Tomorrow's Front Not A Huge Rain Or Wind Producer

The incoming cool front for tomorrow will bring a couple of rounds of showers along with it but it lacks the same intensity or dynamics that last Friday's frontal boundary had with it.  Showers move in during the morning hours and linger through the midday and afternoon before exiting stage right in the afternoon. These will not be accompanied by a fall squall although there will be some 15-25 mile per hour breezes along and ahead of the front.<br /><br />Last Friday's front had 70 to 80 mph winds along the front at 5000 feet up. Tomorrow's front brings 40 to 50 mph winds at that same level. The result will be a calmer (although breezy at times) scenario for late tonight into tomorrow.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNubzmg8hldrVKbIUT8nJ6yk2k2BXzzM3wgWccf6Vwl5yHumVzY4bdnxvXg8f6m29E1V0d_HGYTZgU64-hHux_AACX26c4I8N2MHYNxT3pdJDHN9tLGl9b_dCmml108QCDWCJ3obAKAsYO/s1600/110613-PRE.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNubzmg8hldrVKbIUT8nJ6yk2k2BXzzM3wgWccf6Vwl5yHumVzY4bdnxvXg8f6m29E1V0d_HGYTZgU64-hHux_AACX26c4I8N2MHYNxT3pdJDHN9tLGl9b_dCmml108QCDWCJ3obAKAsYO/s400/110613-PRE.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />The amount of rain will be rather modest -- many spots will pick up just a tenth of an inch or two as the front moves through. As the front hits the coast, there's a chance that rainfall may pick up a bit in intensity as the mid level trough begins to catch the front and precipitation enhances a bit...the Shore could see upwards of a half inch of rain tomorrow afternoon and evening from the front.  Most of the rest of us are probably going to be in the tenth or two department.  Modeling generally ranges from GFS' tenth (if that) for I-95 to the Euro giving many locations a quarter inch or more.  The NAM sort of takes the middle ground with tomorrow.  All models do paint a bit more rain across the Poconos and Central Pennsylvania than they do for Philly.<br /><br />In general, a bit of a yawner system tomorrow but one that reinforces cool air from Canada for the weekend.

computer model discussion frontal boundary Tomorrow's Front Not A Huge Rain Or Wind Producer

The incoming cool front for tomorrow will bring a couple of rounds of showers along with it but it lacks the same intensity or dynamics that...

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Next Shot Of Rain Looms For Thursday

It looks as if we will go into a rinse and repeat mode in the Delaware Valley regarding weather over the coming days. Cooler air looms today and tomorrow in response to the cold trough shot moving overhead. In fact, tomorrow could provide us the coldest day so far this autumn as many of us struggle to reach 50. However, the shot of chill is not sustained as high pressure works offshore and winds veer southwesterly ahead of the next system in the pike.<br /><br />This system is timing its arrival for Thursday with a round of rain as it moves on through. It could bring showers and drizzle as early as Wednesday evening as moisture increases ahead of the frontal boundary but the bulk of moisture and precipitation with the front move through Thursday.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPLh5W9jsVyBlsjupe009SZ1E1FtlKKdBdCzLkuB-EWM3QpisueSFhHA0vYyCzYtdlJbdZIT9HZOrT0s-nLQG6PTFCtn12ZqqlW1IW0uLaxAF6bqbiKZs_rHVltQGApKEDTlDNNCR23rR-/s1600/110313-GFS.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPLh5W9jsVyBlsjupe009SZ1E1FtlKKdBdCzLkuB-EWM3QpisueSFhHA0vYyCzYtdlJbdZIT9HZOrT0s-nLQG6PTFCtn12ZqqlW1IW0uLaxAF6bqbiKZs_rHVltQGApKEDTlDNNCR23rR-/s400/110313-GFS.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />At the surface, a band of rain and perhaps an embedded line of heavier rain could accompany the front. Unlike last Friday's squall line, wind energy with this system is not quite as robust. The strongest winds at 5000 feet up only get into the 50-60 mile per hour range, which is a bit lower than the 70 plus mile per hour winds we had with Friday's front.  While we can't rule out a "fall squall" setup on Thursday, it may not be as robust. We'll keep an eye on the trends with the low level jet ahead of the front to see how this materializes.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixZpTKWcUc0oesbEnKBuYGrAZvBu6a31m8sRLkrUlLjXkeAdM2dtHGqBMtOrrLzt8wv1wDLRP071j1rrODO0MAPu28IUTmQFosn_fgpUN11h3ha_zKVNxACzj-DlgvOfKttPSW7tQWeAuU/s1600/110313-GFS2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixZpTKWcUc0oesbEnKBuYGrAZvBu6a31m8sRLkrUlLjXkeAdM2dtHGqBMtOrrLzt8wv1wDLRP071j1rrODO0MAPu28IUTmQFosn_fgpUN11h3ha_zKVNxACzj-DlgvOfKttPSW7tQWeAuU/s400/110313-GFS2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />At minimum, we will have some dry weather over the next few days before we get a chance of rain in here.<br /><br />

