Argentine Shale Gas Production could alter the Southern Cones Geopolitical Landscape

<br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdnmKBmOpbC6hOnlcjZoyD1gD2DkBwbMlMshZx6NiOH8Jnhm-s0eQRGIi6hiLwWDT2WVr02_L7qbLMRUIZR2Y9Ab8071-G9H8bZ8qmrcc4MGvr8588MX2fdK0nTKFbyIOoYth1enpVw2Pt/s1600/Shale.jpeg.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdnmKBmOpbC6hOnlcjZoyD1gD2DkBwbMlMshZx6NiOH8Jnhm-s0eQRGIi6hiLwWDT2WVr02_L7qbLMRUIZR2Y9Ab8071-G9H8bZ8qmrcc4MGvr8588MX2fdK0nTKFbyIOoYth1enpVw2Pt/s320/Shale.jpeg.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shale"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shale</span></a></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal; text-align: center;">read also <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/malvinas-30-years-on_30.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/malvinas-30-years-on_30.html</a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><b>ARGENTINA: OBSTACLES TO SHALE GAS PRODUCTION </b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Via Stratfor Global Intelligence </span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><b>SUMMARY</b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">ARGENTINA relies heavily on fossil fuels for its energy needs. They account for roughly 89 percent of the country's overall energy consumption, and more than 40 percent of that consumption can be attributed to natural gas. ARGENTINE natural gas production peaked in 2006 at roughly 46 billion cubic meters (bcm), but since then production has not kept pace with demand. In fact, production has declined by 10 percent since 2006 while overall demand has increased by 4 percent. This trend culminated in 2008, when ARGENTINA became a net importer of natural gas after having been a net exporter since 1999. As of 2010, natural gas consumption outweighed production by approximately 3 bcm per year.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">But the future of natural gas in ARGENTINA may be more encouraging than recent production suggests, especially if Buenos Aires can harness the country's shale gas reserves. Estimates indicate that ARGENTINA has the third-highest recoverable shale gas reserves in the world -- roughly 22 trillion cubic meters (tcm). In addition to these potential reserves, ARGENTINA meets several other criteria that would enable it to quickly develop its resources and become a significant shale gas producer.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">The problem is that the ARGENTINE energy market operates under tight government control. This control is seen most visibly with government policies that have reduced the ability and will of energy companies to invest in new production. These policies have also placed a heavy financial burden on Buenos Aires, which in the past week revoked oil concessions for Repsol YPF, the country's largest energy company, accordingly. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1QSy96DGYkDCTBKvZGdULCmDF0vbUb3GfOstJ9xihGOVrxY8sjE73frmqNWgPVJvxo4NagTrPAMa62S4LmBiAHPYIMQ-5DgrvGe5ptT6z3W-tAh-Y30AX_uI2TbNxFccPULfE43CT0s5L/s1600/shale-gas-south-america.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1QSy96DGYkDCTBKvZGdULCmDF0vbUb3GfOstJ9xihGOVrxY8sjE73frmqNWgPVJvxo4NagTrPAMa62S4LmBiAHPYIMQ-5DgrvGe5ptT6z3W-tAh-Y30AX_uI2TbNxFccPULfE43CT0s5L/s320/shale-gas-south-america.jpg" width="246" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Comment by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring: The model of Government control over the energy market has proven rather successful in countries such as AUSTRIA and formally state owned oil and energy company OMV, not to mention GERMANY and other EUROPEAN countries. Privatization of state assets is an IMF doctrine which has proven negative in many parts of the word. Government interferences in energy markets did prove to be a successful concept in Europe. The results of such interventions are still visible in Europe’s energy market which has been partially privatized but where the state still has the final decision making power.</span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"></span><a href="http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5btt_news%5d=33704"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=33704</span></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://www.contrafedpublishing.co.nz/Energy+NZ/Vol.4+No.4+July-August+2010/Time+to+consider+State-owned+petroleum.html"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">http://www.contrafedpublishing.co.nz/Energy+NZ/Vol.4+No.4+July-August+2010/Time+to+consider+State-owned+petroleum.html</span></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">The volatility of ARGENTINA'S regulatory environment makes the country a risky opportunity for foreign companies that could provide much-needed capital and technological investments. Given the promising geology and infrastructure associated with ARGENTINA'S shale gas basins, this regulatory environment is perhaps the only impediment for quickly producing shale gas on a large scale. If the current negotiations with YPF can be brought to a mutually acceptable end, ARGENTINA could once again achieve energy self-sufficiency and become a net exporter of natural gas.