SYRIA AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY: A SUDDEN SWITCH IN PERCEPTION?
Since the beginning of the SYRIAN crisis Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoringclaimed that the crisis in SYRIA seems to have been triggered by foreign entities, and only partly by its own people. Knowing the SYRIAN mentality and political structure of the country, Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring has stressed that the entire uproar in SYRIA bears the signature of foreign Sunni entities that seek to topple the Shiite (Alawites) dominated SYRIAN Government. Nevertheless mainstream media under political influence and lobbies have portrayed the SYRIAN crisis as that of a bloody suppression by the SYRIAN government. Dissident groups, with bases in the UK, never tired of manipulating the conflict, with the help of SAUDI ARABIA and QATAR, who for their own reason have been trying to gain influence in SYRIA. Granted ASSAD is no saint. After all SYRIA is dictatorship, but regardless of this fact ASSAD managed to keep certain stability in the country. Something ISRAEL always preferred over other scenarios. (See related articles below)
UN ALLEGES AL QAIDA INVOLVEMENT IN SYRIA
In a curious turn of events, the UNITED NATIONS suddenly openly admits that in most likelihood Al-Qaida is present in SYRIA and thus causing the turmoil, with the help of SAUDI ARABIA and QATAR. Something Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring has analyzed and indicated month ago.
Furthermore Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring mentioned some time ago that SYRIA has a large amount of missile that can be armed with chemical and biological warheads. RUSSIA on the other hand suddenly reiterates that SYRIA has a large arsenal of chemical and biological warheads and in combinations with Iran’s nuclear ambitions and possible possession of nuclear warheads, could trigger a large scale conflict in the region, should foreign entities try to intervene in SYRIA and IRAN. See: http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/given-fact-syria-does-possess-chemical.html
TURKEYS INVOLVEMENT
For the first time the UN alleges that Al-Qaida was behind the Damascus bombing that killed approximately 55 people. According to know sources these Al Qaida members entered SYRIA via TURKEY, which complicates the situation for TURKEY, who has been conducting rather double edged sword politics over the last couple of years and thus annoyed not only its allies but also neighboring MIDDLE EASTERN ARAB countries, who see TURKEYS current moves as an effort of becoming a NEO-OTTOMAN empire, no matter at what cost.
On the other hand the recent UN statement will strengthen Assad in his claim that foreign entities are behind the turmoil in SYRIA and cause an even wider rift between SYRIA and TURKEY.
INTERNAL POWER STRUGGLE
In view of above switch in perception, it seems increasingly likely that the Assad regime will survive the conflict. What is rarely mentioned about the current Syrian conflict though is that this also an internal conflict and power struggle of Assad clan, namely with Rifaat al-Assad.
Via Wikipedia: Rifaat al-Assad played a key role in his brother's takeover of executive power in 1970, dubbed the Corrective Revolution and ran the elite internal security forces and the Defense Companies (Saraya al-Difaa) in the 1970s and early 1980s. He had a pivotal role throughout the 1970s and, until 1984, many saw him as the likely successor to his elder brother.In February 1982, as commanding general of the SYRIAN Army, he allegedly commanded the forces that put down a MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD (Sunni) revolt in the central city of Hama, by instructing his forces to shell the city, killing thousands of its inhabitants (reports range from between 5,000 and 40,000, the most common suggestion being around 15-20,000). This became known as the Hamas Massacre.
RIFAAT AL-ASSAD APPALLED FOR BEING BYPASSED BY HIS CLAN
When Hafez al-Assad suffered from heart problems in 1983, he established a six-member committee to run the country. Rifaat was not included, and the council consisted entirely of close Sunni Muslim loyalists to Hafez, who were mostly lightweights in the military-security establishment. This caused unease in the Alawi-dominated officer corps, and several high-ranking officers began rallying around Rifaat, while others remained loyal to Hafez's instructions. Rifaat's troops, now numbering more than 55,000 with tanks, artillery, aircraft and helicopters, began asserting control over Damascus, putting up posters of him; he was clearly launching a bid to succeed his brother.
