FUTURE TRENDS
Adapted by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring from Ioannis Michaletos
In all BALKAN states excluding GREECE the overall Muslim population is set to increase because of declining birth rates among non Muslims, a phenomenon that also sweeps across EUROPE, where Muslims are slowly but surely outnumber non Muslims. Furthermore, immigration movements from the BALKANS towards WESTERN EUROPE have actually lowered the population in BULGARIA, over the past decade or so.
The BALKANS has always constituted one of the fiercest terrains of ethnic – Cultural enmity in EUROPE. The reasons for the above are the placement of the Peninsula close to ASIA that reserved the role of the “EUROPEAN gatekeeper” for the whole of SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE. One has to remember of the Kraijna border area created by the AUSTRIANS in the 17th century in order to counterweight the Ottoman forces.
Future seems to have elements of repeating this situation due to the ongoing rivalry between WEST and EAST, a phenomenon that one can easily retrieve by reading Homer’s Iliad or by comprehending the PERSIANS wars back in the 5th century BC, as they were recorded by Herodotus historiography. The BALKANS are the gateway between the WEST and the EAST, where OXIDANT meets ORIENT.
THE BALKAN PENINSULA REMAINS MORE THAN EVER “THE SOFT UNDERBELLY OF EUROPE”
THE BALKAN PENINSULA REMAINS MORE THAN EVER “THE SOFT UNDERBELLY OF EUROPE”
The overall challenges for security and intelligence services, oriented in the BALKAN region seems overwhelming, judging by the multitude of challenges involved and the tasks needed to overcome them. The current époque has brought the re-engineering of security policies, in order to combat non- symmetrical threats such as the ones of organized crime and terrorism. Taking into account the globalization process, the interrelation between societies and the breathtaking advancements in telecommunications and transport; it is fair to assume that certain issues should be seriously reflected upon, on a different perspective than the traditional mode.
A multiparty approach to organized crime should be form here upon the core of any intelligence activity in the BALKANS. Organized crime –Along with the rest of the perils for modern societies- need measures that are up to the modern way of life and communication of ours. A parallel and well constructed method of Open Source Intelligence gathering and the operation of specialized crime intelligence units would certainly help towards the aim of curbing crime and its calamities.
In addition a conclusive analysis and synthesis of the available information, without any bias; should be the core of any serious attempt into reaching viable prognosis and stall malicious situations such as terrorists incidents and further empowerment of organized crime.
In order for the aforementioned to become a custom reality, there has to be a constructive and significant replenish of the human resources involved and an upgrade of the present era technical equipment. Therefore decisions should be taken soon enough so as to foresee any positive results, before events surpass the ability of the intelligence community to react and function properly.
The BALKAN Peninsula remains more than ever “The soft underbelly of EUROPE”, apart from the other more conventional menaces in the wider EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN area.
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THE BALKANS – ORGANIZED CRIME AND POLITICAL CORRUPTION Final Part Updated at :
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Sunday, February 3, 2013
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