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">ANALYSIS</span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">ARGENTINA has four shale basins, the most promising of which is the NEUQUEN BASIN in central-west ARGENTINA, where a portion of the country's conventional natural gas is produced. According to a 2011 U.S. Energy Information Administration assessment, this basin contains approximately half of ARGENTINA'S recoverable shale gas reserves.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt;">Conditions for Recovery</span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">To recover these reserves quickly, five conditions must be met. There must be high concentrations of shale gas; technical expertise in extraction techniques and working knowledge of the local geography; established pipeline infrastructure; access to fresh water (to complete the hydraulic fracturing treatments); and huge amounts of capital.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoYmevoaB9xU8zInP0K3jQE3UPPdjYn2uT-GO9FIH0MzRXegWoDaL4dEnIJoKcDjBgN_QC1_pTc9SelZULi9g2KHt3R9Bl9YGoB-Wqafi2lgSoHTSjiwKUTCPJ94YCJWJ2Djdmzlfa_VKO/s1600/EIA_World_Shale_Gas_Map.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoYmevoaB9xU8zInP0K3jQE3UPPdjYn2uT-GO9FIH0MzRXegWoDaL4dEnIJoKcDjBgN_QC1_pTc9SelZULi9g2KHt3R9Bl9YGoB-Wqafi2lgSoHTSjiwKUTCPJ94YCJWJ2Djdmzlfa_VKO/s640/EIA_World_Shale_Gas_Map.png" width="640" /></a></div><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">ARGENTINA appears to be in good shape on most of these fronts. Though exploration is not complete, the shale formations of the NEUQUEN BASIN are believed to contain 11 tcm of recoverable reserves. Moreover, ARGENTINA has a robust pipeline system. Decreased conventional natural gas production has left ARGENTINA with extra pipeline capacity, and the NEUQUEN BASIN, where the preliminary shale gas exploration efforts are taking place, is already a production site for traditional natural gas extraction. In other words, most of the necessary pipeline infrastructure is already in place. Also, several rivers, including the Limay and Neuquen rivers, are close enough to the NEUQUEN BASIN to provide the requisite fresh water for hydraulic fracturing.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">To gain the necessary expertise and technology for exploiting its shale gas resources, ARGENTINA likely will need both domestic and foreign companies to participate in exploration. Already REPSOL YPF and CANADA'S AMERICA PETROGAS have drilled several exploratory wells in NEUQUEN. Additionally, EXXONMOBIL, TOTAL SA and ROYAL DUTCH/SHELL have invested or plan to invest in ARGENTINE basins but have not drilled any wells. Notably, the geology of the NEUQUEN BASIN is thought to be similar to several U.S. basins, likely making the adaptation of current extraction techniques a simpler task.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">Getting financing may be the most difficult condition for ARGENTINA to meet. YPF has stated that developing the NEUQUEN BASIN'S VACA MUERTA field alone will cost $25 billion per year. To that end YPF is seeking foreign partners, including EXXONMOBIL, ITALY'S ENI and major CHINESE and RUSSIAN companies, to finance the operations. <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">But YPF is the major player in existing oil and natural gas production, and regardless of new investment, it will remain important for the development of the energy sector, both as a partner and as the company that controls the majority of ARGENTINA'S energy infrastructure.</b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">But the nature of Argentina's energy markets will complicate YPF's ability to attract investment partners. Low consumer prices have cut into energy companies' revenues, and in YPF's case, the company has been allowed to return 90 percent of its profits to stockholders, leaving little for investment into more exploration at a time when domestic production is in decline. Because demand outstrips production, the government has been forced to subsidize natural gas and fuel oil to ensure that domestic demand is met. As a result, the government has directly engaged YPF in a battle to push the company to invest in new energy production, most recently using the provincial governments to revoke oil concessions.