1995 vs. 2013

I heard on CNBC that the DJIA had its best year since 1995. It was theorized that perhaps the market would continue to behave like the late 1990s.<br /><br />The following scatter chart shows the 10-year treasury yield vs. the DJIA in 1995.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUBLPS0hHvI41fYbXLGy_wA25MHF-pwC9a9JDKrMwsrbFpNhBm8mEw7RJOUhrIf751XRDFm7jgVLbivuMgrcWyxF9AtQ6O3oHUJChiNJTAkCzqfuSBfZ8MivTrUGGdjzXS2EQEL7NUViE/s1600/1995.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUBLPS0hHvI41fYbXLGy_wA25MHF-pwC9a9JDKrMwsrbFpNhBm8mEw7RJOUhrIf751XRDFm7jgVLbivuMgrcWyxF9AtQ6O3oHUJChiNJTAkCzqfuSBfZ8MivTrUGGdjzXS2EQEL7NUViE/s320/1995.jpg" /></a><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Click to enlarge.</span><br /><br />As <span style="color: red;">interest rates <b>fell</b></span><span style="color: red;"> consistently</span>, the stock market rose consistently.<br /><br />Let's do the same chart for 2013.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrSZU9Z3oIQoyaKAdBjt9-RGY5FiqsdWXJN3zE28wnl6UNubeW8FS4pEtW6iKfPgQO-3BFb15Ud95qCyuHNLX7IBlZDjunH1_Zvl6N8GnS0ICmcc9RRlKiOzrsDPpuRC6uBBL6HFQZDhE/s1600/2013.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrSZU9Z3oIQoyaKAdBjt9-RGY5FiqsdWXJN3zE28wnl6UNubeW8FS4pEtW6iKfPgQO-3BFb15Ud95qCyuHNLX7IBlZDjunH1_Zvl6N8GnS0ICmcc9RRlKiOzrsDPpuRC6uBBL6HFQZDhE/s320/2013.jpg" /></a><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Click to enlarge.</span><br /><br />As <span style="color: red;">interest rates <b>rose</b></span><span style="color: red;"> chaotically</span>, the stock market rose consistently.<br /><br />Other than the added chaos and inverted interest rate trend, the two charts are nearly identical! You just need to be wearing rose colored glasses so that you cannot see my commentary in red easily. It also helps to look at one of the two charts using a rear view mirror. That way the image will reverse and the trends will therefore look much more similar. It's a small price to pay for optimism!<br /><br />If 1996 through 1999 is any indication (using red smoke and mirrors), I think we can expect great things from 2014 through 2017. Yes!<br /><br />Too much sarcasm? Seems fairly heavy this time.<br /><br /><b>Source Data:</b><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=qv0">St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart (1995)</a><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=qv1">St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart (2013)</a>

1995 vs. 2013

I heard on CNBC that the DJIA had its best year since 1995. It was theorized that perhaps the market would continue to behave like the late ...

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