ISRAEL’S SECURITY CONCERNS IN THE BALKANS
Adapted by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring from the original article written by Chris Deliso
Executive Summary:
- TURKEY and ISRAEL: Alliances new and old
- ISRAEL entering turkeys “turf”, the BALKANS, unnerves TURKISH political community and makes BOSNIAN leaders feel uneasy as well
- TURKISH, ISRAELI reconciliation purely because of defense industry related deals
- The tenor of the revived ISRAELI - TURKISH relationship and effects on the BALKAN alliances
- TURKEY by far the strongest country in the neighborhood, economically, militarily and politically
- Erdoğans trump card to make peace with the KURDS: Ocalan
- Competitive BALKAN
- ISRAEL’S private business activities have pivoted to the BALKANS, as a consequence of the 3 years rift with TURKEY
TURKEY AND ISRAEL: ALLIANCES NEW AND OLD
One obvious aspect of the ISRAELI-TURKISH rapprochement (and the US involvement in brokering it) is the US desire to get both countries united on SYRIA. The groundwork for the now famous phone call, diplomatic sources indicate, was laid out a few weeks earlier during Secretary of State Kerry’s visit to Ankara in February. However, Erdoğan is seeking to maximize what is perceived as a new advantage, and has recently made guarded comments about the speed and extent to which ties will be normalized, while also stating his planed Gaza visit. If past experience is anything to go by, the TURKISH leader will use his platform there to give a sort of victory declaration concerning the Gaza flotilla, and further enhance his standing in the ‘Muslim street.’
Background Information:
THE TRUE REASON BEHIND TURKEYS WARMONGERING AGAINST ISRAEL
ISRAEL ENTERING TURKEYS “TURF”, THE BALKANS, UNNERVES TURKISH POLITICAL COMMUNITY AND MAKES BOSNIAN LEADERS FEEL UNEASY AS WELL
Still, even before the Gaza Flotilla incident, ISRAEL had already begun a strategic process of developing its diplomatic, economic and cultural relationships in the BALKANS. Both before and after May 2010 this approach has unnerved some in the TURKISH policy community, and left BOSNIAN and other local Muslim leaders uneasy as well.
Background Information:
FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN BOSNIA: TURKEY SECOND LARGEST INVESTOR
Thus, the key question that will have to be asked going forward is (as discussed previously in the case of ALBANIA) how the TURKISH-ISRAELI rapprochement will affect the relations of both powers with specific BALKAN states and interests, especially when it comes to bilateral military cooperation plans. ISRAEL is aware of this concern, as was indicated by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s recent reassurances to GREECE that TURKISH rapprochement would not affect ISRAELI-GREEK cooperation.
Background Information:
ISRAEL TO STATION MILITARY JETS IN CYPRUS and
DIPLOMATIC DOORS NOT ENTIRELY CLOSED BETWEEN ISRAEL AND TURKEY
TURKISH, ISRAELI RECONCILIATION PURELY BECAUSE OF DEFENSE INDUSTRY RELATED DEALS
Until recently, almost all of the feedback and discussion among ISRAELI experts and media over this issue had not been raised, as their views were predicated on the assumption that ties with TURKEY would not resume, and could not resume, as long as Erdoğan remained in power. The fact that the impossible seems to have happened says more about US influence and desire for clarity on SYRIA than about any innate ISRAELI-TURKISH trust. It is also possible that blocked deliveries of ISRAELI-produced military components and intelligence technology for TURKEY were starting to become problematic for the latter, increasing internal pressure on TURKISH leaders to act.
Whether or not it was really TURKEY or ISRAEL who ‘needed it more,’ cooperation has been restored and the next step for both sides is how to ‘sell’ the rapprochement before domestic supporters and rivals. This is much more challenging for Erdoğan than for Netanyahu, as the former’s aspirations are far greater and more diverse: to change the TURKISH constitution in his favor, to make peace with the Kurds, to redirect an ambitious foreign policy centering on several fronts, and to remain the most influential politician in the Muslim world. This is why the TURKISH prime minister’s public handling of the rapprochement is bound to be ‘predictably unpredictable’- something that will irritate ISRAEL and the US, but that will not be a surprise to longtime observers.
THE TENOR OF THE REVIVED ISRAELI - TURKISH RELATIONSHIP AND EFFECTS ON THE BALKAN ALLIANCES
Despite any further controversial comments to come from politicians, it does appear that bilateral relations will eventually improve, even if these once and future partners will stay more wary of each other in future, thus being a more cautious relationship.
Despite the fact that diplomatic and economic relations between ISRAEL and TURKEY could be reestablished quite quickly, the sensitive military and strategic cooperation is much more difficult to achieve, in view of the deep changes in the ranks of the TURKISH military and intelligence echelons and of mutual mistrust, something which will not disappear overnight.
Analysts believe that the resumption of ties will also benefit ISRAEL, as the new BALKAN alliances are limited. It is not clear whether an alliance with CYPRUS and the BALKAN states can fully substitute for ISRAEL’S former strategic military partnership with TURKEY, given GREECE’ significant financial problems and ISRAEL’S own budgetary restraints, it also remains doubtful whether either of the two countries can ‘afford’ prolonged military tensions presented by an [potentially] adversarial-inclined TURKEY.