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">The ultimate goal for the ARGENTINE government is to keep fuel prices low domestically while forcing companies to increase energy production. Buenos Aires may be willing to provide some money to achieve that goal, but the majority of technology and financing will have to come from foreign sources, including YPF. Some foreign companies may be put off by price controls and the ARGENTINE government's erratic behavior. <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">However, with only 2 bcm of additional natural gas needed to satisfy domestic consumption, the prospect of being able to export the natural gas may be enough of an incentive for foreign companies to brave the political winds of ARGENTINA. </b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt;">Regional Implications</span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">It is unclear whether ARGENTINA can overcome its own regulatory environment and produce shale gas on a large scale. If successful, the implications for ARGENTINA and the region are extensive. Shale gas has the potential to eliminate ARGENTINA'S natural gas deficit, which means the SOUTH AMERICAN country could resume exporting its natural gas -- if it can garner enough investment to move beyond the current stage of basic exploration. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">Buenos Aires would apply any initial production toward meeting domestic consumption. This will take at least an additional 3 bcm per year of production from the shale gas fields to eliminate the natural gas deficit and at least another 3 bcm per year from shale gas to increase overall natural gas production back to peak levels. Over the past decade, the UNITED STATES has increased shale gas production by more than 100 bcm per year. ARGENTINA would have to produce less than 10 percent as much as the UNITED STATES to regain export status.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">CHILE and BRAZIL are natural gas importers, and much of the natural gas they import comes from BOLIVIA and ARGENTINA. Given ARGENTINA'S decline in production and the 2007 nationalization of the natural gas sector in BOLIVIA, BRAZIL and CHILE have supplemented their natural gas imports with liquefied natural gas (LNG) from global markets -- a much more expensive operation than piping natural gas. CHILE would welcome lower natural gas prices brought on by increased ARGENTINE production, and BRAZIL would likewise benefit from increased production in the region.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">If ARGENTINA produced enough shale gas to exceed its own demands and the demands of neighboring states, ARGENTINA could look toward the global LNG market. Argentina already has two import terminals, which could be expanded to include export capabilities with time, planning and money. It is the opportunity for global expansion that will attract foreign capital.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">Despite ARGENTINA'S potential reserves, the extent of ARGENTINE shale gas production will not be realized for at least five years. Additional natural gas production would first liberate ARGENTINA from its own energy dependence and eliminate its natural gas deficit. From there, Buenos Aires could begin looking outward. But to do so, ARGENTINA must overcome its own obstacles to attract and then retain foreign investment.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;"> </span><b style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">Reading headlines such as: </span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">The Next Big Shale gas Boom </span></b><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;"></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><b><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;">How To Invest in Argentina</span></span></b><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="color: red;">’s Emerging Shale Oil & Gas Play</span></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><h1 class="entry-title" style="color: black; font-weight: normal;"> <span style="font-size: small;">indicate that energy demand and subsequent investment opportunities will  have oil companies accept even government control, simply because there is too much money involved and the profit margins big enough for all parties involved the rest is a  "tug of war" between politics and oil companies. </span></h1><h1> <a href="http://www.investmentu.com/2011/October/shale-gas-boom-in-argentina.html"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: windowtext;">http://www.investmentu.com/2011/October/shale-gas-boom-in-argentina.html</span></span></a></h1><h1><a href="http://www.blogger.com/%20http://oilandgas-investments.com/2011/oil-stocks/how-to-invest-in-argentinas-emerging-shale-oil-gas-play/"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: windowtext;"> </span></span></a></h1><h1 class="entry-title" style="font-weight: normal;"> <span style="font-size: small;"></span><span id="pronsetspell"><span class="pronsetspell" style="display: inline;"><span class="prondelim"></span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></h1><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://oilandgas-investments.com/2011/oil-stocks/how-to-invest-in-argentinas-emerging-shale-oil-gas-play/"><span style="font-size: small;">http://oilandgas-investments.com/2011/oil-stocks/how-to-invest-in-argentinas-emerging-shale-oil-gas-play/</span></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><br />

