TURKEY'S GAMBLE ON KURDISTAN OIL
As tensions rise among IRAQI KURDS in the country's north, SUNNIS in the south and the SHI'ITE-led government in Baghdad over the distribution of natural resources, TURKEY is setting its sights on an unconventional alliance with the KURDISTAN Regional Government (KRG).
This is a gamble Ankara is willing to take, despite the potential implications it could have for KURDS on its own territory. As recently as 2009, Ankara had a very different view on the KRG, going as far as to label its leader, Masoud Barzani, a "bandit" who was turning a blind eye (at best) to KURDISH militants using NORTHERN IRAQ as a base to launch cross-border attacks on TURKEY. The KURDISTAN Workers Party (PKK) has been fighting the TURKISH government for more rights for decades.
So when Ankara began announcing a series of bilateral deals with the KRG (deals that went above Baghdad's head), everyone's first question was why would TURKEY want to align itself with an IRAQI Kurdish leadership who is clearly making a play to create a sovereign KURDISH state?
NORTHERN IRAQ STANDS TO BE ONE OF THE NEXT GREAT INVESTMENT AREAS IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Analysts at the intelligence firm Jellyfish say this is not such an unexpected or even illogical development from TURKEY'S standpoint, for NORTHERN IRAQ is a major market for TURKISH exports and that oil and gas coming from IRAQI KURDISH territory is moved on to worldwide markets through TURKEY.
From a financial and logistical standpoint, an Ankara-Erbil marriage is one of exceptional convenience. On the other hand one has to bear in mind that NORTHERN IRAQ stands to be one of the next great investment areas in the MIDDLE EAST, and so far the KRG has managed to outplay Baghdad in the natural resources and investment game.
The KRG signed a highly controversial deal with ExxonMobil to explore for hydrocarbons in NORTHERN IRAQ. The deal was signed without Baghdad's consent or consultation, which makes the deal perceivably illegal. Baghdad attempted to auction off another set of exploration blocks, but none of the big international players bid, balking at (among other things) clauses forbidding anyone to deal exclusively with the KRG.
PIPELINE DEALS – THE REAL REASON FOR THE CURRENT UP HEAVE IN THE MIDDLE EAST?
Furthermore the KRG and TURKEY announced plans to build a pipeline connecting Ceyhan, TURKEY, with NORTHERN IRAQ, and that this pipeline could carry 1 million barrels of oil per day and could be completed as early as August 2013. A second addition to the pipeline would connect it directly to the existing Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline by 2014. The KRG plans to export crude oil to TURKEY, which will be refined in TURKEY and re-exported to NORTHERN IRAQ.
A highly significant but oddly underreported development that will boost the KRG's power play for autonomy in NORTHERN IRAQ was the expression of support for the KRG's deal with ExxonMobil Ninewa province Governor Atheel Nujaifi. Nujaifi—from his seat in the provincial capital of Mosul—officially aligned himself with the KRG's oil rights moves against Baghdad, tipping the balance of power in the KRG's favor. The Ninewa seal of approval also bodes well for Exxon, as it signifies that there will be less violent opposition from local leaders over its move to court the KRG.
Here again, Baghdad loses out. Ninewa today is one of the last bastions of al Qaeda in IRAQ, and its blessing of the KRG-ExxonMobil deal is significant in terms of security.
IRAQ'S oil is IRAQ'S oil, as far as Baghdad is concerned, and the KRG does not have the authority to sign any export deals on its own, even if it plans to divert revenues from sales to the IRAQI central authority.
The KRG, however, has a number of major power players behind it, from Ankara to Brussels and Washington, all of whom would very much like to see IRAQI oil and gas find an easy way to Western markets.
In the end, TURKEY'S stance on NORTHERN IRAQ may seem like a paradox, but it is a logical move on many levels. With SYRIA in a state of violent upheaval, militant KURDS who threaten TURKEY from across that border, some experts argue, are no longer a focal point or even a threat by comparison. And Ankara's burgeoning relationship with the KRG has allegedly softened KURDISH militancy aimed at TURKEY in recent past.
THE SYRIAN EQUATION
The merger of SYRIAN and TURKISH Kurdish militias with the IRAQI KURDISH peshmerga would produce a KURDISH army of 225,000 fighting men.
Terrified that the separatism sweeping its brothers will infect the TURKISH KURDISH minority - and suspecting Washington of surreptitiously supporting it - TURKISH intelligence, the MIT, was instructed to establish and arm two TURKMEN militias in the SYRIAN KURDISH region: Brigades of Mehmet the Conqueror and Brigades of Sultan Abdulhamid.
REOPENING THE TRANS ARABIAN PIPELINE “TAPLINE” WOULD BENEFIT NOT ONLY SAUDI ARABIA, THE USA AND ISRAEL, BUT ALSO TURKEY
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| ARAMCO TRANS ARABIAN OIL PIPELINE |
The TRANS-ARABIAN Pipeline Company, a joint venture by STANDARD OIL OF NEW JERSEY (ESSO), STANDARD OIL OF CALIFORNIA (CHEVRON), THE TEXAS COMPANY (TEXACO) and SOCONY-VACUUM OIL COMPANY (MOBIL), was a major factor in economic development of LEBANON after independence and especially in the emergence of the south, Tapline was an important industrial adventure in global trade, the petroleum industry and AMERICAN - MIDDLE EAST politics.
