You Can't Handle the Truth!

The following chart shows the semiannual average of the 30-year conventional mortgage rate.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg-LSZN8I4RXAzPLaplGFaUGgQH2AFlBtZG4-6av_BeISGUqonCpeOZV4OBm7KDzdeSSL_lzhSjK_cqwueHB4vjlfSXNsMCQZOBl8N04NweAIULug1dosj_cmyO_sAzU3syOvQ5qbLxbQ/s1600/You+Can%27t+Handle+the+Truth%21.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgg-LSZN8I4RXAzPLaplGFaUGgQH2AFlBtZG4-6av_BeISGUqonCpeOZV4OBm7KDzdeSSL_lzhSjK_cqwueHB4vjlfSXNsMCQZOBl8N04NweAIULug1dosj_cmyO_sAzU3syOvQ5qbLxbQ/s320/You+Can't+Handle+the+Truth!.jpg" /></a><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Click to enlarge.</span><br /><br />I have added an exponential decay trend line in blue and an exponential decay channel in red. To create the top of the channel, I multiplied the interest rate in blue by 1.2 (+20%). To create the bottom of the channel, I multiplied the interest rate in blue by 0.8 (-20%).<br /><br />Over the long-term, does that look like a rising interest rate environment to you? Is there any indication, any indication at all, that the long-term trend is failing? As of the 2nd half of 2013, we're sitting right on the long-term trend line in blue.<br /><br /><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/5j2F4VcBmeo" width="420"></iframe><br /><br /><div style="color: red;"><i>You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that hits housing walls and those housing walls have to be guarded by men with continually falling interest rate policies.<br /><br />Did you see the stock market turn red?<br />I did the job.<br />Did you see the stock market turn red?<br />You're goddamned right I did!</i></div><br />This is not investment advice.<br /><br /><b>Source Data:</b><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=rxC">St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart</a>

You Can't Handle the Truth!

The following chart shows the semiannual average of the 30-year conventional mortgage rate. Click to enlarge. I have added an exponential de...

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