AND GAZPROMS DECLINING INFLUENCE IN EUROPE
Analyzing the situation in SYRIA, and how it differs from LIBYA, and recap the situation of GAZPROM (See http://www.gazprom.com/ ) which now finds itself in dire straits thanks to the US shale gas boom and the fracking revolution.
THE LEVEL OF US INTERVENTION IN A CONFLICT IS ALMOST ALWAYS DETERMINED BY OIL AND GAS.
The US is not getting involved in SYRIA, other than through back channels, precisely because SYRIA has little in the way of oil resources, and what it does has is the purview of FRANCE’S Total. Thus, FRANCE has been the most vocal about intervention in SYRIA; it has assets to protect. This is also why any governments who wish to help the SYRIAN rebel cause are funneling money through FRANCE. Herein lays the main difference between SYRIA and LIBYA, which is rich with oil and thus was ripe for fast intervention. It is also why ITALY was the first to light the fuse in LIBYA—to protect its ENI assets. (See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eni)
WHAT HAPPENS IN SYRIA NEXT WILL BE OF IMMENSE GEOPOLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE
and will involve a host of countries and micro and macro balances of power, from IRAN, IRAQ, TURKEY, LEBANON, ISRAEL, EGYPT and JORDAN most pressingly, and RUSSIA and the US indirectly. But it’s too complicated and there are too many variables to predict all the potential outcomes, so intervention on this level is diluted.
Washington is scrambling to help the “Free Syrian Army” to collect “donations” for the purchase of weapons and other equipment, but the funds have not been as forthcoming as hoped. Still, the rebels remain unrelenting, despite disunity in their ranks. What will unfold in the aftermath--understanding that the genuine rebel forces have been dangerously infiltrated by various extremist groups with diverse agendas--will help determine any shift in the balance of power in the MIDDLE EAST. Everyone’s actions are equally muddled, from the AMERICANS and the SAUDIS to the IRANIANS and ISRAELIS.
THE KURDISH EQUATION
In recent days, things have become more complicated, particularly with TURKEY in a tough spot supporting the rebels but fearing the empowerment of militant KURDS on its southern border in the process. To keep TURKEY happy, the SYRIAN rebels appear to be lashing out now, violently, at the KURDS. This is a bad omen. External forces were hoping to bring the KURDS into the rebel fold against Assad, with vague hints at KURDISH independence. Now this new front line has been more clearly drawn. The KURDS will hinder the rebel cause and TURKEY will be forced to fight back. While SYRIA itself cannot affect the oil and gas market, the geopolitical changes of the scale that will unfold can, and will.
(See http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-syrian-policies.htmland http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-erratic-foreign-policies-all.htmland http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/double-dealing-in-iraq-and-syria.html)
OUTCOME AFTER LIBYAN INTERVENTION WAS OBVIOUS. NOT THOUGH FOR THE USA AND BRITAIN
Meanwhile, in LIBYA, the recovery of oil production is insecure at best, despite the variety of optimistic reports that came to a very abrupt halt when the US envoy to LIBYA was murdered in an attack on the consulate in Benghazi. Even before this, though, intimations that the revolution in LIBYA had been a success were tainted by the reality on the ground: LIBYA is today a chaotic mess of countless, uncontrollable militias and the new government certainly is not in control.
If the USA and its allies, in particular BRITAIN would have done their homework regarding LYBIA well, they would have foreseen the negative outcome such interventions trigger. As always, ignorance, lack of multicultural awareness prompted the US and BRITAIN into this venture, naively believing that they could “stabilize and democratize” the ARAB world. Or at least make the region “stable” to such extend to retrieve their oil investment. (See: http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/09/us-intelligence-failures.html)
Another gas-related geopolitical dynamic one should closely follow in the coming weeks and months will be those nipping at the heels of RUSSIA’S GAZPROM, which has become hostage to the US shale gas boom. EUROPE has suddenly become brave in the face of its gas captor, and continued low gas prices will help it maintain courage. GAZPROM has already announced a restructuring of its finance and logistics assets in EUROPE, though it will deny that this was a result of any pressure by the investigatory forces in the EUROPEAN Commission.
Though the US is presently dithering over the issue of regulations that hinder natural gas exports, stalling a decision until after the elections, it can be assumed that we are on the edge of a bonanza of US natural gas exports, which will help further chip away at GAZPROM’S stranglehold on WESTERN EUROPE, and particularly on EASTERN EUROPE—the geopolitical implications of which are extremely beneficial for the US.
adapted from Oilprice
Advertisement
You have just read the article News for today's that category by title LIBYA, SYRIA. You can bookmark this page with a URL http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2012/10/libya-syria.html. Thank you!
Posted by: Tukiyooo
LIBYA, SYRIA Updated at :
7:56 AM
Sunday, October 7, 2012
Post a Comment