ISRAEL AND IRAN - AIRSTRIKE UNLIKELY

<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwZFqgrq7CVYuav0ntVBpmHS33XtMySdYGsMC5eHRSw5eeKqId-TEykFCiLNlDY04mW6js2USVil0gLw2pD9YdaeYPE1vf6NuefdNrQNCwI6LLRhSBFLhTS15lz1CQvPwdG_xLCCkSAa_e/s1600/Israel-Iran_0013_thumb1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwZFqgrq7CVYuav0ntVBpmHS33XtMySdYGsMC5eHRSw5eeKqId-TEykFCiLNlDY04mW6js2USVil0gLw2pD9YdaeYPE1vf6NuefdNrQNCwI6LLRhSBFLhTS15lz1CQvPwdG_xLCCkSAa_e/s400/Israel-Iran_0013_thumb1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-outline-level: 1;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">WHY PROSPECTS OF AN ISRAEL IRAN CONFLICT REMAIN LOW</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">By Gregory R. Copley </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Global security concerns continued to be geared around the possibility of armed conflict between IRAN and ISRAEL, an issue hedged by a range of other conflicts and issues. The actual prospect of such a conflict, however, remained extremely low, for a variety of reasons, despite the near hysteria of media, and even poorly-reasoned reporting from “professional” intelligence agencies.<br /><br /></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Background Information</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">: </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">See: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">AIRSTRIKE UNLIKELY (posted 4 June 2012)</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/israel-iran-syria.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/israel-iran-syria.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">IRAN ALREADY ACQUIRED AT LEAST TWO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FROM FOREIGN SUPPLIERS </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The ostensible cause of the potential conflict remained the nominal determination of key WESTERN states to ensure that Iran did not acquire the capacity to build nuclear weapons, although even ISRAELI Prime Minister <b>Binyamin Netanyahu</b> has reportedly acknowledged that ISRAEL understood that IRAN had at least two nuclear weapons already deployed on medium-range ballistic missiles. These were weapons, how-ever, acquired from foreign suppliers, not from domestic sources.<br /><br />In reality, the issue is far more complex, and is particularly compounded by:<br /><br /><b style="color: red;">THE FACT THAT THE UNITED STATES IS IN A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEAR</b><span style="color: red;">, </span></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">which traditionally inhibits and distorts Administration decision making, and yet allows for opposition candidates to exercise strenuous — and often ill-informed and inflammatory — rhetorical positions;<br /><br /><b style="color: red;">THE FACT THAT THE IRANIAN DOMESTIC POLITICAL SITUATION IS CLOUDED</b><span style="color: red;">, </span></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">as a result of the Majlis elections which have already severely crimped the influence of incumbent Pres. <b>Mahmud Ahmadi-Nejad</b>, who may soon be eclipsed from power with the end of his term. However, even the present “Supreme Leader”, “Ayatollah” <b>Ali Khamene’i</b>, did not gain as much ground in domestic politics as he would have wished vis-à-vis <b>Ahmadi-Nejad</b>. This leaves power — insofar as it is concentrated at all — largely in the hands of the leader of the <b>Quds Force</b> of the IRANIAN Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC: Pásdárán), Brig. <b>Qassem Suleimani</b>. In any event, all talk of “reformists” in the IRANIAN clerical scene has evaporated. <br /><br /><b style="color: red;">THE REALITY THAT IRAN’S STRATEGIC REACH TO DOMINATE THE PERSIAN GULF AND THE NORTHERN TIER HAS BEEN EXTREMELY SUCCESSFUL</b><span style="color: red;">,</span> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">and this is compounded by the US/Coalition withdrawal from IRAQ, and the de facto strategic withdrawal (certainly du jure in a political sense) from AFGHANISTAN. IRAN has successfully used its influence over Shi’a populations — often regionally in a minority — to effectively control situations. The use by the IRANIAN clerics of the “anti-ISRAEL” jihadist rhetoric to win support from the vast Arab and Muslim populations has, however, failed: the Sunni populations, while buying the anti-ISRAEL line, have not coalesced in support for IRANIAN leadership. And the Sunni leaderships of Sunni-dominated Muslim states have reacted sharply to IRAN’S rhetoric as much as to IRAN’S real strategic grasp on, for example, IRAQ and SYRIA. As a result, </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">THE REAL PRESSURE FOR ACTION AGAINST IRAN — TO CUR-TAIL IRAN’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND TO OVERTHROW IRAN’S ‘ALAWITE ALLY IN SYRIA, THE BASHAR AL-ASSAD GOVERNMENT — COMES FROM THOSE WHO MOST FEAR TEHRAN: SAUDI ARABIA, TURKEY, AND QATAR</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">. <b> </b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><b>Significantly, this is not working, except at a public relations level</b>. In SYRIA, despite pressures from the Sunni-dominated <b>Arab League</b> (which excludes non-Arab IRAN), Pres. Assad seems set to continue to dominate the Islamist-led Sunni uprising.