the "biggest existential threat" to ISRAEL. The message from Rafsanjani and others in IRAN is that it is time for ISRAEL to re-think this inapt conclusion. </span><br /><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /></span></div>

IRAN AND ISRAEL: IMPROVEMENT IN “RELATIONSHIP”?

IRAN SOFTENS TUNE ON ISRAEL Executive Summary : Revised approach toward ISRAEL is in IRAN’S interests IRAN is not "at war" with I...

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Will Obamacare work? A new study out of Oregon challenges shows universal health care’s limits - Ray Fisman - Slate Magazine

<base href="data:"><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 14px; color: black; text-align: left; "><div class="text parbase section" style="margin: 1.5em 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: verdana, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; ">In 2008, the state of Oregon initiated an ambitious health care policy that allowed researchers to <a href="http://www.nber.org/oregon/" style="color: rgb(86, 129, 140); text-decoration: none; " target="_blank">shed light</a><a name="_GoBack" style="color: rgb(0, 102, 153); text-decoration: none; "></a> on the effects of guaranteeing Medicaid coverage for low-income adults. The results have been closely followed in large part because insurance for the poor is a major component of the <a href="http://www.healthcare.gov/law/" style="color: rgb(86, 129, 140); text-decoration: none; " target="_blank">Affordable Care Act</a>—aka <a href="http://obamacarefacts.com/obamacare-facts.php" style="color: rgb(86, 129, 140); text-decoration: none; " target="_blank">Obamacare</a>—that will soon be rolled out across the country.</div></div><div class="text parbase section" style="margin: 1.5em 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: verdana, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; ">A <a href="http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1212321" style="color: rgb(86, 129, 140); text-decoration: none; " target="_blank">study</a> published on Wednesday in the <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-style: italic; ">New England Journal of Medicine</em> reports that—at least as far as health outcomes are concerned—the Oregon Medicaid experiment hasn't lived up to the hopes of many universal care advocates. Two years after getting randomly assigned to Medicaid coverage, recipients fared no better than a control group of uninsured, low-income Oregonians in tests for hypertension, cholesterol, and diabetes treatment—all medical conditions that can be managed with proper care. The Medicaid recipients <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-style: italic; ">did </em>report much lower rates of depression and—perhaps relatedly—were much less likely to be on shaky financial footing than those in the control group. But the Oregon study's findings indicate that the claim that universal health care on its own will make Americans healthier, at least in these particular dimensions, may be wishful thinking.</div></div><div class="text parbase section" style="margin: 1.5em 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: verdana, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; ">The Oregon Medicaid experiment was initiated in 2008, when the state opened a waiting list for a limited number of new spots in the Oregon Health Plan Standard. OHP Standard provided Medicaid insurance to poor, able-bodied adults who didn't meet the usual conditions for Medicaid. Nearly 90,000 Oregonians applied for the 10,000 slots, and the state picked the lucky Medicaid recipients by lottery. This gave researchers a group of insurance applicants who were identical in every way. If the lottery winners ended up in better health, it wouldn't be because of some pre-existing condition or circumstance: Their insurance status was quite literally the luck of the draw.</div></div><div class="text parbase section" style="margin: 1.5em 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: verdana, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; ">The <a href="http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2012/05/03/qje.qjs020.full.pdf" style="color: rgb(86, 129, 140); text-decoration: none; " target="_blank">early results</a> from the experiment, based on surveys performed a year following initial Medicaid assignment and released in the summer of 2011, seemed promising. I described them for <strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; "><em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-style: italic; ">Slate</em></strong> in an article titled "<a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_dismal_science/2011/07/does_health_coverage_make_people_healthier.html" style="color: rgb(86, 129, 140); text-decoration: none; ">Does Health Coverage Make People Healthier?</a>" The answer then was a tentative yes: Oregon Medicaid applicants who were randomly assigned to receive insurance reported that they utilized more preventive care, felt in better health, were more stable financially, and overall just a whole lot happier than those who didn't win the insurance lottery. At the time, conservative commentators cautioned that the liberal media—of which I am a proud member—were <a href="http://www.cato.org/blog/obamacare-supporters-are-over-interpreting-oregon-medicaid-study" style="color: rgb(86, 129, 140); text-decoration: none; " target="_blank">overhyping the study's implications</a>. The results were promising but far from conclusive; they weren't based on actual health outcomes but instead things like health care usage (trips to the doctor, use of preventive care, and so on) and self-reported health status ("Are you in poor, fair, or excellent health?") rather than actual health outcomes.</div></div><div class="text parbase section" style="margin: 1.5em 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: verdana, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; ">Now that the clinical results have started to come in, it's time for liberal media types like myself to eat some <a href="http://www.grouprecipes.com/98487/humble-pie.html" style="color: rgb(86, 129, 140); text-decoration: none; " target="_blank">humble pie</a>. Today's <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-style: italic; ">New England Journal </em>article presents a set of findings showing that Medicaid had no effect on a set of conditions where you would expect proper health management to make a difference. There are effective treatment protocols for hypertension, cholesterol, and diabetes, yet insurance status had no effect on blood pressure, cholesterol levels, or glycated hemoglobin (a measure of diabetic blood sugar control).