Toms River Continues To Rebuild A Year Later

I attended Wednesday's Tri County Chamber of Commerce Economic Development Luncheon in Pottstown to hear Paul Shives, Business Administrator for Toms River, NJ, speak on the recovery that Toms River faces from Sandy, even a year later.<br /><div><br /></div><div>Toms River is the ninth largest municipality in New Jersey, numbering over 90,000 residents at this point. Because of its size (41 square miles) and its position along a barrier island, Toms River features the most waterfront property of any New Jersey municipality. Given Sandy's eye moved ashore to their south, the Toms River area was particularly hard hit from the storm. </div><div><br /></div><div>Most of Toms River is west of the back bay; however, two parts of the community are along the barrier island -- Ortley Beach (which we're all aware of the damage) and Dover Beaches.  These are a part of the same barrier island that Mantoloking resides on -- the barrier island that was breached by Sandy's storm surge coming in at high tide during a full moon.</div><div><br /></div><div>Shives stated that while there's a lot that needs to be done in Toms River, much has been accomplished through partnership among state and local officials, as well as hard work by locals in numerous capacities. He was particularly kind towards Governor Christie, commending his administration on a couple of occasions for their willingness to partner with local level agencies and for pushing FEMA to get a field office opened in the community when one was not originally planned.</div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSrg3TMZp58zBqFzO2-pwnhbe-qxjQ4niAR_dsT9HJ9UndXxt2AGmPAgBz4bpu9wKQJu587bnTC0chesUp1oFB0hqRuNuKpnMMLqA38crqrajRDdELTQwGBEPU3yspHF9tcP9_YWxFqviq/s1600/103013-ORT.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSrg3TMZp58zBqFzO2-pwnhbe-qxjQ4niAR_dsT9HJ9UndXxt2AGmPAgBz4bpu9wKQJu587bnTC0chesUp1oFB0hqRuNuKpnMMLqA38crqrajRDdELTQwGBEPU3yspHF9tcP9_YWxFqviq/s400/103013-ORT.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Google Maps shot of Ortley Beach from earlier this year.</td></tr></tbody></table>If you weren't aware of the scope of damage in Toms River, here are some statistics to put things in perspective. 9200 structures were significantly damaged or destroyed in the community. 35,750 sixty foot length dumpsters were needed to remove debris from the community. In fact, Shives mentioned that the last debris removal from the barrier islands occurred yesterday on Halloween.<br /><br />Out of Toms River's $10 billion property tax base, 20 percent of that was lost due to the storm. That leaves a significant economic impact in the community for basic government services, <a href="http://www.newsworks.org/index.php/local/item/60546-as-sandy-anniversary-nears-group-prepares-report-on-the-storms-costs?linktype=related_articlepage" target="_blank">which forced Toms River to look for loans and financial assistance</a> to ensure government functioned in the community but also to help with rebuilding efforts.<br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGO3fUemAS5tyh3vMs_6B16Q4nCctMem4MdcXlUVIwKN4C36MVEWZ6YC4S-uQDek-5F_Pyz33vVcsD6gmvubh8GY143VUhLgdx_S0YWjDTtPDKkBMQZxgsFQn80q6SPZoo_FzYEzyyaJr1/s1600/103013-ORTb.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGO3fUemAS5tyh3vMs_6B16Q4nCctMem4MdcXlUVIwKN4C36MVEWZ6YC4S-uQDek-5F_Pyz33vVcsD6gmvubh8GY143VUhLgdx_S0YWjDTtPDKkBMQZxgsFQn80q6SPZoo_FzYEzyyaJr1/s400/103013-ORTb.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Google Maps shot of Mantoloking from earlier this year.</td></tr></tbody></table><div>The community has invested $28 million in public works projects -- things from roads to utilities to parks, also has worked on facilitating workshops to help residents navigate the FEMA minefield and new flood zone regulations that were issued late last year.<br /><br />Is there progress? Yes. Is it fast enough? <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/10/27/nj-sandy-victims-feel-snubbed/3283687/" target="_blank">Arguably not</a> for a number of individuals. Shives admitted to USA Today and also to the Chamber audience that township officials believe rebuilding was a three to five year proposition.<br /><br />That said, things are improving gradually at the Shore. </div>