<br /><br /><b style="color: red;">THE FACT THAT TURKEY IS NOW FLAILING IN ITS ATTEMPTS TO CURTAIL THE GROWTH OF IRANIAN STRATEGIC REACH</b><span style="color: red;">. </span></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">TURKEY is also now itself becoming isolated at a time when its leader — and the real architect of TURKISH strategic “revival” — Prime Minister <b>Reçep Tayyip Erdogan</b>, is in rapidly-failing health. He is likely to be replaced either by Pres. <b>Abdullah Gül</b> or by Foreign Minister </span><span class="st"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Ahmet Davutoğlu</span></b></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">, both of whom are radical, but neither of whom has domestic political strength of <b>Erdogan</b>. Meanwhile, the ruling Islamists still have not mended their fences with the TURKISH Armed Forces, and TURKEY continues to suffer from an inability to address domestic KURDISH insurgency. If TURKEY alienates IRAN, then IRAN has made it clear that it has the capacity to stimulate activity in TURKEY by that country’s very large (20-million) Shi’a population, as well as stepping aside while KURDS gain more support from abroad. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Background information</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">: See <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-erratic-foreign-policies-all.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-erratic-foreign-policies-all.html</a>and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Turkey">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Turkey</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3284/alawites-syria-alevis-turkey">http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3284/alawites-syria-alevis-turkey</a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br /><b style="color: red;">THE FACT THAT THE CORE OF THE ISRAELI DEFENSE FORCE (IDF) AND THE ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ARE TOTALLY OPPOSED TO A MILITARY STRIKE AGAINST IRAN’S “NUCLEAR FACILITIES”</b> because they recognize that: <br /><br />(a)They cannot identify or reach all of IRAN’S nuclear facilities; <br /><br />(b)IRAN already has deployed nuclear weapons [probably more than the two known to be deployed on al-Shahab IRBMs] which may have a chance of surviving ISRAEL’S extensive anti-ballistic missile (ABM) network; <br /><br />(c)There are few real options to follow-up an air/missile strike against IRANIAN targets;<br /><br />(d)An ISRAELI first-strike against IRAN would actually coalesce IRANIAN sentiment around the ruling clerics and against ISRAEL; and <br /><br />(e)The UNITED STATES Government would unreservedly oppose an ISRAELI strike. <br /><br /></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">THE PROBABILITY OF A UNILATERAL ISRAELI STRIKE WOULD ONLY OCCUR IF AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT ACTUALLY PRESENTED ITSELF TO ISRAEL</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">What is also not understood by most commentators and foreign governments is the reality that Prime Minister <b>Netanyahu</b> and Defense Minister <b>Ehud Barak</b> have been attempting to persuade the <b>Obama </b>Administration in the US of the desirability of decisive military action against IRAN. This has not been a campaign to tell the US that ISRAEL would act unilaterally against IRAN. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">So what has not been seen is actual evidence of the probability of a unilateral ISRAELI stance, which would only occur if an existential threat actually presented itself to ISRAEL. At present, this is not perceived to be the case, even though Mr. <b>Netanyahu</b> portrays the IRANIAN nuclear weapons situation has being ultimately an existential threat. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The IDF, the ISRAELI Intelligence Community, the ISRAELI opposition parties, and so on, all categorically reject the idea of an ISRAELI first strike at IRANIAN targets, despite acknowledging that elected leaders (<b>Netanyahu, Barak</b>) might try to insist on such an action. But, absent tacit or express US approval for such an action (which even <b>Netanyahu</b>and <b>Barak </b>acknowledge requiring), such an attack would not occur. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">A UNILATERAL ISRAEL AIR STRIKE WOULD BE VIEWED GLOBALLY AS HAVING US SUPPORT </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Moreover, the US Government is aware that any action by ISRAEL — even if it was opposed by the US — would be seen globally as having US support; thus the US is committed to ensuring it does not happen. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The US <b>Obama</b> Administration has intentionally continued to leak reporting which would hamper such a step by ISRAEL, even “disclosing” that ISRAEL had arranged for the use of bases in AZERBAIJAN to stage air attacks into or exiting IRAN. That was a canard: the use of AZERBAIJANI facilities and air space was considered some years ago when ISRAEL had access to TURKISH air space, which would be essential to allowing access into and from AZERBAIJAN. That is no longer feasible. <b>However, US reports that ISRAEL lacked the reach or technical capability to undertake a first strike against IRAN are incorrect. ISRAEL has this capacity</b>.