GERMANY VIEWS SECURING ENERGY RESOURCES AS UTMOST STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE
Via german-foreign-policy.com
GERMANY and the EUROPEAN UNION depend increasingly on energy imports. Berlin views the geopolitical consequences of this dependence on energy resources in other nations as of the utmost strategic importance for its ambitions to gain more international influence. For that reason, GERMANY has been urging for some time that the EU engage in joint activities to assert political power. GERMAN government advisors leave no doubt that Berlin and Brussels will also have to adjust to using armed conflicts in the drive for diminishing energy sources in this intensifying economic and political competition for power.
INCREASING NEED FOR ENERGY
Berlin's strategies of independent EUROPEAN world power politics presume that securing the energy supply will decide the fate of its far reaching plans for world power. Second to the USA, the EU is currently the biggest importer and user of energy in the world and thus depends to a great degree on access to (preferably low cost) foreign energy sources. According to estimates by the EU commission, the oil and gas reserves of the EU and NORWAY will last only another 25 years. Two thirds of the demand for oil and gas must currently be covered by imports. The current dependency on imports of 75% of oil from the OPEC states could increase to 85% by the year 2020. At the moment the EU still covers 50% of the demand for natural gas from its own sources. Since the BRITISH sources in the NORTH ATLANTIC will soon be depleted, the demand for imports of gas will increase further.
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GERMAN CONTROLLED ECB WILL ESSENTIALLY TAKE CONTROL OF THE MEDITERRANEAN ISLAND, AND SUBSEQUENTLY ITS NATURAL GAS RESOURCES! Read entire article at: http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2013/03/cypruss-financial-crisis-and-its.html
In this regard, Berlin is doubly affected: GERMANY has, on average, been 60% (1999) more energy dependent compared to other EU member countries; it imports about 98 % of its oil and 75% of its needed gas. GERMAN dependency on oil imports will increase considerably: The economic ministry's prognosis suggests a drastic increase of three to six times’ higher natural gas consumption. Natural gas which has already become the most used energy in GERMAN industry will be the basis of more than half of GERMANY'S energy by 2020. At the same time, GERMAN energy companies already control a large part of the EUROPEAN energy supply and now strive for a particularly dominant position in EUROPEAN natural gas supplies. Several countries already depend considerably on GERMAN companies for the shipping and sale of natural gas. Berlin's expert advisors on energy policies, principally, see the following options for the future increase of oil and gas imports: RUSSIA, the MIDDLE EAST. CENTRAL ASIA, and to a lesser extent AFRICA.
AFRICA AS A BACKYARD- GERMAN RAILROAD CONSTRUCTIONS
Berlin increasingly strives for access to the energy sources of AFRICA which is viewed as Europe's backyard because of its connection with the colonial past. Advisers to Berlin's government explain that EUROPE must consolidate its relations with AFRICAN oil and natural gas providers in order to secure its energy supply. GERMAN corporations are expanding their involvement in NORTH AFRICA, i.e. in LIBYA, RWE invested in oil and natural gas production. The foreign office is interested in CHAD. There, significant oil reserves are to be channeled via pipeline through CAMEROON to the GULF OF GUINEA where considerable oil and natural gas resources are located as well. The government of the booming oil state EQUATORIAL GUINEA already promotes GERMAN involvement in its country. In the current crisis region of SUDAN, a GERMAN company is to build a railroad which, among others, will serve to transport oil from the South of SUDAN.
Comment by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring:
Interesting to note is that the focus on almost all geopolitical and strategic activities, be it the MIDDLE EAST, the BALKANS, ASIA and last but not least AFRICA, are focused on what the USA, CHINA, SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN and the UK etc. are pursuing in these regions. Rarely is one being made aware of GERMAN geopolitical and strategic activities in previously mentioned parts of the world. In view of these facts, GERMANY manages quietly and virtually undetected to pursue its Geo-strategic objectives in order to increase its economic as well as strategic presence around the globe.
Some samples regarding such analysis are provided below in related links, none of which mentions Germany’s Geo strategic role in the area:
SUB SAHARA AFRICA, EMERGING MARKETS OF TOMORROW at: http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/argentina-and-africa.html
AFRICA IS FORECAST TO EMERGE AS THE FASTEST-GROWING REGION IN THE WORLD OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS at: http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/africa-and-usa.html
AFRICAN RESOURCE BOOM at: http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/04/africa-forgotten-and-underestimated.html
WEST AFRICAN OIL REMAINS STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT FOR U.S. POLICY MAKERS, ESPECIALLY SINCE IT PROVIDES AN ALTERNATIVE TO PERSIAN GULF OIL at: http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/12/usa-china-and-africa.html
AFRICA IS FORECAST TO EMERGE AS THE FASTEST-GROWING REGION IN THE WORLD OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS at: http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/africa-and-usa.html
AFRICAN RESOURCE BOOM at: http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/04/africa-forgotten-and-underestimated.html
WEST AFRICAN OIL REMAINS STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT FOR U.S. POLICY MAKERS, ESPECIALLY SINCE IT PROVIDES AN ALTERNATIVE TO PERSIAN GULF OIL at: http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/12/usa-china-and-africa.html
STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP” WITH RUSSIA… AND GAZPROM
At the moment, however, GERMANY and the EU are primarily occupied with large importing oil and gas from RUSSIA. This is expressed in the EUROPEAN-RUSSIAN energy partnership which had been proclaimed in October of 2000. This connection is primarily a GERMAN-RUSSIAN one: Strategic projects for energy supplies were the focal point of the summit in Jekaterinburg in October of 2003. With this specifically GERMAN-RUSSIAN strategic partnership, Berlin intends to reduce the influence of other WESTERN STATES and corporations on the supply of the EU states, especially concerning increasingly important natural gas.