rebuild Sandy Toms River Toms River Continues To Rebuild A Year Later

I attended Wednesday's Tri County Chamber of Commerce Economic Development Luncheon in Pottstown to hear Paul Shives, Business Administrator for Toms River, NJ, speak on the recovery that Toms River faces from Sandy, even a year later.Toms River is t…

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A Year After Sandy -- Are We Better Educated On Storm Impacts?

Sandy's brunt was felt one year ago yesterday -- restating the obvious in terms of impact, disaster, and everything else has been done by everyone else, everywhere else.<br /><div><br /></div><div>The storm wasn't your typical hurricane. Whether or not you want to argue the semantics of continuing warnings to landfall and the National Hurricane Center choosing not to consider Sandy a hurricane, what matters more is not whether a storm is tropical or not, it's about what the damn storm is going to do.</div><div><br /></div><div>We're still missing that point in many quarters of the weather industry.</div><div><br /></div><div>While I do think we are seeing improvement in communicating impacts -- what a storm will do, when, and where -- I do think we're still missing the point in large extent with hurricanes and storms. Reports from media focus on the position of a hurricane, for instance, while not communicating on the size of the storm or its potential impact. It's "easier" to throw coordinates for the center on a graphic, post that on TV or a website but not focusing on the radius of tropical storm force winds. Given Sandy's maximum winds were lower than Katrina's when it came ashore, or that its pressure was not far removed from Hugo, maximum winds or center points aren't the key arbiter of what matters with a storm. Size matters. Impacts matter.</div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/1-year-later-experts-say-hurricane-sandy-showed-limits-of-an-accurate-forecast-16648" target="_blank">So does how you communicate those impacts</a>.<br /><br /></div><div>“(It’s) not just physical science anymore,” Louis Uccellini said of the job of severe weather forecasting at the NWS in a very <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/1-year-later-experts-say-hurricane-sandy-showed-limits-of-an-accurate-forecast-16648">well-written piece of Andrew Freedman at Climate Central</a>. “It’s physical science plus social science, if in fact we want people to take the response that we expect when we make the forecast.”<br /><br />Getting over the title, the center point, those little details in the hurricane advisories are a starting point.  Some have gotten the hint -- <a href="http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2013/06/impacts-matter.html" target="_blank">we posted what</a> Brad Panovich from Charlotte posted on his Facebook page back in June when Tropical Storm Andrea moved up the East Coast.  Some forecasters, including us, have shunned usage of Saffir-Simpson and are stressing the need to focus on what a storm *can* do as opposed to what a storm's maximum winds or lowest pressure are.  Given how mediocre this hurricane season was, we weren't tested on this too heavily.  That said, avoiding categories and focusing more on what happens where is starting to happen...it's struggling to happen in enough places though.<br /><br />Communication is critical -- showing what, where, when, how bad, and how much (wind, rain) are things that matter to many. A title, a name doesn't change that. Irene was a hurricane, Sandy was a hybrid storm of both tropical and nontropical characteristics. Both had completely different impacts along the East Coast based on the location one resides at.<br /><br />No two storms are alike. If that point hasn't sunk in people's heads by now, I don't know if it ever will but it's a point that I think the weather community needs to make sure we beat over people's heads. No two hurricanes are alike, no two nor'easters are alike. Every storm brings its own little "variety" to the table.  Labels and titles don't magically make them the same.  At the end of the day, it's "what's it going to do, where's it going to happen, how much, and when" that matters.<br /><br />Media, meteorologists, and the weather industry collectively need to emphasize that point repeatedly. If you need to "bludgeon" the point home ad nauseum, do so. At the end of the day, it's the public (end consumer) that ingests what they see from us and from those who are running other news and information sources. It's our job to educate the consumer on what's going to happen.<br /><br />By and large, growing numbers of the weather community appear to be getting that hint to an extent. Not everyone is, yet...but until we see another "test" case with a large scale storm coming for any significant part of the US, it may be hard to see just how much improvement really has been made in communication of impact and less about mere points or titles.<br /><br /></div>

communication Sandy storm based impacts weather information A Year After Sandy -- Are We Better Educated On Storm Impacts?

