ASSAD TO ANAN: SYRIAN MISSILES WILL PRE-EMPT ANY MILITARY INTERVENTION
via DEBKAfile
TALKING ABOUT WAR
The MIDDLE EAST has unknowingly been living for ten days under threat of a regional war, which debkafile’s military sources disclose was delivered by SYRIAN president BASHAR ASSAD to UN-ARAB LEAGUE peace envoy KOFI ANNAN when they first met Saturday, March 10.
SYRIA THREATENS TO UNLEASH MISSILES AGAINST ANY COUNTRY PREPARING FOR MILITARY INTERVENTION IN SYRIA
ASSAD warned him in no uncertain terms that SYRIA was ready to unleash its missiles against any country preparing for military intervention in SYRIA before they moved.
While not mentioning them by name, the SYRIAN ruler was referring to BRITAIN, FRANCE, NORWAY, HOLLAND AND ITALY whose navies and air forces were last week drawn up ready for action in positions in the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN and bases in the MIDDLE EAST, including the Royal Air Force AKROTIRI facility in CYPRUS.
While not mentioning them by name, the SYRIAN ruler was referring to BRITAIN, FRANCE, NORWAY, HOLLAND AND ITALY whose navies and air forces were last week drawn up ready for action in positions in the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN and bases in the MIDDLE EAST, including the Royal Air Force AKROTIRI facility in CYPRUS.
A Western military source reported to debkafile Monday night, March 19 that those EUROPEAN FORCES were standing ready to cordon off certain SYRIAN regions and cities as “security zones” off limits to SYRIAN units including its air force.
Cruising opposite the SYRIAN coast are the USS ENTERPRISE and the FRENCH CHARLES DE GAULLE, both aircraft carriers. They are part of the combat disposition the WEST has arrayed against IRAN and from their MEDITERRANEAN posts would take part in a military confrontation erupting in the PERSIAN GULF.
SWIFT BLOCKAGE FOR IRAN
Recently IRAN threatened to block the STRAIT OF HORMUZ in response for being cut off from SWIFT, (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunicationsupplying secure messaging services and interface software to wholesale financial entities)which caused a serious blow to its financial sector and which IRAN considers almost an act of war.
SYRIA WILL NOT HESITATE TO ATTACK TURKEY
In his conversation with ANNAN, TURKEY was the only foe ASSAD named specifically as his first target for a pre-emptive missile assault. He stressed he would have no qualms about attacking TURKEY.
TURKISH Prime Minister TAYYEP ERDOGAN is due to set out next week on a visit to SEOUL where he will rendezvous with US President BARACK OBAMA, possibly on March 28, for policy alignment on the IRANIAN nuclear threat and the year-old SYRIAN crisis. Our Washington sources report that OBAMA has set aside six hours for his conversation with ERDOGAN.
TURKEY: MEDIATOR OR WARMONGER
From the SOUTH KOREAN capital, the TURKISH leader is scheduled to fly straight to TEHRAN. The primary MIDDLE EAST issues, a nuclear IRAN and the SYRIAN impasse are therefore destined to reach a critical point in the coming days.
This may partly explain the announcement from, RUSSIAN BLACK SEA headquarters at SEVASTOPOL Monday that two RUSSIAN naval vessels had put into the SYRIAN port of TARTUS. The vessels’ mission and names were not disclosed, excepting that one carried a unit of “anti-terrorist marines” and the other was a military tanker which joined a RUSSIAN naval reconnaissance and surveillance ship already tied up in TARTUS.
This may partly explain the announcement from, RUSSIAN BLACK SEA headquarters at SEVASTOPOL Monday that two RUSSIAN naval vessels had put into the SYRIAN port of TARTUS. The vessels’ mission and names were not disclosed, excepting that one carried a unit of “anti-terrorist marines” and the other was a military tanker which joined a RUSSIAN naval reconnaissance and surveillance ship already tied up in TARTUS.
SYRIA COULD LAUNCH MISSILES WITH BIOCHEMICAL WARHEADS
As mentioned on 08 March 2012 in this blog , prior to KOFI ANNAN’S visit to SYRIA on the 10 March 2012, is the fact that SYRIA does possesses not only advanced missiles systems but also a lethal arsenal of chemical and biological warheads. Thus the prospect of Syria actually launching such biochemical warheads, if pushed further into the corner, becomes increasingly likely.
Use of biochemical weapons obviously bear certain risks for the country launching such warheads, but since ASSAD has nothing to lose he and his military echelons will most likely see no repercussion if launching them, be it chemical and biological contamination on their own territory due to unfavorable wind conditions, or from counter NATO missile attacks. From Assad’s point of view it is collateral damage. Interesting in this development is that ASSAD apparently did not mention ISRAEL as his prime missile target but TURKEY.