Argentine Shale Gas Production could alter the Southern Cones Geopolitical Landscape

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shaleread also http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/malvinas-30-years-on_30.htmlARGENTINA: OBSTACLES TO SHALE GAS PRODUCTION Via Stratfor Global Intelligence SUMMARYARGENTINA relies heavily on fossil fuels for i…

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bathroom pop

I just realized after reading that title that it might sound a bit...disturbing. Eww. But I got your attention, didn't I?<div><br /></div><div>The bedroom patching (and there is a lot of patching in a house with 65 year old plaster) is done and I'm ready to <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2012/03/grass-cloth-without-grass-cloth.html" target="_blank">get my paint on</a>. And just getting my painting supplies ready puts a bee in my bonnet to possibly paint my bathroom. I've got a whole damn hive in my bonnet these days, so what's one more bee, right?</div><div><br /></div><div>We did the <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/p/bathroom.html" target="_blank">bathroom </a>when I was 8.75 months pregnant with our first daughter and we have loved it just as it is for the past 4 1/2 years. But I'm ready for a refresh. Nothing huge, just a new paint color or something.</div><div><br /></div><div>I love the green in Kate Spade's bathroom with all of the white tile and the black on the shower curtain. </div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOcXVH8cdUCUTDO_j9LpNJ3qsqwyDvqgs9FAejYDMOO1xGut5dIQBZhSotkjgMLWBcsgK2ilM2zHabvkzowIi8fZ1y_rgVqBtMtgGaILfSqifzj5KYsyC1NXZcDRBqjDvY0H29kxdnfcAk/s1600/KateSpadebathroom.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOcXVH8cdUCUTDO_j9LpNJ3qsqwyDvqgs9FAejYDMOO1xGut5dIQBZhSotkjgMLWBcsgK2ilM2zHabvkzowIi8fZ1y_rgVqBtMtgGaILfSqifzj5KYsyC1NXZcDRBqjDvY0H29kxdnfcAk/s320/KateSpadebathroom.jpeg" width="316" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">via <a href="http://pinterest.com/pin/6896205649522648/" target="_blank">Pinterest</a></td></tr></tbody></table><div>Of course, Kate's green is a wonderful (and pricey) <a href="http://www.passementeries.com/scalamandre/wallpaper/zebras.htm" target="_blank">Scalamandre wallpaper</a> but <a href="http://www.benjaminmoore.com/en-us/paint-color/babyfern" target="_blank">Benjamin Moore's Baby Fern</a> would be close. </div><div><br /></div><div>Or, maybe the reverse. A graphic black and white combo with a pop of color would be fun. And really, doesn't everyone want to have fun in the bathroom?</div><div><br /></div><div>Kate strikes again with this bathroom that was featured in <i>House & Garden,</i> October 2004. (no, Kate Spade is not sponsoring this post. I wish.)</div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdM7pm0DEVQX77Z8ISLDiminTcdA0KsBmVgAo5TcA4pa22k7AaiDe6zxSni5Q1Y5hY-XTK2hCAg_IQ6LQbOoQ3ZVW7AurjFh6YM4AqRpY0pikTNXl2O6RvmDmE38Ld1BShGrLHZevhQKjq/s1600/kate-spade-perfection.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdM7pm0DEVQX77Z8ISLDiminTcdA0KsBmVgAo5TcA4pa22k7AaiDe6zxSni5Q1Y5hY-XTK2hCAg_IQ6LQbOoQ3ZVW7AurjFh6YM4AqRpY0pikTNXl2O6RvmDmE38Ld1BShGrLHZevhQKjq/s320/kate-spade-perfection.jpeg" width="263" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">via <a href="http://pinterest.com/pin/6896205649522639/" target="_blank">Pinterest</a></td></tr></tbody></table><div>Something for me to think about while I paint...the bedroom. One room at a time girlfriend!</div><div><br /></div><div>Do you ever get the urge to change a perfectly good room? Any rooms in your house that you're board with? </div><div><br /></div><div>Cheers to a good weekend!</div>

bathroom pop

I just realized after reading that title that it might sound a bit...disturbing. Eww. But I got your attention, didn't I?The bedroom patching (and there is a lot of patching in a house with 65 year old plaster) is done and I'm ready to get my paint o…

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Weigh In Friday & Other Successes