Sandy's brunt was felt one year ago yesterday -- restating the obvious in terms of impact, disaster, and everything else has been done by everyone else, everywhere else.The storm wasn't your typical hurricane. Whether or not you want to argue the sem…

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Sandy's Accurate Forecasting In Two Snapshots

In the wake of today's "anniversary" of Sandy, it goes without saying that the storm was accurately forecast by several and by the European computer model. We briefly touched on the Euro's track record last week...and it doesn't go without repeating how good of a job it did in comparison to the GFS with handling the storm several days out.<br /><br />This was the forecast a week prior to Sandy. Euro 1, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dalrphHivOs" target="_blank">GFS</a>...(click the link to get an idea of where I'm going with it).<br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEia0vCPIx7rKXNlJHygewr_5uwzm6uz20L95qJzwPHeOlGq2nQQfAnjCccfst3vJ0u4i5pqvSIWaUik3kjkFCY3h3-U-uVVhRHg0JRvf_0580deokhkJpNao_yUFeUR-JQ5jamI08qP1dgi/s1600/102412-PM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEia0vCPIx7rKXNlJHygewr_5uwzm6uz20L95qJzwPHeOlGq2nQQfAnjCccfst3vJ0u4i5pqvSIWaUik3kjkFCY3h3-U-uVVhRHg0JRvf_0580deokhkJpNao_yUFeUR-JQ5jamI08qP1dgi/s400/102412-PM.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Modeling from Tuesday 10/23/2012 -- graphic from Storm Vista Weather Models.</td></tr></tbody></table><br />Granted, the GFS did improve as we closed in but the Euro's relative accuracy in some type of East Coast hit was the calling card.<br /><br />The other accurate forecast was that of the National Hurricane Center regarding the storm's track, its "cone" of impact, and where they projected the storm to head.  Beginning with the Thursday 10/25/12 11 AM outlook, their forecast track rarely wavered over the succeeding five days, staying largely within a swath of real estate between Bethany Beach and Long Beach Island.<br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP-3GE8h9Sm2kpFbFipci70RpWmJcBEsYfl00mB8W5gD5bcPrXLLOlDgHez4dW8VJqSbtTnxXxtbC20CjgbmG-XLx8ncU4SKMu4hlHZme3crbKwVvbHWSkwTrznrSgAQOq8pT8IU4QIlXX/s1600/103013-SANDY.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="566" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjP-3GE8h9Sm2kpFbFipci70RpWmJcBEsYfl00mB8W5gD5bcPrXLLOlDgHez4dW8VJqSbtTnxXxtbC20CjgbmG-XLx8ncU4SKMu4hlHZme3crbKwVvbHWSkwTrznrSgAQOq8pT8IU4QIlXX/s640/103013-SANDY.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/Geostrophic/status/395224244499410944" target="_blank">Corey Pieper</a></td></tr></tbody></table><br />Given we're talking about a forecast of a storm that had just cleared Cuba and had about 1000 miles of real estate yet to travel, that's pretty darn accurate forecasting from the National Hurricane Center.  The impacts that the <a href="http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2013/10/one-year-ago-this-afternoon.html" target="_blank">National Weather Service communicated out</a> were awesomely accurate as well -- and the words of caution were very wise.<br /><br />Tomorrow, we'll talk about the "lesson" of Sandy -- where we needed to improve communication in this business and whether or not the weather industry and weather community has figured it out yet. Not sure that's the case universally, yet, but I think there has been some progress on this.