TURKEY, ISRAEL, CYPRUS, SYRIA: COMPLEX REGIONAL PLAYERS
In view of the looming standoff between either SYRIA and the WEST or IRAN, CYPRUS once again will play a key role for NATO forces which will use AKROTIRI ROYAL AIR FORCE Base as a forward logistic and operational base for its missions in the MIDDLE EAST and PERSIAN GULF region as well as a “host” for ISRAEL’S strategic needs and as a mediator between the ARAB world and WESTERN entities. As mentioned in a previous article on this blog, BRITAIN maintains two SOVEREIGN BASES in CYPRUS as part of the islands independence deal.
What adds to the complex situation in the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN is that CYPRUS-ISRAELI relations are influenced by developments in the region. It is of interest, therefore, to take them into account. The gradual strategic withdrawal of the UNITED STATES from the region (IRAQ and AFGHANISTAN in 2014), combined with what is happening in the ARAB world, after the changes brought about by the ARAB SPRING, is offering the two main players of the region, TURKEY and ISRAEL, more independence in their actions. TURKEY, seeking to strengthen her influence in the MIDDLE EAST and the ARAB world sided with the WEST and the ARAB LEAGUE against SYRIA’S President ASSAD, thus provoking the reaction of IRAN, whose only ally in the region is SYRIA. ISRAEL on the other hand, feeling that 2012 is a crucial year for its security, if IRAN acquires nuclear weapons, is seriously considering attacking IRAN’S nuclear sites. Whatever occurs in the region, be it armed interventions or energy related topics it will certainly have an impact on the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN and the MIDDLE EAST, including CYPRUS, TURKEY and ISRAEL. (See:http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2011/12/energy-games-in-eastern-mediterranean.html)
Within this framework, the improvement of relations between TURKEY and ISRAEL, proposed by some,(See: http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/02/geo-strategic-dynamics-in-eastern.html and http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/hostile-takeover.htmlread chapter: “US outwits the EU”) is a distant possibility, especially if we take into account ISRAEL’S mistrust of TURKEY and her ambitions, as well as the instability which prevails in the region. If it happens, however, it will match the traditional friendly relations CYPRUS has with the ARAB world, which do not bother ISRAEL. What matters is that at this moment ISRAEL needs strategic depth and CYPRUS can offer it. What strengthens the relations between CYPRUS and ISRAEL is the fact that both countries have common security and energy interests which can develop into a mutually beneficial partnership of outmost importance and magnitude.
Parts of above article have been adopted from Dr Andrestinos Papadopoulos article “Netanyahus landmark visit to Cyprus”, published in the Cyprus Mail
See also http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/01/see-no-evil-hear-no-evil.html
In view of Israel’s concerns expressed in the article below one has to raise the question over and over again as-to why Israel suddenly changed its decade long doctrine on Syria in favor of supporting the toppling of the Syrian regime?
SYRIA "CHEMICAL, BIOLOGICAL" WEAPONS CONCERN ISRAEL
Via Montreal Gazette Agence France-Presse
ISRAEL has serious concerns about what will happen to "huge stockpiles" of chemical and biological weapons in SYRIA when the ASSAD regime collapses, a senior military official said on Tuesday.
Major-General Amir Eshel, head of the ISRAELI military's planning division, said the working assumption was the regime of President BASHAR AL-ASSAD would eventually fall.
"The question is when, not if. And the big question is what's going to come the day after," he said.
"The immediate concern is the huge stockpiles of chemicals, biologicals (weapons), strategic capabilities that are still going into Syria, mainly from EASTERN EUROPE," Eshel said.
"That's a major concern because I don't know who is going to own those the day after. Up till now, what has been transferred to HEZBOLLAH? What will be transferred to HEZBOLLAH? What will be divided between those factions inside SYRIA? What is that going to create?
"We are talking about huge stockpiles," he said.
The regime has spearheaded a bloody crackdown on pro-democracy activists seeking to overthrow ASSAD, who has vowed to remain in power, raising the spectre of civil war between SYRIA'S many religious sects if he steps down.
Eshel said the threat of civil war was a real possibility if ASSAD clung to power.
"If ASSAD will adopt this Yemenite model and leave, it might prevent a civil war," he said, referring to an agreement that saw Yemen's former president ALI ABDULLAH SALEH agree in November to leave power.
"But if he won't leave of his own will, we might get into civil war," he said. "If there will be a civil war, it might be a disaster."
Eshel also warned that SYRIA faces bankruptcy, which could create new instability.
"I think the major challenge the SYRIANS will face in a few months, is bankruptcy. The reserves will be zero, and this is going to create, I think, internal turmoil. We can expect refugees in many countries."
On January 10, Israel's Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Benny Gantz told MPs that the military was preparing for the possibility of an influx of SYRIAN refugees, particularly on the occupied GOLAN HEIGHTS.
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SYRIAN MISSILES WILL PRE-EMPT ANY MILITARY INTERVENTION Updated at :
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Tuesday, March 20, 2012
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