computer model discussion GFS storms and rumors of storms Next Shot Of Rain Looms For Thursday

It looks as if we will go into a rinse and repeat mode in the Delaware Valley regarding weather over the coming days. Cooler air looms today...

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Storm System For Thursday Night Into Friday

A tranquil and relatively mild week is ahead of us for the Delaware Valley but a stronger storm system lurks in the forecast for Thursday Night into Friday. The GFS has maintained strong consistency so far in suggesting a frontal passage in the overnight Thursday into Friday timeframe, with the Euro a bit delayed in timing (Friday evening). Given the track, it will be a warm, breezy setup for us as temperatures likely push 70 on Thursday.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2K_bUXOCYUVaCNpSlvKVOBszHrltptNVv6sg4tK2V6aIqkIlv7l9e83OAcrc_5eZ2mhb6H1o0d6-m-n1Ei61T8r1C42QBNWTLX_1NbTiTwiK19qS1P13f2XLRraA4wjx1AkkVQOPsdHEK/s1600/102713-FRONT.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2K_bUXOCYUVaCNpSlvKVOBszHrltptNVv6sg4tK2V6aIqkIlv7l9e83OAcrc_5eZ2mhb6H1o0d6-m-n1Ei61T8r1C42QBNWTLX_1NbTiTwiK19qS1P13f2XLRraA4wjx1AkkVQOPsdHEK/s400/102713-FRONT.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />The specific details of what accompanies the front will still be ironed out but at minimum we will have a breezy Thursday night into Friday, with the prospect of a gusty squall line of wind and rain pushing through with the front itself.  Modeling shows some pretty strong winds (see below) at 5000 feet up. The GFS model suggests that winds could reach 60 or 70 miles per hour aloft, with some of that possibly translating to the surface as the front pushes through.  With an evening or overnight timeframe, we may have a bit more of a struggle in getting a portion of high winds down to the surface as the atmosphere's lowest levels may be a bit more stable.  That said, gusty winds of some sort probably accompany this front, along with a band or two of rain.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_HGQPaoqL9gZMG2sl_9ERHy6GyTN530pYBgEUVUejfS-tT1DvJRcBma2t6pE1osQH6hKEHBmNNX_QqoYgPVNOo-deKpVdh97hHahPONoh6w_P8fCWpaJr60OwEMzL1z1oj1t4XO4rBy2F/s1600/102713-FRONT2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_HGQPaoqL9gZMG2sl_9ERHy6GyTN530pYBgEUVUejfS-tT1DvJRcBma2t6pE1osQH6hKEHBmNNX_QqoYgPVNOo-deKpVdh97hHahPONoh6w_P8fCWpaJr60OwEMzL1z1oj1t4XO4rBy2F/s400/102713-FRONT2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />Post-front, a cooler weekend is in store on a gusty west-northwest flow. Temperatures probably end up dropping back into the 50's for highs.

computer model discussion fall squall frontal boundary Storm System For Thursday Night Into Friday

A tranquil and relatively mild week is ahead of us for the Delaware Valley but a stronger storm system lurks in the forecast for Thursday Ni...

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