past weather Sandy weather anniversary Sandy's Accurate Forecasting In Two Snapshots

In the wake of today's "anniversary" of Sandy, it goes without saying that the storm was accurately forecast by several and by the European computer model. We briefly touched on the Euro's track record last week...and it doesn't go without repeating …

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One Year Ago This Afternoon

Sandy's approach to the Delaware Valley was largely "known" by October 25th and 26th, with most guidance suggesting impact across our region. What had not been completely settled was where the storm's center was going to come ashore -- modeling was still varying in specific landfall points...but that was immaterial given the size of the storm. By Saturday and Sunday, most modeling was suggesting a South Jersey landfall point for the storm as it continued north and then northwest towards us.<br /><br />Sunday afternoon (which was the 28th), the local National Weather Service office released this powerful statement that underscored the impact of what was coming in.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqd20NaJldflA1gM_gTAeFJpb5wgrX7LukiueHBRcoSlGgMwCOIhhWIh1KgalPTMcwgBDPzVSDmW_-ObPDF8qNdJP23zYQAOz2l6fzlbiseqAgAlJk_Gc1gMSYXm3o6qOFaXZdqwPsSaIg/s1600/102713-SANDY.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqd20NaJldflA1gM_gTAeFJpb5wgrX7LukiueHBRcoSlGgMwCOIhhWIh1KgalPTMcwgBDPzVSDmW_-ObPDF8qNdJP23zYQAOz2l6fzlbiseqAgAlJk_Gc1gMSYXm3o6qOFaXZdqwPsSaIg/s400/102713-SANDY.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />Sandy was still about 24 hours away from its maximum fury being felt across the area. However, a year ago today the first bands of the storm were pushing in from the east in advance of the storm, despite the center of <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/al18/al182012.public.026.shtml?" target="_blank">Sandy still being east of the Carolina coastline</a>.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYVILAlRoPF3juQYxG4SLhACDrCwWg7UGAhvWKLoq1z_lN35TtIKNCZgcD5tM7FPgpGIaBj2E-8mePkMVYq_jgcqJdF1VuQRJLRpzwIpRf-aPbN10uRG0oyXrPQpvuVw-QyCqcw-kV0tBj/s1600/102713-SANDY3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYVILAlRoPF3juQYxG4SLhACDrCwWg7UGAhvWKLoq1z_lN35TtIKNCZgcD5tM7FPgpGIaBj2E-8mePkMVYq_jgcqJdF1VuQRJLRpzwIpRf-aPbN10uRG0oyXrPQpvuVw-QyCqcw-kV0tBj/s400/102713-SANDY3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />Here's another image of Sandy from Sunday morning as it spun northeast through the Atlantic. The size of the storm is remarkable already at this point -- covering real estate from Maine to just north of the Bahamas, from the Carolinas east to Bermuda.  The storm would only grow in size over the next 24 hours before it made landfall...but Sunday (one year ago) marked that final day of preparation for many along the East Coast as Sandy approached.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLwLaPDkKUVMIJCfEpkHREnlHOXDqD7BY6qfVSlv6-lxizW0JOTGxNK8MAXgP9Z8BcYrRWh4Ki53YDpIS1gMr6yohg984oK-IjHPDDA7JE-reklYcAvs6mYapdkVY0PvCOt-nPPE_1mbi5/s1600/102713-SANDY2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLwLaPDkKUVMIJCfEpkHREnlHOXDqD7BY6qfVSlv6-lxizW0JOTGxNK8MAXgP9Z8BcYrRWh4Ki53YDpIS1gMr6yohg984oK-IjHPDDA7JE-reklYcAvs6mYapdkVY0PvCOt-nPPE_1mbi5/s400/102713-SANDY2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />

NWS past weather Sandy One Year Ago This Afternoon

Sandy's approach to the Delaware Valley was largely "known" by October 25th and 26th, with most guidance suggesting impact across our region. What had not been completely settled was where the storm's center was going to come ashore -- modeling was s…

