Parabolic Industrial Production

This is an update to Friday's <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2013/09/industrial-production-has-gone-parabolic.html">industrial production</a> post.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRePlyrMAWCJyZnHQCtjlhHpwasZNnSpOFLJ2HbH4KwmZoabMtXaktHd3j_rtY40VsCYGJPXpU1Xye67fGMi7KTa5e2eRolY_taNLnPbRgjv1HCNEKfo54eH2KnEfdEUnZCW-v4j-4uD0/s1600/Industrial+Production+Index+v,2.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRePlyrMAWCJyZnHQCtjlhHpwasZNnSpOFLJ2HbH4KwmZoabMtXaktHd3j_rtY40VsCYGJPXpU1Xye67fGMi7KTa5e2eRolY_taNLnPbRgjv1HCNEKfo54eH2KnEfdEUnZCW-v4j-4uD0/s320/Industrial+Production+Index+v,2.jpg" /></a><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Click to enlarge.</span><br /><br />The correlation is the same 0.985 it was on Friday. If you squint, you can see that August was a good month. It did come in slightly above trend, but not by all that much in the grand scheme of things.<br /><br />Since all I really care about is the underlying long-term trend, let's eliminate much of this monthly noise by using 12-month moving averages instead.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-nt1TYD28zSl1m2hp9RKDywSZ26C06tgzeD-RcM1AWsgl1JisHrsVM04qO1T8Z61uglePtSdXHo7pcZ6ymUIHC_NEZiDV7ERX3KO2BK0XDbYs3rUnQTQiMROgwDqS86COeF_R-AI-8sw/s1600/Industrial+Production+Index+v,2+-+Moving+Average.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-nt1TYD28zSl1m2hp9RKDywSZ26C06tgzeD-RcM1AWsgl1JisHrsVM04qO1T8Z61uglePtSdXHo7pcZ6ymUIHC_NEZiDV7ERX3KO2BK0XDbYs3rUnQTQiMROgwDqS86COeF_R-AI-8sw/s320/Industrial+Production+Index+v,2+-+Moving+Average.jpg" /></a><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Click to enlarge.</span><br /><br />I have rarely seen a more perfect parabola in all of economics; and we are currently riding right on top of it.<br /><br /><b>Source Data:</b><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=mqP">St. Louis Fed: Industrial Production Index</a>

Parabolic Industrial Production

This is an update to Friday's industrial production post. Click to enlarge. The correlation is the same 0.985 it was on Friday. If you ...

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