Related topic:
RUSSIAN ENCROACHMENTS IN THE CAUCASUS AND EUROPE. Read entire article at: http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkey-and-russia.html
TRANS-ANATOLIAN PROJECT WILL MAKE AZERBAIJAN INDEPENDENT FROM RUSSIA Read entire article at:http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-energy-dependency-on-countries.html
In July of 2004 this cooperation was expanded: An agreement with Gazprom (the world’s largest producer of natural gas) facilitates the participation of GERMAN companies in the complete processing chain of RUSSIAN gas production for the first time - from exploration and transport through the new pipeline to marketing in WESTERN EUROPE. An additional project is a new gas pipeline from RUSSIA through the Baltic Sea to GERMANY. Such move is to pressure, and possibly excludes, the UKRAINE and POLAND, whose territory had been originally planned for the transit, but which could possibly become unstable and subject to USA pressure.
GERMAN close cooperation with RUSSIA is solidified further with the discussion group ”GERMAN-RUSSIAN ENERGY COOPERATION," established by representatives of the economies of both states in March of 2003, and with GERMAN-RUSSIAN energy summits of which the next one will take place in Moscow in September.
GREAT INTEREST IN THE GULF REGION
The particular reason for the energy alliance with RUSSIA, which will supply approximately one third of GERMAN oil and gas imports, are the imponderables of developments in the MIDDLE EAST and PERSIAN GOLF regions. According to the unofficial GERMAN ASSOCIATION FOR FOREIGN POLICY (DGAP), strategic trends of a potentially increasing dependency of the EU on significant oil and gas imports caused competition with the US and its energy policies. GERMANY is annoyed because the EU has turned into a “(junior-) partnership” with the US due to Washington's militarily reinforced position of power.
COOPERATION IN SHAPING A”NEW ORDER"
Berlin's political advisers of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP or foundation for science and policy), criticize the EU for disavowing any assertion of geopolitical interests,although for EUROPE the stakes in energy policy interests are more important than those of the USA: While the EU depends, for a large part of its energy supply, on resources from the MIDDLE EAST, it has fewer alternatives. Thus, the EU should have a “tremendous interest in access to the natural gas resources of the GULF REGION especially since RUSSIA'S production of natural gas has been decreasing since 1990. Therefore the SWP recommends cooperation with the USA in the new order of the GULF REGION: It would be sensible if the current crisis in the Gulf is used to define European interests concerning its guaranteed supply and, if necessary, implement a consistent policy.
GERMANY, IRAN AND THE SOUTHERN CAUCASUS
The focus is especially on IRAN which holds 15% of the world's oil reserves. Berlin's intention is to decrease GERMAN dependence on RUSSIAN energy reserves with the help of IRANIAN natural gas. However, transfer of gas and oil to GERMANY still has to be organized which could create further conflicts. IRAN'S agreement for the construction of a gas pipeline to ARMENIA caused considerable disagreements between Moscow and Erewan which, until now, has been considered RUSSIA'S closest ally in the southern CAUCASUS. RUSSIAN specialists fear that the pipeline would be extended through GEORGIA and under the BLACK SEA to EUROPE and could diminish the sales of RUSSIAN natural gas in EUROPE. In view of these disagreements over the pipeline, the foreign office engaged in intensive activities concerning the CAUCASUS, which could complicate the struggle for dominance in the SOUTHERN CAUCASUS even further.
EXCLUSIVE CONNECTION WITH THE CAUCASUS
In order to secure the unhampered energy supply from the SOUTHERN CAUCASUS and CENTRAL ASIA, the CAUCASUS is of great geo-strategic significance for GERMAN-EUROPE. Berlin views the EU as a good starting point to challenge the RUSSIAN claim to power further in this region: The SWP clarifies that the various activities (OSZE, Energy Charta agreement, membership of all states of the CAUCASUS in the COUNCIL OF EUROPE, partnership and agreements of cooperation with the EU) would offer the basis for an exclusive connection of the CAUCASUS and the CASPIAN region with EUROPE. Advisers to Berlin's government demand that in this case a further involvement, which might include military intervention (”contribution to conflict resolution") and a coordinated EU strategy for the region. It should include a EUROPEAN contribution to conflict resolution and a connection with EUROPE beyond the threshold of EU membership as well as the design and the conversion of a transport infrastructure which would conform to EUROPEAN interests in securing [energy] supplies.
