Our Manufacturing Employment Boom Bubble

The following chart shows the annual change in manufacturing employees. I'm using semiannual data to filter out some of the noise.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDjS_nuzPQRcbX9S2RLA1hXaITSvup6lKNI9oIwZ9bVuoestwxz9OjOeotVv2m8H9duBYCblezyipvDOX-UMpPHMc9K973XL43lu9pakSfzhkLEzobUMQwV29dNHAOYiiP8wrMbu2fvG0/s1600/Our+Unsustainable+Manufacturing+Employment+Boom.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDjS_nuzPQRcbX9S2RLA1hXaITSvup6lKNI9oIwZ9bVuoestwxz9OjOeotVv2m8H9duBYCblezyipvDOX-UMpPHMc9K973XL43lu9pakSfzhkLEzobUMQwV29dNHAOYiiP8wrMbu2fvG0/s320/Our+Unsustainable+Manufacturing+Employment+Boom.jpg" /></a><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Click to enlarge.</span><br /><br />How can people be optimistic about the future of long-term employment when looking at that chart? Is it because they are looking at the following chart instead (and cherry picking just the good stuff)?<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEia-ophX43bFp_qLHlh4yeBxrQmUkMq1bSlO5AM4qA57ARR2dh8scxZ0nhJQ6Cra_a-HRdA7-LQrbATw4HruxTHcXh5W43iB0nvZNt-NVxMOcYAzyN1DUDt_oKzF0-ZKaVe5-U4Jt90Xk8/s1600/Manufacturing+Employment.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEia-ophX43bFp_qLHlh4yeBxrQmUkMq1bSlO5AM4qA57ARR2dh8scxZ0nhJQ6Cra_a-HRdA7-LQrbATw4HruxTHcXh5W43iB0nvZNt-NVxMOcYAzyN1DUDt_oKzF0-ZKaVe5-U4Jt90Xk8/s320/Manufacturing+Employment.jpg" /></a><br /><br /><b>Cherry Picked Goodness</b><br /><br />1. The growth rate is <b>still</b> positive! Hurray!<br />2. It's different this time! Woohoo!<br />3. Thanks to the Fed, recessions are now impossible!<br /><strike>4. We've lost more than 5 million manufacturing jobs since 2000. 12 million to go.</strike><br /><br />Can't you see that we're being Khan'd?<br /><br /><i style="color: red;">He is intelligent, but not experienced. His pattern indicates two-dimensional thinking.</i> - <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0084726/quotes?item=qt0454861">Spock, The Wrath of Khan (1982)</a><br /><br />One-dimensional thinking: The growth rate is still positive.<br />Two-dimensional thinking: The growth rate is positive but slowing.<br />Three-dimensional thinking: Somethin's poppin' and it ain't <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiffy_Pop">popcorn</a>.<br /><br />This is not investment advice. As always, just opinions.<br /><br /><b>Source Data:</b><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=rta">St. Louis Fed: Manufacturing Employment Growth</a><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=rtb">St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Manufacturing</a>

Our Manufacturing Employment Boom Bubble

The following chart shows the annual change in manufacturing employees. I'm using semiannual data to filter out some of the noise. Click...

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