</div></div><div class="text parbase section" style="margin: 1.5em 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: verdana, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; ">At the same time, some of the early hopes for the OHP <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-style: italic; ">are</em> borne out in the recent data: Medicaid recipients had much better mental health than their control-group counterparts. Based on clinical diagnostic criteria, the insured were about one-third less likely to be depressed than those not assigned to Medicaid. And the financial benefits of insurance also remained: Insurance proved particularly important in shielding study participants from medically induced financial catastrophe—5.5 percent of the control group reported spending more than 30 percent of their annual income on health care, as compared to just about zero for those assigned to receive Medicaid. According to <a href="http://economics.mit.edu/faculty/afink" style="color: rgb(86, 129, 140); text-decoration: none; " target="_blank">Amy Finkelstein</a>, an MIT economics professor and one of two principle investigators on the study, this is a critical observation since, "a primary purpose of health insurance is to protect individuals financially in the event of adverse health events, and our findings show that Medicaid does just that." (As in the earlier study, Medicaid also translated into more use of medical services, with coverage leading to increased doctor visits, use of medication, and compliance with recommended preventive care like mammograms and cholesterol screening.)</div></div><div class="text parbase section" style="margin: 1.5em 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: verdana, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; ">Overall, can the Oregon Medicaid experiment be declared a success or failure two years on? As the study's other principle investigator, <a href="http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/katherine-baicker/" style="color: rgb(86, 129, 140); text-decoration: none; " target="_blank">Katherine Baicker</a> of the Harvard School of Public Health, puts it, the findings are like a health insurance <a href="http://theinkblot.com/" style="color: rgb(86, 129, 140); text-decoration: none; " target="_blank">ink blot</a>—people see in it whatever they need to validate their existing position on Obamacare and universal coverage for the poor more generally. Those opposed to government care point to the lack of any measurable effect on health outcomes. Insurance advocates naturally highlight the importance of Medicare in reducing stress and its value as a financial cushion. Medicare is in large part health insurance that is meant to shield those covered from the ruinous effects of a health disaster. OHP seems to have been extremely effective in eliminating such catastrophic financial outcomes. And maybe two years isn't enough time for researchers to see improvements in health, which may accrue over the longer term (though the researchers have focused on health outcomes where improvements <em style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; font-style: italic; ">should </em>be seen within a two-year time frame).</div></div><div class="text parbase section" style="margin: 1.5em 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: verdana, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; ">At the same time, the findings should give pause to even those who are most committed to universal health insurance. We shouldn't expect the Affordable Care Act to make Americans healthier (except in terms of mental well-being). The ACA will put millions of low-income individuals across the country into Medicaid programs that look a lot like what's available in Oregon; such a rapid expansion could overwhelm health care service capacity. If anything, the results of the Oregon study might be optimistic about the results.</div></div><div class="text parbase section" style="margin: 1.5em 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: verdana, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; ">If you're committed to better health for the poor, though, the latest Oregon results are not a reason to give up on the cause completely. Rather, the Oregon experiment is yet another argument in favor of the increasingly common view that access to medical care is necessary but far from sufficient for good health. What's the use in prescribing statins to reduce cholesterol to patients who don't take their meds, continue to consume potato chips and soda unabated, and ignore health care providers' pleas to walk more and drive less?</div></div><div class="text parbase section" style="margin: 1.5em 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: verdana, sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 18px; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; "><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; font-size: 12px; font: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; ">But changing habits, compliance, and lifestyles is a much taller order, and viewing health care in this way can make the Affordable Care Act, despite its enormous ambitions, seem almost too timid or narrow in its focus. It requires that our conception of health care go beyond a passive delivery system of waiting for patients to come into the clinic and get out into the community to reach patients in their daily lives. At least some case studies of <a href="http://ftp.iza.org/dp4119.pdf" style="color: rgb(86, 129, 140); text-decoration: none; " target="_blank">successful health interventions</a> emphasize this brand of community-based systemic intervention. It may be that this approach of active outreach—whether delivered by the government directly or by <a href="http://cityhealthworks.com/" style="color: rgb(86, 129, 140); text-decoration: none; " target="_blank">medically minded social entrepreneurs</a>—may be what's required to make America healthier.</div></div></div><a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/the_dismal_science/2013/05/will_obamacare_work_a_new_study_out_of_oregon_challenges_shows_universal.single.html">http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/the_dismal_science/2013/05/will_obamacare_work_a_new_study_out_of_oregon_challenges_shows_universal.single.html</a><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 14px; color: black; text-align: left; "><br class="webkit-block-placeholder"></div>

Will Obamacare work? A new study out of Oregon challenges shows universal health care’s limits - Ray Fisman - Slate Magazine

In 2008, the state of Oregon initiated an ambitious health care policy that allowed researchers to  shed light  on the effects of guaranteei...

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