I've finally gotten around to updating my stats on the left sidebar.  I'm now down 29.9 lbs as of today!  I'm working on getting back down to my lowest weight yet, of 227.1 lbs (during Terrible Awful) so that I can feel good about wearing my weight loss bracelet again.  But I'm not going to discount my recent success - it feels good to be at <i>almost </i>a 30 lbs loss!  This week I took off 2.3 lbs - go me!<br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVa7f_q6xPnd1K1M8weaVtAA3KB8v-qbcHENDDzXJUJrLNt-PllZRX0GPAEYIQ7xV4sQfLadHmb6IHA2o_wNwFzcnWtM5JrN-quOSVqiXhHZkEqvn4m7cJ6DdkPc52k-OfYil0RbTMldc/s1600/Pansies.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVa7f_q6xPnd1K1M8weaVtAA3KB8v-qbcHENDDzXJUJrLNt-PllZRX0GPAEYIQ7xV4sQfLadHmb6IHA2o_wNwFzcnWtM5JrN-quOSVqiXhHZkEqvn4m7cJ6DdkPc52k-OfYil0RbTMldc/s400/Pansies.jpg" width="300" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">spring is in full swing in VA!</td></tr></tbody></table>A few weeks ago I <a href="http://the-big-weight.blogspot.com/2012/03/two-upcoming-5ks.html" target="_blank">wrote about the upcoming 5K's</a> I have for April and May.  I'm so excited to report that the donations are rolling in!  While the previous blog post only spoke of two 5K's, I've since enrolled in the Walk for MS (click on the badge on the left for more info) - another event that I wanted to participate in last year but couldn't due to a conflict with another walk.   To those who have donated, please know that they are much appreciated by myself and these organizations!  And to those who may still want to donate - there is still plenty of time!<br /><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKJOIsLgEkr3fOoWRalI_iTN5qR6irCfBZGUMge-rhb54d3QyJFUmwtdgeiPALX7VoU2b_zH4p4pKB8rUYk9YOIdLlj8EyBVWJBOUB3tbW_CVL8PcPBM8_nzqHZG8wncn7YdSsKU1FzmM/s1600/Tulips+2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKJOIsLgEkr3fOoWRalI_iTN5qR6irCfBZGUMge-rhb54d3QyJFUmwtdgeiPALX7VoU2b_zH4p4pKB8rUYk9YOIdLlj8EyBVWJBOUB3tbW_CVL8PcPBM8_nzqHZG8wncn7YdSsKU1FzmM/s400/Tulips+2.jpg" width="300" /></a></div><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnaIT4T49uYSAO9lkywwNlc84SgwSXJkJHI9Y3I0o_KpWCa8aUOR-5VxNisYfK7HYWRDIt4sotldv1fK-t5Uu5f34lb0aJHWmbf6T7UkEKfRINrVB7eT3fQJd_yWsGGIQ86NfWM0vxVyg/s1600/Tulips+1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnaIT4T49uYSAO9lkywwNlc84SgwSXJkJHI9Y3I0o_KpWCa8aUOR-5VxNisYfK7HYWRDIt4sotldv1fK-t5Uu5f34lb0aJHWmbf6T7UkEKfRINrVB7eT3fQJd_yWsGGIQ86NfWM0vxVyg/s400/Tulips+1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />I don't know about you, but I sure am looking forward to this weekend.  Heck, I'm looking forward to the entire month of April!  For starters, April is my birth month (April 4 to be exact!), Easter is just around the corner - my favorite Sunday, and lastly, every single weekend we have something planned.  I'm going to just pretend that those are all birthday celebration events :).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ88l81_9OysIZqOIGrQ5SgQiJAn7xkYmddkorY06R8takb9oQxwT2FyVKajfIezyBgbwX5J74qEbUm-mdpfktdpLma-dqgaEMCo3tFyAnaag3jElyKq3lIYW1isP_ewfE2IJh9_Bbi9k/s1600/Tulips+3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ88l81_9OysIZqOIGrQ5SgQiJAn7xkYmddkorY06R8takb9oQxwT2FyVKajfIezyBgbwX5J74qEbUm-mdpfktdpLma-dqgaEMCo3tFyAnaag3jElyKq3lIYW1isP_ewfE2IJh9_Bbi9k/s400/Tulips+3.jpg" width="300" /></a></div><br /><div style="color: #351c75;"><b>Do you have anything planned this weekend?  Are you an April baby?  If so, what day?  </b></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpuDWgwiQUCtcnvV-V6KQeOnw47Nfvr8gXxFRiSyGVmd2jaE4V-ikYe-6F095LGpThdRSmZmBan96wCxA-YEyNe4_RKG0nXwFjq8wyZUnZoSQl228jKe192CxBi9_HPHqx8yAbB3Ij-OQ/s1600/Tulips+4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpuDWgwiQUCtcnvV-V6KQeOnw47Nfvr8gXxFRiSyGVmd2jaE4V-ikYe-6F095LGpThdRSmZmBan96wCxA-YEyNe4_RKG0nXwFjq8wyZUnZoSQl228jKe192CxBi9_HPHqx8yAbB3Ij-OQ/s400/Tulips+4.jpg" width="317" /></a></div><br />Have a great 'on plan' weekend friends! <br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><i style="color: #999999;">*All pictures were taken with my Blackberry Torch outside of my office just this past week!*</i></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />

Great Strides Loss March for Babies March of Dimes Success Walk MS weigh in Weigh In Friday & Other Successes

I've finally gotten around to updating my stats on the left sidebar.  I'm now down 29.9 lbs as of today!  I'm working on getting back down to my lowest weight yet, of 227.1 lbs (during Terrible Awful) so that I can feel good about wearing my weight l…