Tensions between forces loyal to Hafez and those loyal to Rifaat were extreme, but by early 1984 Hafez had returned from his sick bed and assumed full control, at which point most officers rallied around him. In what at first seemed a compromise, Rifaat was made vice-president with responsibility for security affairs, but this proved a wholly nominal post. Command of the 'Defense Companies' was transferred to another officer, and Rifaat was then sent abroad on "an open-ended working visit". His closest supporters and others who had failed to prove their loyalty to Hafez were purged from the army and Baath Party in the years that followed.
Although he returned for his mother's funeral in 1992, and for some time lived in SYRIA, Rifaat was thereafter confined to exile in FRANCE and SPAIN. He nominally retained the post of vice president until 1998, when he was stripped of this. He had retained a large business empire both in SYRIA and abroad, partly through his son Sumer. However, the 1999 crackdown, involving armed clashes in Lattakia, destroyed much of his remaining network in SYRIA; large numbers of Rifaat's supporters were arrested. This was seen as tied to the issue of succession, with Rifaat having begun to position himself to succeed the ailing Hafez, who in his turn sought to eliminate all potential competition for his designated successor, his son Bashar al Assad.
In FRANCE, Rifaat has loudly protested the succession of Bashar to the post of president, claiming that he himself embodies the "only constitutional legality" (as vice president, alleging his dismissal was unconstitutional). He has made threatening remarks about planning to return to SYRIA at a time of his choosing to assume "his responsibilities and fulfill the will of the people", and that while he will rule benevolently and democratically, he will do so with "the power of the people and the army" behind him.
Rifaat's son Sumer is the head of a minor pan-Arab TV channel, the Arab News Network (ANN), which functions as his father's political mouthpiece. He also claims to run a political party, of uncertain fortunes. Rifaat himself heads the United National Group (al-tajammu` al-qawmi al-muwahhid), which is another political party or alliance; it is known to have self-professed members among Rifaat's fellow exiles from SYRIA, but neither can be considered an active organization, even if they will regularly release statements in favor of Rifaat's return to SYRIA and protesting president Bashar al Assad.
Further, Rifaat founded the Arab Democratic Party in LEBANON in the early 1970s, a small Alawite sectarian/political group in LEBANON, which during the LEBANESE Civil Way acted as an armed militia loyal to the SYRIAN regime (through Rifaat).Ali Eid the general secretary of the party today, supports the SYRIAN president Bashar Al-Assad.
RIFAAT AL ASSAD’S TIES TO SAUDIA ARABIA
Numerous rumors tie Rifaat al-Assad to various foreign interests.
Rifaat is considered close, by some observers, to King Abdullah of SAUDI ARABIA. Abdullah is married to a sister of Rifaat's wife, and Rifaat has on occasions—even after his public estrangement from the rulers in SYRIA—been invited to SAUDI ARABIA, with pictures of him and the royal family displayed in the state-controlled press.
It is claimed that Rifaat is reputed to have turned even to ISRAEL asking for assistance, and that he has initiated contacts with exiled representatives of the MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD. After the IRAQ war, there were press reports that he had started talks with US government representatives on helping to form a coalition with other anti-Assad groups to provide an alternative SYRIAN leadership, on the model of the IRAQI National Congress. Rifaat has held a meeting with the former IRAQI Prime Minister, the director of the US Congressional Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare, has stated that Rifaat enjoys support from both AMERICA and SAUDI ARABIA; he has been featured in the SAUDI press as visiting the royal family in 2007. The Bashar regime remains wary of his intentions and carefully monitors his activities.
Rifaat was mentioned by the influential AMERICAN think tank Stratfor as a possible suspect for the 2005 bombing that killed LEBANESE ex-prime minister Rafiq Harari and the string of attacks that has struck Beirut after the subsequent SYRIAN withdrawal. The goal would be to destabilize the SYRIAN regime. However, there has been no mention of Rifaat in the UNITED NATIONS reports on the crime.
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SYRIA: SWITCHING PERCEPTION Updated at :
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Saturday, May 19, 2012
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