Sandy's Accurate Forecasting In Two Snapshots

In the wake of today's "anniversary" of Sandy, it goes without saying that the storm was accurately forecast by several and by the European computer model. We briefly touched on the Euro's track record last week...and it doesn't go without repeating how good of a job it did in comparison to the GFS with handling the storm several days out.<br /><br />This was the forecast a week prior to Sandy. Euro 1, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dalrphHivOs" target="_blank">GFS</a>...(click the link to get an idea of where I'm going with it).<br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEia0vCPIx7rKXNlJHygewr_5uwzm6uz20L95qJzwPHeOlGq2nQQfAnjCccfst3vJ0u4i5pqvSIWaUik3kjkFCY3h3-U-uVVhRHg0JRvf_0580deokhkJpNao_yUFeUR-JQ5jamI08qP1dgi/s1600/102412-PM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEia0vCPIx7rKXNlJHygewr_5uwzm6uz20L95qJzwPHeOlGq2nQQfAnjCccfst3vJ0u4i5pqvSIWaUik3kjkFCY3h3-U-uVVhRHg0JRvf_0580deokhkJpNao_yUFeUR-JQ5jamI08qP1dgi/s400/102412-PM.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Modeling from Tuesday 10/23/2012 -- graphic from Storm Vista Weather Models.</td></tr></tbody></table><br />Granted, the GFS did improve as we closed in but the Euro's relative accuracy in some type of East Coast hit was the calling card.<br /><br />The other accurate forecast was that of the National Hurricane Center regarding the storm's track, its "cone" of impact, and where they projected the storm to head.  Beginning with the Thursday 10/25/12 11 AM outlook, their forecast track rarely wavered over the succeeding five days, staying largely within a swath of real estate between Bethany Beach and Long Beach Island.<br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP-3GE8h9Sm2kpFbFipci70RpWmJcBEsYfl00mB8W5gD5bcPrXLLOlDgHez4dW8VJqSbtTnxXxtbC20CjgbmG-XLx8ncU4SKMu4hlHZme3crbKwVvbHWSkwTrznrSgAQOq8pT8IU4QIlXX/s1600/103013-SANDY.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="566" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP-3GE8h9Sm2kpFbFipci70RpWmJcBEsYfl00mB8W5gD5bcPrXLLOlDgHez4dW8VJqSbtTnxXxtbC20CjgbmG-XLx8ncU4SKMu4hlHZme3crbKwVvbHWSkwTrznrSgAQOq8pT8IU4QIlXX/s640/103013-SANDY.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/Geostrophic/status/395224244499410944" target="_blank">Corey Pieper</a></td></tr></tbody></table><br />Given we're talking about a forecast of a storm that had just cleared Cuba and had about 1000 miles of real estate yet to travel, that's pretty darn accurate forecasting from the National Hurricane Center.  The impacts that the <a href="http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2013/10/one-year-ago-this-afternoon.html" target="_blank">National Weather Service communicated out</a> were awesomely accurate as well -- and the words of caution were very wise.<br /><br />Tomorrow, we'll talk about the "lesson" of Sandy -- where we needed to improve communication in this business and whether or not the weather industry and weather community has figured it out yet. Not sure that's the case universally, yet, but I think there has been some progress on this.

past weather Sandy weather anniversary Sandy's Accurate Forecasting In Two Snapshots

In the wake of today's "anniversary" of Sandy, it goes without saying that the storm was accurately forecast by several and by the European computer model. We briefly touched on the Euro's track record last week...and it doesn't go without repeating …

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One Year Ago This Afternoon

Sandy's approach to the Delaware Valley was largely "known" by October 25th and 26th, with most guidance suggesting impact across our region. What had not been completely settled was where the storm's center was going to come ashore -- modeling was still varying in specific landfall points...but that was immaterial given the size of the storm. By Saturday and Sunday, most modeling was suggesting a South Jersey landfall point for the storm as it continued north and then northwest towards us.<br /><br />Sunday afternoon (which was the 28th), the local National Weather Service office released this powerful statement that underscored the impact of what was coming in.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqd20NaJldflA1gM_gTAeFJpb5wgrX7LukiueHBRcoSlGgMwCOIhhWIh1KgalPTMcwgBDPzVSDmW_-ObPDF8qNdJP23zYQAOz2l6fzlbiseqAgAlJk_Gc1gMSYXm3o6qOFaXZdqwPsSaIg/s1600/102713-SANDY.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqd20NaJldflA1gM_gTAeFJpb5wgrX7LukiueHBRcoSlGgMwCOIhhWIh1KgalPTMcwgBDPzVSDmW_-ObPDF8qNdJP23zYQAOz2l6fzlbiseqAgAlJk_Gc1gMSYXm3o6qOFaXZdqwPsSaIg/s400/102713-SANDY.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />Sandy was still about 24 hours away from its maximum fury being felt across the area. However, a year ago today the first bands of the storm were pushing in from the east in advance of the storm, despite the center of <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/al18/al182012.public.026.shtml?" target="_blank">Sandy still being east of the Carolina coastline</a>.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYVILAlRoPF3juQYxG4SLhACDrCwWg7UGAhvWKLoq1z_lN35TtIKNCZgcD5tM7FPgpGIaBj2E-8mePkMVYq_jgcqJdF1VuQRJLRpzwIpRf-aPbN10uRG0oyXrPQpvuVw-QyCqcw-kV0tBj/s1600/102713-SANDY3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYVILAlRoPF3juQYxG4SLhACDrCwWg7UGAhvWKLoq1z_lN35TtIKNCZgcD5tM7FPgpGIaBj2E-8mePkMVYq_jgcqJdF1VuQRJLRpzwIpRf-aPbN10uRG0oyXrPQpvuVw-QyCqcw-kV0tBj/s400/102713-SANDY3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />Here's another image of Sandy from Sunday morning as it spun northeast through the Atlantic. The size of the storm is remarkable already at this point -- covering real estate from Maine to just north of the Bahamas, from the Carolinas east to Bermuda.  The storm would only grow in size over the next 24 hours before it made landfall...but Sunday (one year ago) marked that final day of preparation for many along the East Coast as Sandy approached.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLwLaPDkKUVMIJCfEpkHREnlHOXDqD7BY6qfVSlv6-lxizW0JOTGxNK8MAXgP9Z8BcYrRWh4Ki53YDpIS1gMr6yohg984oK-IjHPDDA7JE-reklYcAvs6mYapdkVY0PvCOt-nPPE_1mbi5/s1600/102713-SANDY2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLwLaPDkKUVMIJCfEpkHREnlHOXDqD7BY6qfVSlv6-lxizW0JOTGxNK8MAXgP9Z8BcYrRWh4Ki53YDpIS1gMr6yohg984oK-IjHPDDA7JE-reklYcAvs6mYapdkVY0PvCOt-nPPE_1mbi5/s400/102713-SANDY2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />

NWS past weather Sandy One Year Ago This Afternoon

Sandy's approach to the Delaware Valley was largely "known" by October 25th and 26th, with most guidance suggesting impact across our region. What had not been completely settled was where the storm's center was going to come ashore -- modeling was s…

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