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b style="color: red;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">THE PERSIAN-ISRAELI LINK HAS BEEN MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL FOR TWO-AND-A-HALF MILLENNIA</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br /><br />The reality that the PERSIAN-ISRAELI link has been mutually beneficial for two-and-a-half millennia, and the recent IRANIAN clerical rhetoric against ISRAEL was for tactical purposes, although, in fact, reflecting the radical interpretation of Shi’ism and Islam by the clerics. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ISRAEL has what IRAN/PERSIA has always valued: access to the Mediterranean</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">. This is why IRAN courts or attempts to control SYRIA and LEBANON, but ISRAEL is what cements, or could cement, IRANIAN reach into the Mediterranean, and such a relationship also gives ISRAEL the ability to outmaneuver the Sunni populations which constrain it. Tehran escalated the anti-ISRAEL posture to maneuver against the US during the US-led war on IRAQ; now it must find a way to back down from this position (and likewise ISRAEL must find a way to retract from its reactive anti-IRANIAN stance) so that a rapprochement can be re-developed. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">SAUDI ARABIA — ENGAGE IN COVERT “INFORMATION SHARING” WITH ISRAEL, IN ORDER TO BOOST ISRAEL’S HOSTILITY TOWARDS IRAN </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg889xpeJSbeJjRt4yC9UkpvatWWsK_pYdK1TGYlSc-izcCSEW9xC2TjPr3TsqBuLxiHTFksWHxExK5sPKOCIq0vXcvRri5kongb92i3HD-ZqFLEU5P9MO0CBgJQEcPm_vy7sUDaZjiLOKT/s1600/280px-OsirakLocation.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg889xpeJSbeJjRt4yC9UkpvatWWsK_pYdK1TGYlSc-izcCSEW9xC2TjPr3TsqBuLxiHTFksWHxExK5sPKOCIq0vXcvRri5kongb92i3HD-ZqFLEU5P9MO0CBgJQEcPm_vy7sUDaZjiLOKT/s1600/280px-OsirakLocation.png" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span><span style="line-height: 115%;">Israel used Saudi airspace to strike IRAQI nuclear reactor in 1981</span></span></span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">This was less important to ISRAEL when it had a strong relationship with TURKEY, but that cannot be assumed to be salvageable until the last of the present leadership team departs office in TURKEY. Meanwhile, the Sunni states — and particularly SAUDI ARABIA — engage in covert “information sharing” with ISRAEL to boost ISRAEL’S hostility toward IRAN, and this has been particularly effective with Prime Minister <b>Netanyahu</b>.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Background Information</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">: See </span><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">IRAN AT THE DOORSTEPS OF ISRAEL</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/syria-israel-iran-and-usa.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/syria-israel-iran-and-usa.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br />The prospect exists that the RUSSIAN Federation, already concerned over its inability to control two states in which it invested so heavily (IRAN and TURKEY), may well sponsor a revived diplomatic approach to ISRAEL and encourage an ISRAEL-IRAN rapprochement. It is worth noting that ISRAEL has been quiet on the subject of promoting the end to the <b>Bashar al-Assad</b>Government in SYRIA, knowing that it is a close ally of Tehran. <br /><br /><b style="color: red;">IRAN ALREADY HAS DEPLOYED NUCLEAR WEAPONS, A FACT KNOWN BY THE USA AND ISRAEL SINCE 1991</b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Western commentators and politicians have locked themselves into an unsustainable position: attempting to deny IRAN access to nuclear weapons. The reality, as US and ISRAELI officials have now acknowledged, is that IRAN already has deployed nuclear weapons, albeit not domestically-made ones. This has been known, but not discussed, since 1991.<br />US and Western officials missed the opportunity, with the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), begun under US Pres. <b>Ronald Reagan</b>, to develop a system which would have effectively negated the efficacy of missile-based nuclear weapons. As a result, nuclear weapons proliferation is likely to continue, not just with IRAN, but potentially with TURKEY, which has been developing the capabilities to achieve nuclear weapons production capacity. <br /><br />As a result of this, and the reality that the size, geography, and capabilities of IRAN — including its alliance structure with NORTH KOREA (DPRK), and now the People’s Republic of CHINA (PRC) — preclude armed invasion (a la IRAQ, a much, much easier target), opponents of IRAN have limited options. One is to seek to create a viable relationship with IRAN so as to preclude the prospect of IRANIAN use (or threats of use) of nuclear weapons. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ISOLATING IRAN THROUGH SANCTIONS AND HOSTILITY HAS ENABLED THE CLERICS TO BUILD A SOCIETY WHICH THEY CAN DOMINATE</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">This, obviously, from a Western or ISRAELI standpoint would be better facilitated if IRAN was governed by a non-clerical administration. The question, then, would be how such an outcome could be achieved. Significantly, isolating IRAN through sanctions and hostility has enabled the clerics to build a society which they can dominate. Isolation works both ways; in this case, it has strengthened clerical control of the IRANIAN population. Attempts to sow secessionist discord among IRANIAN constituent populations have thus far failed, although the most significant attempts — to create secessionism in Baluchistan — have actually fueled secessionist momentum in PAKISTANI BALUCHISTAN and, to a degree, AFGHAN BALUCHISTAN.<br /><br />Indeed, all realities may change if secessionist movements take root in AFGHANISTAN and PAKISTAN as the present AFGHANISTAN war winds down and the US and Coalition forces depart the area. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b style="color: red;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">LOSS OF US INFLUENCE IN THE PERSIAN GULF, THE NORTHERN TIER AND CENTRAL ASIA FORCES ISRAEL TO ADAPT NEW GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIES</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><span style="color: red;">  </span><br /><br />As things stand at present, IRAN stands to gain — whether under a clerical government or not — and the US has lost (and continues to lose) influence in the PERSIAN GULF, the NORTHERN TIER, (<a href="http://www.answers.com/topic/northern-tier-pennsylvania">http://www.answers.com/topic/northern-tier-pennsylvania</a>) and CENTRAL ASIA. ISRAELI leaders must take account of this obvious reality, and plan for a new strategic framework, one which includes a new energy relationship with the EUROPEAN UNION, a new relationship with RUSSIA, and a new relationship with IRAN (which can also be facilitated by the PRC). <br /><br /><b style="color: red;">IF THE SUNNI STATES — AND PARTICULARLY SAUDI ARABIA, QATAR, AND TURKEY — SUCCEED IN OVERTHROWING THE IRANIAN-SUPPORTED ‘ALAWITE LEADERSHIP IN SYRIA, THEN ISRAEL WILL FACE A REINVIGORATED “ARAB” THREAT</b><span style="color: red;">. </span></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Israel is already conscious of the fact that SAUDI ARABIA and QATAR have almost succeeded in replacing an anti-SAUDI leadership in Libya (<b>Mu’ammar al-Qadhafi</b>) with a pro-SAUDI/salafist-jihadist leadership in Tripoli. Significantly, the non-salafist LIBYAN province of <b>Cyrenaica</b>has resisted this, and has called — as it did when it started the anti-<b>Qadhafi</b> revolt in February 2011 — <b>for the restitution of the 1951 Libyan Constitution</b>, <b>which allows for a federal structure</b>. This would wrest control of the oil from radical Tripolitania and the salafist interim President of LIBYA, and return it to <b>Cyrenaica</b>, under the moderate and pro-Western Senussi sect. <br /><br />These are all inter-related aspects of the current framework which is only superficially addressed in the “<b>international debate</b>” as to whether ISRAEL would or should strike at IRANIAN nuclear facilities. The real issue includes the broader conflict for dominance between Shi’ism and Sunnism, and nationally between TURKISH and IRANIAN competition for historical reach.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Background Information: </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">See <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/sunni-versus-shia-middle-easts-new.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/sunni-versus-shia-middle-easts-new.html</a>and</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkeys-sunni-crescent.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkeys-sunni-crescent.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/turkey-and-central-asia.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/turkey-and-central-asia.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/turkey-shiite-persians-versus-wahhabi.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/turkey-shiite-persians-versus-wahhabi.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/how-iran-nuclear-standoff-looks-from.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/how-iran-nuclear-standoff-looks-from.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-size: large;">Furthermore, on a simpler perspective on should bear in mind that as long as ISRAEL keeps “publicly promoting” an attack on IRAN, the chances of it taking place are minimal for the much needed “surprise effect” has been lost. The minute ISRAEL refrains from its rhetoric’s and the current geostrategic and geopolitical situation persist; the chances of ISRAEL striking IRAN could be more imminent. Nevertheless in most likelihood all the sabre rattling by ISRAEL are pure political tactics. </span><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /></span></div>

ISRAEL AND IRAN - AIRSTRIKE UNLIKELY

WHY PROSPECTS OF AN ISRAEL IRAN CONFLICT REMAIN LOWBy Gregory R. Copley Global security concerns continued to be geared around the possibility of armed conflict between IRAN and ISRAEL, an issue hedged by a range of other conflicts and issues. The ac…

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