TURKEY BY FAR THE STRONGEST COUNTRY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD, ECONOMICALLY, MILITARILY AND POLITICALLY
A similar analysis had been made just over a year earlier by Dr. Josef Olmert, who raised the question of whether a BALKAN alliance could replace the previous one with TURKEY: “It is premature to pass a definitive judgment, but the odds are that the answer is negative,” Olmert wrote in the Huffington Post. “TURKEY is by far the strongest country in this neighborhood, economically, militarily and politically. The closure of the TURKISH market for the ISRAELI military industries is significant, and it is inconceivable, that a bankrupt nation like GREECE, impoverished states like ALBANIA or small nations like CYPRUS can make up the difference.” Interestingly, Olmert’s view that Erdoğan would not ‘change course’ and restore relations with ISRAEL was shared by many ISRAELI experts right up until Netanyahu’s apology was made.
Background Information:
WESTERN ARROGANCE AND IGNORANCE LED TO UNDERESTIMATE TURKEY
The resurrected TURKISH-ISRAELI relationship will in most likelihood primarily focus on events in their immediate neighborhood. This would mean that the current reduced cooperation with the Balkans will reassume in the medium-term. Even if TURKEY and ISRAEL are able to overcome their differences and jointly focus on SYRIA policy, it is doubtful whether the two countries will be able to muster enough trust to take on issues related to combating terrorism in the Balkans. At the present stage, both TURKEY and ISRAEL are arguably focusing their attention towards the LEVANT as opposed to the BALKANS.
Nevertheless ISRAEL may continue to assist various BALKAN countries with the following areas of cooperation: anti-terror training, homeland security technologies, airport and seaport security, and assistance on transnational counter-narcotics operations.
ERDOĞANS TRUMP CARD TO MAKE PEACE WITH THE KURDS: OCALAN
It has been a long time since the glory days of ISRAELI-TURKISH relations in the late 1990s, when cooperation was so high that ISRAEL allegedly provided intelligence leading to the capture of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan (the degree and character of ISRAELI involvement, denied wholesale by the government at the time, have been intensely debated, with wildly differing tales told). The great irony here is that Ocalan, held in a TURKISH island prison ever since, is now a sort of trump card vital for Erdoğan in his outreach campaign to win a peace with the KURDS.
COMPETITIVE BALKAN
A certain trend in TURKISH media visible since the Mavi Marmaris incident has revealed a concern, or attempts to create concern that ISRAEL and TURKEY could in some way become competitors in the BALKANS. However, according to Yossi Melman, “ISRAEL does not see TURKEY as a competitor, certainly not in the BALKANS. ISRAEL wishes to restore its old intelligence and military ties with TURKEY… the civil war in SYRIA provides a common ground for ISRAELI and TURKISH interests to stabilize SYRIA.
Indeed, while TURKISH (and generally pro-Muslim) supporters in the media have shown some concern about ISRAELI expansion in the BALKANS, these fears are overblown. “Israel with its limited size, capabilities and financial means is not a player in this game,” contends Melman.
“ISRAEL via its intelligence and security is concerned almost solely about its immediate national interests: IRAN’S support of terrorist groups, the developments in SYRIA, terrorist groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas, and to a lesser degree al Qaida (only in a direct regard to ISRAEL, like the growing fear of Islamists in SYRIA),” he continues. Still, “ISRAEL is taking part in exchanging information with friendly services, thus occasionally if ISRAEL will come across information which is valid to other nations it will provide it to the interested parties.”
ISRAEL’S PRIVATE BUSINESS ACTIVITIES HAVE PIVOTED TO THE BALKANS, AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE 3 YEARS RIFT WITH TURKEY
From the purely entrepreneurial side of things, it is also interesting to note that while the three-year rift with TURKEY had an effect; it did represent a helpful challenge in some ways. During the long suspension of activities, businessmen from both countries had to find alternate connecting points, which actually increased the value of countries like MACEDONIA, ALBANIA and ROMANIA. So regardless of the diplomatic impasse, says an informed local businessman, “TURKISH businessmen have considered the BALKANS to be a good place to meet ISRAELI counterparts… despite politics, business always finds a way.” There are currently plans for several joint private ventures in the region, for example in the health care and high-tech sectors.
Read more related articles:
ISRAELI EXPORTS TO TURKEY RISE 42% TO EQUAL EXPORTS TO GERMANY
SINCE TURKEY, OFFICIALLY AT LEAST, CUT TIES WITH ISRAEL, ISRAEL’S ONLY OPTION FOR FUTURE OIL AND GAS EXPORTS, GEO POLITICALLY SPEAKING, IS VIA “NEUTRAL” CYPRUS and
ISRAEL HAS BECOME A KEY STRATEGIC ALLY TO GREECE AND CYPRUS
TURKEY...... EMERGING POWER
TURKEY REVIVES STRATEGIC COOPERATION WITH ISRAEL
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ISRAEL, IRAN and the BALKANS Part 8 Updated at :
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