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MALVINAS: 30 YEARS ON

<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMrGDKNKOIkYoJMx4ThcbjNP4mM8L03TJQpi8R51QYDOuxKuHBcta5rxefgd8RRYCZ5QTs0cdjGcetEzixIP9fXDwt3hDWMJ0u7LF_TnvsVU0kBqq1K7IaxqzI6VPt6WV2QC-azoyIXGSh/s1600/tasa-malvinas2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="337" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMrGDKNKOIkYoJMx4ThcbjNP4mM8L03TJQpi8R51QYDOuxKuHBcta5rxefgd8RRYCZ5QTs0cdjGcetEzixIP9fXDwt3hDWMJ0u7LF_TnvsVU0kBqq1K7IaxqzI6VPt6WV2QC-azoyIXGSh/s400/tasa-malvinas2.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Controversial Coffee mug sold in Malvinas souvenir-shops at the eve of the 30th anniversary of the Malvinas war</span>   </td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ARGENTINA: CORPORATE INTEREST VERSUS IMPARTIALITY</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Reading STRATFOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE analysis regarding the MALVINAS conflict between ARGENTINA and the UK one cannot avoid noticing certain bias towards ARGENTINA, for she does not adhered to the “Anglo Saxon” eco – political doctrines. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">For example STRATFOR writes</span></b><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">: </span><i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">A couple of recent developments have aggravated the countries' long-running dispute over ownership of the islands. First, significant offshore oil and natural gas reserves have been discovered near the FALKLANDS. Second, as the economic situation in ARGENTINA has deteriorated over the last decade, rhetoric regarding the MALVINAS has served as a useful tool for promoting nationalistic sentiment in the country.</span></i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b style="color: red;">Comment:</b> <span style="color: blue;">First of all the economic situation in ARGENTINA has not deteriorated over the last decade, (interesting that STRATFOR focuses on the last 10 years, the time the Kirchners’ took office and implemented unorthodox but successful fiscal policies which seemed to upset the International Financial Institutions eco political agenda) other then limited growth which was subject to the worldwide finance crisis. According to foreign economic sources,</span><span style="color: blue;"> </span><span style="color: blue;">ARGENTINE </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue;">'S </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue;">economy retracted only slightly, and thus is in good shape especially when compared with key industrial nations. Despite CHINA'S economic slowdown ARGENTINA still profits from never ending demand on agriculture products, thus the country is not endangered of run short of money. </span></span><br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Here are some facts and figures on Argentine</b></span></span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue;"></span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue;">'<b>s</b></span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b> Economy, one hardly will read in Argentine mainstream newspapers  such as Clarin and La Nacion</b></span></span></span></div></div><div style="color: black;"><br /></div><div style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>GDP - PURCHASING POWER PARITY 2012 COUNTRY RANKS, BY RANK</b></span></div><div style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: large;">Argentina ranks No. 22 out of 226 countries </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gdp_purchasing_power_parity_2012_0.html"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gdp_purchasing_power_parity_2012_0.html</span></a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>GDP - OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE 2012 COUNTRY RANKS, BY RANK</b></span></div><div style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: large;">Argentina ranks No. 28 out of 215 countries</span></div><div style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gdp_official_exchange_rate_2012_0.html">http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gdp_official_exchange_rate_2012_0.html</a></span></div><div style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></div><div style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>GDP - REAL GROWTH RATE(%) 2012 COUNTRY RANKS, BY RANK</b></span></div><div style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Argentina ranks No. 11 out of 214 countries</b></span></div><div style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gdp_real_growth_rate_2012_0.html">http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/gdp_real_growth_rate_2012_0.html</a></span></div><div style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></div><div style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>To view the entire statistics see: </b></span></div><div style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/argentina/argentina_economy.html">http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/argentina/argentina_economy.html</a>or</span></div><div style="color: black;"><br /></div><div style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/DE/Aussenpolitik/Laender/Laenderinfos/Argentinien/Wirtschaft_node.html">http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/DE/Aussenpolitik/Laender/Laenderinfos/Argentinien/Wirtschaft_node.html</a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: large;">To reiterate above: Soybean has reached a higher market price, reaching almost U$S 510 a ton. These results are explained by the strong demand from ASIA – since they are increasing meat demand and feed livestock with soybean. <a href="http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=soybeans">http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=soybeans</a></span></div><div style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></div><div style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: large;">This seems to be a trend that will remain stable despite any decrease in general demand and consumption around the globe, since food will remain in demand by markets. This has a positive impact for ARGENTINA as it ensures a consistent flow of dollars.