ISRAEL’S SECURITY CONCERNS IN THE BALKANS
Adapted by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring from the original article written by Chris Deliso
TURKEY AND ISRAEL, BEYOND THE BALKANS: THE CAUCASUS AND AFRICA
Reaching out to mutual allies – the most obvious and most extensively involved of course being the US – has also helped both ISRAEL and TURKEY sustain relations during the three-year impasse. US diplomatic sources reveal that despite the apparent lack of progress since May 2010, it was not due to lack of trying; in addition to the official visits, former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton made several secret trips to Ankara to try and get some traction from a stubborn TURKISH leadership.
There are other mutual, but sometimes overlooked allies too, which play a key role in ISRAEL’S containment of IRAN but which are never mentioned in the context of wider bilateral Israel-TURKEY relations in other areas like the BALKANS. In this light, AZERBAIJAN is a vital ally to both ISRAEL and TURKEY, borders on IRAN, and thus becomes potentially important in a number of ways. Is it possible that the country has facilitated or could facilitate information-sharing between TURKEY and ISRAEL more discreetly during periods of public political discord?
Background Information:
ISRAELI AND AZERBAIJANIAN RELATIONS, A GENIUS CHESS MOVE. Read entire article at: http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/10/israel-azerbaijan-and-kazakhstan_6.html
ISRAEL AND AZERBAIJAN BILATERAL COOPERATION
Veteran CANADIAN war reporter Scott Taylor, who has traveled in and written extensively on TURKEY and AZERBAIJAN, notes that “intelligence agencies work on entirely different circuits than that of the diplomatic corps- policy differences would not preclude the necessity to share information on common threats, if necessary.”
Interestingly, as with ALBANIA under Berisha, Baku has shown a bit of independence from its ethnic kin in TURKEY. This owes less to nationalism (as is the case with ALBANIA) and more to a new confidence and prominence as its wealth and geostrategic value have increased. A senior AZERBAIJANI diplomat addressed the question for Balkanalysis.com thus: “I cannot comment on the matter of intelligence cooperation in particular, but in general terms our relations with ISRAEL is strong and multifaceted, and we don’t look for the approval of this relationship from a third state, for example, TURKEY.”
“The only common approach between AZERBAIJAN and TURKEY towards Israel (or more precisely ISRAELI-Palestinian conflict) is that we are both for the two-state solution and we are supporting the independence of Palestine,” the diplomat continued. “AZERBAIJAN’S stance on this matter sits ok with ISRAEL, and does not hinder AZERBAIJAN-ISRAEL bilateral cooperation. There are a number of other issues (the Holocaust, anti-Semitism) where our position is also clear, and appreciated by ISRAEL.”
AZERBAIJAN: GROUND ZERO FOR INTELLIGENCE WORK
Something that was particularly appreciated by ISRAEL (as stated by President Shimon Peres) last January was AZERBAIJAN’S disruption of a terrorist plot involving IRANIAN and AZERBAIJANI citizens. Authorities in Baku stated that terrorists had planned to attack Jewish schools and to bomb the ISRAELI embassy, “to avenge the death” of Hezbollah’s Imad Muganiyah (a possible similar motive behind the Burgas bombing mentioned above). Just a few weeks after, the London Times published a feature in which an unnamed ISRAELI operative spoke of Baku as being “ground zero for intelligence work,” and discussing the presence of IRANIAN, AMERICAN and ISRAELI intelligence in this Caucasus country bordering IRAN.
These comments and the general context become even more interesting in light of recent publications on the ISRAELI-AZERBAIJANI strategic alliance. A comprehensive article by Mahir Khalifa-Zadeh for the IDC Herzliya’s GLORIA Center discusses the intricacies of ISRAELI-AZERBAIJANI relations and active regional players IRAN, RUSSIA and ARMENIA. The author also discusses Baku’s proactive role during the breakdown in ISRAELI-TURKISH relations.
“AZERBAIJAN has attempted to play the mediator between the two countries following tensions and disagreements that emerged as a result of the Mavi Marmara incident,” he writes. “Undoubtedly, this type of mediation can expand Baku’s role in MIDDLE EASTERN affairs and strengthen Azerbaijan’s international standing.”
AFRICA: THE EMERGING CONTINENT
Another region in which the future relationship between ISRAEL and TURKEY is going to be significant is AFRICA. The extent of IRANIAN and Hezbollah involvement across approximately 40 states here was assessed in the above-cited analysis by the IDC Herzliya’s Dr. Ely Karmon. In this case, TURKEY has cleverly taken steps to expand its diplomatic and commercial presence- thus making it a vital ally for the US and ISRAEL in the region, both in terms of mediating local intra-religious disputes and providing intelligence on IRANIAN moves. Although the foreign media has only become aware of TURKEY’S tilt towards AFRICA in the last few months, Balkanalysis.com devoted attention to it over two years ago in this interview.
Background Information: AFRICAN GEOPOLITICS
TURKEY’S TILT TOWARDS AFRICA
The present article cannot go into detail concerning the complexities of the evolving ISRAELI-TURKISH relationship and how both NORTH and SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA will affect it. However, it can reasonably be assumed that TURKEY’S developed presence on the emerging continent will place it in a strong position for its dealings with both ISRAEL and the US. The leverage that TURKEY has due to its established economic presence, and particularly in terms of its shared Islamic faith in African countries with Muslim populations, may well be exerted in ways favorable to Ankara, not only here but in other regions as well. However, indicators of such diplomacy in action will probably not be immediately visible or relatable except in a small number of individual cases.
Nevertheless, if ISRAEL does eventually decide to limit its BALKAN activities, it may not be because of simple budgetary reasons: rather, if it perceives TURKEY as being essential to eliminating any IRANIAN threats emanating from AFRICA, Israel would probably choose to become less prominent in TURKEY’S EUROPEAN backyard, if the latter demands it.
Considering the politicians involved, this is not as unlikely as occasional observers might think. Knowing what factors motivate TURKISH decision-making politically, emotionally, and strategically is necessary for deducing the likelihood of future ‘compromises’ to come in the BALKANS.
In the end, it will be up to the ISRAELI leadership to game-plan for all of the possible outcomes and to convince their BALKAN partners (as they recently attempted with the GREEK government) that they really are ‘here to stay.’ With AMERICAN interest waning and the EUROPEAN UNION mired in its own financial and other problems, it is a good moment for any outside aspirants to gain influence in the BALKANS. The issue, for all concerned, is to what extent their potential involvement will be guaranteed, compared to other possible compromises with interested parties in other areas or other spheres of interest.
The End
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