In order to secure the unhampered energy supply from the SOUTHERN CAUCASUS and CENTRAL ASIA, the CAUCASUS is of great geo-strategic significance for GERMAN-EUROPE. Berlin views the EU as a good starting point to challenge the RUSSIAN claim to power further in this region: The SWP clarifies that the various activities (OSZE, Energy Charta agreement, membership of all states of the CAUCASUS in the COUNCIL OF EUROPE, partnership and agreements of cooperation with the EU) would offer the basis for an exclusive connection of the CAUCASUS and the CASPIAN region with EUROPE. Advisers to Berlin's government demand that in this case a further involvement, which might include military intervention (”contribution to conflict resolution") and a coordinated EU strategy for the region. It should include a EUROPEAN contribution to conflict resolution and a connection with EUROPE beyond the threshold of EU membership as well as the design and the conversion of a transport infrastructure which would conform to EUROPEAN interests in securing [energy] supplies.
EU'S ENERGY POLICIES ARE IN SHARP CONTRAST TO THOSE OF THE US
Generally, the energy policy advisers to Berlin's government assume that, in the future, GERMANY and the EU will have to assert themselves in a more intense competition for such strategic resources as oil and gas. They say that, in view of the potential increase of the EU's dependency on larger oil and gas imports from the MIDDLE EAST and the PERSIAN GOLF, its own interests are already in conflict with AMERICAN energy policies. Similar conflicts are also foreseen in other supply regions. According to present estimates, the amount extracted by RUSSIA will not be sufficient to supply ASIA and EUROPE with the necessary amounts of oil and gas simultaneously. Thus they predict that in the future the EU might compete with ASIA and the USA for a partnership with RUSSIA. In CENTRAL ASIA, as well, an intensified economic and political competition for power especially with JAPAN, INDIA, the US and eventually RUSSIA over diminishing energy sources, cannot be precluded.
Energy Related articles:
ASIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH, A THREAT TO GERMAN EUROPEAN ENERGY SUPPLY
The rapidly increasing need for energy which is linked to the economic growth of ASIA, especially CHINA, is seen as a new threat to the GERMAN-EUROPEAN secure supply. The ASIAN countries are - as is the EU - increasingly dependent on importing energy. China (PRC) has already become the world's second largest consumer of energy next to the US. In particular, the Berlin strategists perceive a threat because CHINA seeks access to energy resources especially in those countries in which western energy companies are not well represented (i.e. IRAN, IRAQ, YEMEN or SUDAN). That CHINA, as well as INDIA, combine their energy cooperation with supplying states in relations to political, economic, military and military technology issues, provides them with increasing influence on these states and strengthens their position in the global theatre. This presents numerous challenges not only for the USA but also for EUROPE and these geopolitical implications have, so far, not been sufficiently considered.
The rapidly increasing need for energy which is linked to the economic growth of ASIA, especially CHINA, is seen as a new threat to the GERMAN-EUROPEAN secure supply. The ASIAN countries are - as is the EU - increasingly dependent on importing energy. China (PRC) has already become the world's second largest consumer of energy next to the US. In particular, the Berlin strategists perceive a threat because CHINA seeks access to energy resources especially in those countries in which western energy companies are not well represented (i.e. IRAN, IRAQ, YEMEN or SUDAN). That CHINA, as well as INDIA, combine their energy cooperation with supplying states in relations to political, economic, military and military technology issues, provides them with increasing influence on these states and strengthens their position in the global theatre. This presents numerous challenges not only for the USA but also for EUROPE and these geopolitical implications have, so far, not been sufficiently considered.
WAR GAMES
GERMANY urges that the EU should actively increase its political as well as its military power. Concepts based almost exclusively on factors and requirements of the market economy, are not sufficient for the preservation of WESTERN energy security, thus: The “game of the market powers" will be dominated, even determined, considerably by political power factors in a political crisis or during military conflicts. The GERMAN advisers to the government therefore demand that GERMANY and the EU must prepare for military conflicts in order to secure future supplies of energy.
The “Bundesakademie fuer Sicherheitspolitik" (federal academy for security policy) which, as a center for strategy of GERMAN war policy and, discusses in a current publication the geopolitical effects of open energy issue. It argues that this is of greatest strategic significance in striving for a joint foreign and military policy of the EU member states. This makes it compellingly necessary that for future GERMAN and EUROPEAN energy policies increased foreign and security policy factors will have to be considered.
The “Bundesakademie fuer Sicherheitspolitik" (federal academy for security policy) which, as a center for strategy of GERMAN war policy and, discusses in a current publication the geopolitical effects of open energy issue. It argues that this is of greatest strategic significance in striving for a joint foreign and military policy of the EU member states. This makes it compellingly necessary that for future GERMAN and EUROPEAN energy policies increased foreign and security policy factors will have to be considered.
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