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Today's Teamster News 10.15.13

<a href="http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2013/10/11/2773151/osha-shutdown/" rel="nofollow">Workplaces Go Without Safety Inspections During The Shutdown</a>  ThinkProgress   ...When the government shut down on October 1, 90 percent of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration’s (OSHA) inspectors were furloughed...<br /><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/10378666/The-sun-is-setting-on-dollar-supremacy-and-with-it-American-power.html" rel="nofollow">The sun is setting on dollar supremacy, and with it, American power</a>  The Telegraph   ...A serious alternative to the dollar is still a long way off, but the latest shenanigans on Capitol Hill have given the search for them renewed momentum...<br /><a href="http://www.courierpostonline.com/viewart/20131013/NEWS02/310130056/Normalcy-eludes-many-year-after-Sandy-hit-NJ" rel="nofollow">Normalcy eludes many a year after Sandy hit NJ </a> Courier-Post   ...full recovery from Superstorm Sandy is still elusive nearly a year after the storm pummeled the state Oct. 29...<br /><a href="http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/10/wsj-more-homes-for-sales-fewer-sales.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29" rel="nofollow">WSJ: More Homes for Sales, Fewer Sales, Slowing Price Increases in Certain Areas</a>  Calculated Risk   ...The sharp home-price rally in some of the hardest-hit housing markets is likely to fade in the coming months amid a pullback in investor purchases and steady increases in the number of homes listed for sale...<br /><a href="http://wallstreetonparade.com/2013/10/banks-are-still-failing-at-ten-times-the-pre-2008-crash-rate/" rel="nofollow">Banks Are Still Failing At Ten Times the Pre-2008 Crash Rate </a> Wall Street on Parade   ...Before Wall Street took a bazooka loaded with credit default swaps and toxic mortgage securitizations and fired it directly at the heart of the U.S. economy, we had a very stable banking system...<br /><a href="http://www.enetenglish.gr/?i=news.en.home&id=1536" rel="nofollow">100,000 applications for 10,000 temporary jobs paying €427-490 a month</a>  ENet   ...At last count, in July, there were 1,374,054 people recorded as unemployed in Greece by the Hellenic Statistics Authority (Elstat). But of the 1,004,000 unemployed on OAED's books, only 145,865 – about 10% – were entitled to unemployment benefit...<br /><a href="http://portside.org/2013-10-13/are-our-parents-stealing-our-kids-no-theyre-not" rel="nofollow">Are Our Parents Stealing from Our Kids? No, They're Not </a> Portside   ...the data suggest that more spending on seniors is associated with more spending on kids...<br /><a href="http://www.salon.com/2013/10/14/garment_workers_held_boss_captive_until_he_paid_promised_bonus/" rel="nofollow">Garment workers held boss captive until he paid promised bonus</a>  Salon   ...Bangladeshi workers on minimum wage held factory boss for over 18 hours after months of tense labor disputes...<br /><a href="http://www.salon.com/2013/10/14/hospital_giant_fails_in_bid_to_swipe_nurses_sick_days/" rel="nofollow">Hospital giant fails in bid to swipe nurses’ sick days</a>  Salon   ...After nine strikes, nurses won the right to keep taking paid sick days rather than spreading disease to patients...<br /><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/feedarticle/11018894" rel="nofollow">Report: NSA collecting millions of contact lists</a>  The Guardian   ... the spy agency intercepts hundreds of thousands of email address books every day from private accounts on Yahoo, Gmail, Facebook and Hotmail. The NSA also collects about a half-million buddy lists daily from chat services and email accounts...<br /><br /><br /><br />

Bangladesh government shutdown Greece home prices paid sick days Sandy social security spying Wall Street Today's Teamster News 10.15.13

Workplaces Go Without Safety Inspections During The Shutdown  ThinkProgress   ...When the government shut down on October 1, 90 percent of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration’s (OSHA) inspectors were furloughed...The sun is setting on d…

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