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">MALVINAS DISPUTE: STRATFOR NEGLECTS TO MENTION ANTARCTICA AND FISHING INDUSTRY </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjQZWbanWvb-VchcIZlgOkPUZcB3P9Z5lhdut14EGy21uHR-rW8pVqWz4mXfvHY80OKB0Ma6gXz4eWpRZAUQkN6eS2eGHD_1y1JxvJeRUIKvan8SNmdflE1-4aQgSSX8rjyrqBn9jOCwSv/s1600/NSF.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjQZWbanWvb-VchcIZlgOkPUZcB3P9Z5lhdut14EGy21uHR-rW8pVqWz4mXfvHY80OKB0Ma6gXz4eWpRZAUQkN6eS2eGHD_1y1JxvJeRUIKvan8SNmdflE1-4aQgSSX8rjyrqBn9jOCwSv/s200/NSF.jpg" width="195" /></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Secondly STRATFOR mentions that recent oil and gas discoveries on the islands have aggravated ARGENTINA but fail to mention that the dispute is not only about gas and oil but also about ANTARCTICA and the FISHING INDUSTRY. See </span><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/02/from-mediterranean-persian-gulf-to.html"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/02/from-mediterranean-persian-gulf-to.html</span></a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">STRATFOR further writes: </span><i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Furthermore, ARGENTINA remains isolated from international credit markets and, with troubles meeting its own budgetary needs at home, it likely cannot afford a war. Nevertheless, Buenos Aires, aware of significant cuts to the UNITED KINGDOM'S defense budget, may sense an opportunity to challenge the UNITED KINGDOM'S stance.</span></i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ARGENTINE S NEW PILLAR: MINING INDUSTRY</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTHB9XRs_SkQjM9qbn1WYOWkl4V_5NKsN6ITFWPfPpM4x2Hz-kEWZN5hI5cI88VA6M637okLMphE3e9Zxf3KN3OPD5MhfYiA9Tc0cgzqYDFdsKqBmhxwa4cCllwy8HQc0UD-CiVUjETy8H/s1600/tipo-de-produccion-por-mina.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTHB9XRs_SkQjM9qbn1WYOWkl4V_5NKsN6ITFWPfPpM4x2Hz-kEWZN5hI5cI88VA6M637okLMphE3e9Zxf3KN3OPD5MhfYiA9Tc0cgzqYDFdsKqBmhxwa4cCllwy8HQc0UD-CiVUjETy8H/s400/tipo-de-produccion-por-mina.gif" width="400" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Economically Argentina has done rather well, considering that the country is expelled from international credit markets; something the IMF, World Bank and the Paris Club simply can’t accept. For reasons explained previously, Argentina is still in the position to meet its budgetary needs, much to the despair of the orthodox International Financial Initiations, who would like to see Argentina depending on their doctrines and demands, in order to get an even larger slice of the “agricultural and natural resources cake” the country has to offer. Last but not least one should not forget that mining in Argentina is only just beginning to evolve and for which foreign enterprises are fighting over in order to obtain the best deals for the future. See: </span><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2011/10/corporatocracy.html"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2011/10/corporatocracy.html</span></a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><b><span style="color: yellow;">The full Article from STRATFOR GLOBAL Intelligence reads as follows:</span></b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7jE65DHaXH_jx84EbGPY-9QJGsHRc8kM7fQbAlVHp1Tg3q_W8303yXfMfD5M2_hBhRvBZ0lEuAhaLInM3Lc57TyeGCzu0zFkZTvw2GOQ3Z5mZ18HqhJRz7adwWwZ4pYRI8Ze-v15IzWop/s1600/chilenos-malvinas.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7jE65DHaXH_jx84EbGPY-9QJGsHRc8kM7fQbAlVHp1Tg3q_W8303yXfMfD5M2_hBhRvBZ0lEuAhaLInM3Lc57TyeGCzu0zFkZTvw2GOQ3Z5mZ18HqhJRz7adwWwZ4pYRI8Ze-v15IzWop/s320/chilenos-malvinas.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">CHILE'S INTEREST IN THE FALKLAND ISLANDS DISPUTE</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Via Stratfor</span></i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Summary</span></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ARGENTINE President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner met with CHILEAN President Sebastian Pinera on March 15, just days after her meeting with BRITISH Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Jeremy Browne. In both meetings, ARGENTINA'S claim of sovereignty over the BRITISH FALKLAND Islands (known in ARGENTINA as the MALVINAS) was the topic of discussion. The UNITED KINGDOM and ARGENTINA have been courting CHILE'S support in the longstanding bilateral dispute because CHILE is the only country in the Southern Cone with a vested interest in the UNITED KINGDOM'S maintaining control over the FALKLANDS.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Tension has been rising between ARGENTINA and the UNITED KINGDOM in the run-up to April 2, the 30th anniversary of the FALKLANDS War. CHILE, which has its own territorial disputes with neighboring countries, does not wish to see border changes in its region, but it also must take care not to upset relations with a regional player.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Analysis</span></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">A couple of recent developments have aggravated the countries' long-running dispute over ownership of the islands. First, significant offshore oil and natural gas reserves have been discovered near the FALKLANDS. Second, as the economic situation in ARGENTINA has deteriorated over the last decade, rhetoric regarding the MALVINAS has served as a useful tool for promoting nationalistic sentiment in the country. </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Despite aggressive rhetoric and the bitter memories ARGENTINES harbor from the war, a military confrontation over the disputed islands is unlikely. ARGENTINA has not modernized its armed forces since the military dictatorship fell in 1983, in part because of the extremely poor relationship between the military and the current administration. Furthermore, <b>ARGENTINA remains isolated from international credit markets and, with troubles meeting its own budgetary needs at home,</b> it likely cannot afford a war. Nevertheless, Buenos Aires, aware of significant cuts to the UNITED KINGDOM'S defense budget, may sense an opportunity to challenge the UNITED KINGDOM'S stance. