The Unmentionable Employment Growth Risk

The following chart shows quarterly employment growth using the average of the establishment and household surveys.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5R6oQ1WefZ78IbzvOEExMZzQavjpdAzUuyFTrhQF_gY6nieS6X-SDE169hbLnUgcrbvwltgEgjetJpE-t7QWxscPtdvyA2YeevV0TWr-cMFGlYR6GRjHOkWnEkmELVhWCi6kw5fvzVAs/s1600/The+Unmentionable+Employment+Growth+Risk.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5R6oQ1WefZ78IbzvOEExMZzQavjpdAzUuyFTrhQF_gY6nieS6X-SDE169hbLnUgcrbvwltgEgjetJpE-t7QWxscPtdvyA2YeevV0TWr-cMFGlYR6GRjHOkWnEkmELVhWCi6kw5fvzVAs/s320/The+Unmentionable+Employment+Growth+Risk.jpg" /></a><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Click to enlarge.</span><br /><br />I have added a parabolic trend channel in red using the data points in red. I have also added a parabolic trend in blue that uses all of the data points.<br /><br />If the Fed's only tools to fight gravity are ZIRP and QE, then everything starts to look like a parabola.<br /><br />This is not investment advice. I do not claim to be able to accurately predict the future based on extrapolating the recent past. That said, you better hope that the chart is just a silly distraction in <a href="http://www.despair.com/fear.html">an endless sea of prosperity</a>. I mean really, you better hope that. The stock market has had quite a run since 2009. No party lasts forever.<br /><br /><b>Source Data:</b><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=riF">St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart</a>

The Unmentionable Employment Growth Risk

The following chart shows quarterly employment growth using the average of the establishment and household surveys. Click to enlarge. I have...

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