Long-Term Recession Odds

The following chart shows the odds that a month chosen at random is within a recession.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHAqKHIw9_T1Vb7NoczXzF4yGvexWouVkHxHJYCQMs6nsTtR672ip9vYx8Pi8_UOy_bWbsm0J_BmZR3_qEKBuA_lPH3Vk4cxPsPwN1trlsiXpEtQCXTpZBLs3MC2z78_dwZRS81d1mnyM/s1600/Long-Term+Recession+Odds.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHAqKHIw9_T1Vb7NoczXzF4yGvexWouVkHxHJYCQMs6nsTtR672ip9vYx8Pi8_UOy_bWbsm0J_BmZR3_qEKBuA_lPH3Vk4cxPsPwN1trlsiXpEtQCXTpZBLs3MC2z78_dwZRS81d1mnyM/s320/Long-Term+Recession+Odds.jpg" /></a><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Click to enlarge.</span><br /><br />The 15-year moving average is shown in black. The average since World War II is shown in red.<br /><br />In my opinion, the odds of the Fed permanently putting a stop to future recessions is about as likely as monkeys magically appearing out of my you know what.<br /><br />It is also my opinion that the low recession frequency of the 1980s and 1990s is officially over. If so, then we can expect 1 month out of every 6 to be in recession, which oddly enough is the same odds one would have in a game of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_roulette">Russian Roulette</a>.<br /><br /><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="236" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/8Xjr2hnOHiM" width="420"></iframe><br /><br />Feeling lucky?<br /><br /><b>Source Data:</b><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USRECM">St. Louis Fed: NBER based Recession Indicators</a>

Long-Term Recession Odds

The following chart shows the odds that a month chosen at random is within a recession. Click to enlarge. The 15-year moving average is show...

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