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">To push the UNITED KINGDOM toward a settlement, ARGENTINA has threatened to appeal to the UNITED NATIONS and has used the UNION OF SOUTH AMERICAN NATIONS (UNASUR) to impose a blockade against FALKLAND-flagged maritime vessels. ARGENTINA has also threatened to declare as illegal any oil activity in the waters surrounding the islands. BRAZIL, URUGUAY and CHILE have all agreed to the blockade. BOLIVIA, ECUADOR, PERU, PARAGUAY and VENEZUELA have all expressed support. Of these countries, BRAZIL and CHILE are the most important.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">BRAZIL has many reasons to support Buenos Aires. BRAZIL is not only a major trading partner of ARGENTINA'S, but it is also the creator of UNASUR and has an interest in proving that the multilateral forum can be effective. BRAZIL'S support of ARGENTINA'S claims, however, likely will not extend to approval of military action. With major offshore oil projects in the works, a conflict in the South Atlantic could risk key strategic interests that BRAZIL'S military is not yet prepared to defend. BRAZIL has thus hedged its agreement to the blockade on FALKLAND-flagged vessels by saying it will allow any BRITISH-flagged vessels through the blockade, regardless of their origin. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Though BRAZIL is a much larger country, CHILE is in many ways more important regarding this issue. Currently, CHILE is the only South American country with direct flights to the FALKLAND Islands. Any blockade would thus require CHILE to go beyond merely restricting port access. Furthermore, CHILE has undermined ARGENTINA'S claim to the islands in the past: During the war in 1982, CHILE supplied intelligence about ARGENTINE military and radar systems to the UNITED KINGDOM.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><i style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">CHILES NEVER-ENDING TERRITORIAL CLAIMS <span style="font-size: small;">(title added </span></span></b></span></i><b><span style="color: blue; font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><i>by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring</i></span></span></b><i><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><span style="color: blue; font-size: small;">)</span></span></b></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiThAEUVJsXQ-43pJH10DK8oqaOX8MOapAL9rvqmvOCXxkxgEXeAmmHj3pm3c1lX6foUiZXzEbOq_jyjNW0YM4LP5iySZ5Goyz3PGCdbdDa-En0W__AZUM2EcWvwUMbmqFT04qcggG9IKce/s1600/470px-Map_of_the_War_of_the_Pacific.en.svg.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiThAEUVJsXQ-43pJH10DK8oqaOX8MOapAL9rvqmvOCXxkxgEXeAmmHj3pm3c1lX6foUiZXzEbOq_jyjNW0YM4LP5iySZ5Goyz3PGCdbdDa-En0W__AZUM2EcWvwUMbmqFT04qcggG9IKce/s640/470px-Map_of_the_War_of_the_Pacific.en.svg.png" width="499" /></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">In addition to a longstanding rivalry with ARGENTINA, CHILE has an interest in preventing any border shifts in the region because the country has <b>territorial disputes with BOLIVIA and PERU</b>. The UNITED KINGDOM established its rule over the Falkland Islands in 1833; by agreeing that the islands belong to ARGENTINA, CHILE would set a precedent that could affect BOLIVIA and PERU'S territorial claims over the region of northern CHILE, which CHILE conquered in the 1879-1883 War of the Pacific. The war left BOLIVIA landlocked and created 37,900 square kilometers (14,600 square miles) of contested territory along the maritime border with PERU. BOLIVIA plans to bring a lawsuit against CHILE at THE HAGUE this year, claiming sovereign access to the Pacific coast. PERU presented its case against CHILE at THE HAGUE in 2008, and a decision on the case may be made in 2012. <i style="color: blue;">CHILE appears to have a never-ending thrive for “land grabbing”.(comment in blue added by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring)</i></span></span><br /><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> <span style="font-size: small;">See<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;">:</span> </span><a href="http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_the_War_of_the_Pacific.en.svg%20">http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_the_War_of_the_Pacific.en.svg </a></span></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Realizing the regional interests in this issue, the UNITED KINGDOM over the last six months has sent top diplomats to BRAZIL and CHILE to seek support -- or at least neutrality -- from regional players as London attempts to settle its dispute with ARGENTINA. Although BRAZIL has no interest in a South Atlantic war, CHILE has an active interest in the FALKLANDS' remaining BRITISH. Though Pinera has publically said that CHILE supports ARGENTINA, he has at the same time asserted that CHILE has a special relationship with the UNITED KINGDOM. Going forward, CHILE will continue to be stuck in the middle of this dispute, supporting the BRITISH while trying to soothe relations with an increasingly confrontational ARGENTINA.</span></span></div>

MALVINAS: 30 YEARS ON

Controversial Coffee mug sold in Malvinas souvenir-shops at the eve of the 30th anniversary of the Malvinas war   ARGENTINA: CORPORATE INTEREST VERSUS IMPARTIALITYReading STRATFOR GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE analysis regarding the MALVINAS conflict between A…

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