The company which started operations in 1950 was the largest oil pipeline of its time, transporting SAUDI ARABIAN oil from the gulf fields to the terminal at ZAHRANI south of SAIDA, where it was shipped to the markets of EUROPE and the eastern UNITED STATES seaboard. At the peak of its operations in 1950, Tapline is said to have transported up to 30% of ARAMCO’S production of SAUDI ARABIAN crude, which amounted to 300,000 barrels per day which was increased by adding some additional pumping stations to 500,000 barrels per day.
The pipeline was originally planned to run from SAUDI ARABIA'S ABQAIQ oil fields to the port of HAIFA in PALESTINE where there already was a modest terminal facility for a pipeline from the Kirkuk oil fields in IRAQ. The conflict between the BRITISH MANDATE and the ISRAELI INDEPENDENCE movement had the Tapline Company surveying alternate routes already in 1946. These routes were all aimed at circumventing PALESTINE. "TRANS-JORDAN" appeared also at the time to be a country to be avoided. The final route went through JORDAN, over the GOLAN HEIGHTS in SYRIA - and not without some political consequences - to end at SIDON in LEBANON.
NEW ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST REGIME IN SYRIA IN ORDER TO REACTIVATE SAUDI ARABIA’S AND USA ARAMCO TRANS ARABIAN OIL PIPELINE?
Many geo strategic analysts and political experts are at odds over the reason why even the UNITED STATES, a key ally of ISRAEL, is pushing for a regime change in SYRIA, even if such move will probably turn SYRIA into a fundamentalist Islamic State at the doorsteps of ISRAEL. It could be argued that the USA and SAUDI ARABIA prefer a SUNNI fundamentalist Islamic government in SYRIA in order to eliminate IRANIAN influence in SYRIA and at the same time reactivate, for geo – strategic reasons, SAUDI ARABIA’S ARAMCO company constructed TRANS ARABIAN OIL PIPELINE “TAPLINE”
REACTIVATION OF PIPELINE WOULD ELIMINATE THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND ALSO BENEFIT TURKEY
Reactivation of the pipeline would eliminate the geo strategic importance of the STRAIT OF HORMUZ and thus IRAN’S leverage over the passage, through which 35% of the world’s crude oil is shipped. Needless to say, a blockade would have enormous global consequences. Sunni SAUDI ARABIA and Shiite IRAN have been at odds with each other over theological as well as economic issues for centuries (See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Hormuz)
PIPELINE ROUTE LEADS THROUGH PRO IRANIAN SYRIA, THE GOLAN HEIGHTS AND LEBANON, THUS A SAUDI FRIENDLY REGIME IS REQUIRED IN SYRIA IN ORDER TO ACTIVATE THE PIPELINE
In order to reactivate the TAPLINE however, SAUDIA ARABIA and its allies need to eliminate IRAN’S influence in SYRIA and stronghold in LEBANON, which is also home to pro IRANIAN HEZBOLLAH, because the route of the pipeline leads over SYRIAN terrain, ISRAL occupied GOLAN HIGHTS, ending in the Mediterranean oil terminal ZAHRANI, south of the city of SAIDA in LEBANON.
Since SYRIA fosters close eco – political ties with Shiite IRAN, SYRIA will hardly permit the reactivation of the “SAUDI” Tapline on its soil. Not to mention the GOLAN HEIGHTS, which had been seized by ISRAEL during the 6 day war and which are now monitored by United Nations Disengagement Observer Force, UNDOF. Israel and Syria technically are still at war, thus permitting reactivation of the Tapline on the Syrian side of the seized Golan Heights is out of the question, for it would need the consent of both, ISRAEL and SYRIA. (See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_War)
By tumbling the SYRIAN regime however, SAUDI ARABIA would be able to expand its influence in SYRIA and LEBANON, and thereby gain control over the pipeline and direct access to the MEDITERRANEAN SEA oil terminal south of SAIDA, from where crude oil could be shipped to EUROPE and the USA, at 40% less transport costs than by oil tankers passing through the SUEZ Canal in EGYPT. One could now keep on speculating why the “Arab Spring” in EGYPT did not turned out the way it was expected to be expected by the protesters!
NORTHERN IRAQ AND TURKEY
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Economics has played the greatest role in forging these new relations, and NORTHERN IRAQ has become a new staging ground for TURKEY companies and investment, with TURKS owning an estimated 50 percent of all major businesses operating under the KRG-controlled territory.
Furthermore, the pipeline deal announced between Ankara and the KRG in late May was in part a reaction to pressure to reduce imports from IRAN, but it also follows a logical path in the TURKEY-NORTHERN IRAQ relationship.
TURKEY knows that the pipeline deal and other energy deals forged with the KRG will set the stage for the creation of an independent KURDISH state. But in the meantime, TURKEY has made such a heavy footprint in NORTHERN IRAQ that its level of influence there is and will continue to be immense. As such, Ankara will wield much control over any potential sovereign KURDISH state.
As for the KRG, it shows no signs of backing down in the face of threats from Baghdad, and is hedging its bets that the combination of its natural resource wealth and Western power brokers on its side will give it the advantage. On June 11, the KRG told a gathering of potential investors at a business convention in the northern capital Erbil that it expected to quadruple oil production over the next three years, and that today's 250,000 bpd would be up to 300,000 bpd by the end of this year. The KRG is already translating this into a boom for other sectors beyond energy.
Above article was written by Jen Alic with additions made by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring
Background Information:
http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2011/12/energy-games-in-eastern-mediterranean.htmlhttp://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2011/09/turkeys-middle-east-chess-game.html
http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkeys-sunni-crescent.html
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Saturday, August 18, 2012
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