Winning your NCAA tournament pool is about more than making the right picks -- it's about avoiding the disastrous ones. Here are the 10 things you don't want to do when filling out your bracket.
1. Go with the biggest trends. All week you're going to hear about St. Louis and Bucknell and the 12/5 upset that history says will happen. Don't be taken in by the wisdom of crowds. Following trends may feel right in the moment, then, boom, it's five years later and you're looking back at photos of yourself wearing skinny jeans and a trucker hat and wondering where it all went wrong. Fill out a bracket you can be proud of in three weeks, win or lose. Be your own bracketologist. Trends flame out quickly. St. Louis and Bucknell are great picks, but they're not as great if everyone else in your pool has them too. You win by zigging when other poolers zag.
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BUY OR SELL:What to embrace and avoid in NCAAs
2. Pick more than two No. 1s to make Final Four. If your bracket looks too chalky, remember this: Only four times in the 28-year history of the modern NCAA brackets have three No. 1 seeds made the Final Four. But don't turn your back on No. 1. There have been just two occasions where no top seed has made the Final Four.
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3. Rush your entry. There are four play-in games before the "real" tournament begins on Thursday. Few pools require you pick those game. However, the teams that win those First Four games will appear in the 64-team bracket you're picking. It doesn't matter whether Indiana plays LIU Brooklyn or James Madison in the second round. That won't affect you picking the Hoosiers to advance. You may consider taking the winner of Middle Tennessee State and St. Mary's to beat Memphis. Brackets aren't due until noon ET on Thursday and there's no bonus for submitting early. If you're looking for an upset from a First Four team, wait until the field of 64 is set on Wednesday night before making your picks.
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4. Pick Louisville. The tournament's No. 1 seed is the winner in 55 percent of ESPN brackets. Of the four writers who picked brackets for USA TODAY Sports, three went with Louisville to cut down the nets. Six of eight at CBSSports.com also chose the Cardinals. Wasn't this supposed to be the most wide open tournament in recent memory? Don't pick Louisville, not because they won't win, but because it will be harder for you to win if the Cardinals do. (Note: If Rick Pitino breaks out the white suit for the Final Four, all bets are off. That thing is sweet.)
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5. Go upset crazy. Let's say you think Pittsburgh (No. 8 seed) is going to beat Indiana (No. 1) in the third round. It's as reasonable a pick as any. But is the risk worth the reward? Pittsburgh could lose to Wichita State by 3:30 p.m. ET on the opening day of the tournament and suddenly that part of your bracket is ravaged likeKelvin Sampson rolled through it. Meanwhile, the rest of your pool is collecting easy points on Indiana getting through to the Sweet 16. Pick upsets in moderation and not at the expense of busting your bracket by dinner time Friday.
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6. Be a homer. An NCAA pool, like real estate, is all about location, location, location. If you live in Indiana, don't pick the Hoosiers to win, even if you bleed crimson and cream. If you're in a pool with all your friends from your days in Ann Arbor, go with Ohio State instead of Michigan. Assume that everyone is going with the home team. Remember, zig when they zag, which is doubly appropriate if you went to Gonzaga.
7. Overthinking it. Focus on picking your Elite Eight, then work backward. If you're in a pool with relatively normal scoring, it will be won on the second and third weekend, not the first. You may spend all your time debating whether to pick Illinois or Colorado in their second-round game, but if you have the winner losing to Miami, what does it matter?
8. Go with Notre Dame. Only once in its past 11 tournament appearances has Notre Dame advanced past the first weekend. This is good news for both Ohio State and people who value their retinas.
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9. Pick the team you hate. Is anything worth more than your soul? It's fine to pick against your favorite team. You don't want to jinx them. If they lose, at least your brackets will still be alive. But the same theory doesn't work with your least favorite team. It may sound like a good idea, in theory. "I'll pick Duke to win. I don't want it to happen, but why not benefit from everyone else's misfortune?" This is the same sort of thinking that led to the subprime mortgage crisis.
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10. Follow other people's advice. The guy who tells you he has a good feeling about Harvard this year is either: a) trying to mess with your head or b) Tommy Amaker. Don't listen to advice from anyone else, especially me; I haven't won anything since the sixth grade. Go with your gut. But if you're in my pool, go with Harvard. I've got a good feeling about them this year.
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