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ISRAEL’S DEFENSE STRATEGY OVERHAUL

<br /> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 7.5pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-outline-level: 1;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt;"> </span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 7.5pt; text-align: center;"><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">  </span></b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 7.5pt; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ISRAEL REDEFINES VICTORY IN THE NEW MIDDLE EAST</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 7.5pt 0in 0in;"><br /><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: x-small;">By Yaakov Lappin via GSI</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 7.5pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Senior ISRAELI officials have indicated this month that any round of future fighting with Hezbollah will make last month's Gaza conflict seem minor by comparison. Offense, not defense, is still preferred. </span></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ISRAEL is redefining its concept of military victory in a MIDDLE EAST dominated by terrorist organizations turned quasi-state actors.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue;"> </span></span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ISRAEL DEFENSE FORCES (IDF) “KNOCKOUT” IMAGE – OUT OF DATE IN THE 21<sup>ST</sup> CENTURY BATTLE ARENAS OF THE REGION </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Once, decisive, unmistakable victories, accompanied by conquests of territory that had been used to stage attacks against ISRAEL, provided all parties concerned with a "knockout" image. Victory was seen by the ISRAEL Defense Forces as a clear-cut event, which ended when the enemy raised a white flag. Today, however, the IDF considers this thinking out of date in the 21<sup>st</sup> century battle arenas of the region, where a terror organization such as Hamas will continue firing rockets into ISRAEL, right up until the last day of a conflict, and claim victory despite absorbing the majority of damages and casualties.</span></span><br /><br /><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">SEIZING CONTROL OF THE ENEMY'S TURF IS SEEN AS A SHORT-TERM INITIATIVE</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Today, the goal of seizing control of the enemy's turf is seen as a short-term initiative, and assuming long-term control and responsibility for hostile populations is a highly unpopular development among strategic planners, who now argue that this should be avoided wherever possible.</span></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">For decades, the IDF has been facing irregular asymmetric terrorist organizations which can change form, melt away and reform according to their needs.</span></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The last time ISRAEL fought direct battles with organized, hierarchical military foes was during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Today, as the main goal of most conflicts, victory has been replaced by deterrence. Deterrence, rather than clear-cut conquest or triumph over the enemy, has formed the goal of ISRAEL'S last three conflicts: the Second LEBANON War of 2006; Operation Cast Lead against Hamas and Islamic Jihad in 2009 and Operation Pillar of Defense against the same entities in Gaza in November.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue;"> </span></span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">WAS THE SECOND LEBANON WAR A REAL VICTORY FOR HEZBOLLAH? </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Although the Second LEBANON War was claimed by Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah as a "divine victory," six and a half years later, at the end of 2012, Hezbollah has still not repaired all of the damage it suffered in that conflict, and the LEBANESE-ISRAELI border has never been quieter. Despite several glaring tactical and operational shortcomings, as a deterrent the Second LEBANON War was an ISRAELI victory.</span></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Nevertheless, deterrence-based military achievements are temporary by nature. At some point, deterrence erodes away, and must be reestablished all over again. This is what happened in Gaza last month. And the IDF has been preparing for a fresh confrontation with Hezbollah in LEBANON, which today is armed with at least 50,000 rockets and missiles, many of them with a range of 200 kilometers that can strike deep inside ISRAEL.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">1500 TARGETS STRUCK IN GAZA DURING NOVEMBER'S OPERATION OVER THE COURSE OF 8 DAYS, COULD HAVE BEEN STRUCK IN 24 HOURS HAD THE IAF ELECTED TO DO SO</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Quietly, the ISRAEL Air Force has been upgrading its weapons systems to allow it to face down Hezbollah with enhanced firepower. The new systems currently installed in IAF jets mean that a very large number of targets can be struck in LEBANON from the air within a very short period of time. The 1500 targets struck in Gaza, for example, during November's operation over the course of eight days, could have been struck in 24 hours had the IAF elected to do so.</span></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ISRAELI intelligence has been mapping out the weapons storehouses in southern LEBANESE villages and towns, and building up a long list of targets, for the day that ISRAEL'S deterrence runs out.</span></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The IDF's evolving new doctrine involves short spells of fighting, in which the IDF hits the other side hard – hard enough to ensure that the ISRAELI home front will enjoy prolonged calm after the fighting ends. As opposed to the mission of utterly destroying Hamas or Hezbollah, such limited goals can be obtained quickly. Hezbollah is fully aware, meanwhile, that should it begin another conflict, it will reap major destruction on LEBANON.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: right;"></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><b>See related Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring article</b>:  <b>IDF l</b></span><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ong-range, largely clandestine and multi-service missions</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> <b>and</b> <b>D</b></span><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">epth corps, a new concept for the IDF</span></b></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><span style="font-size: x-large;"> <b>at:</b> </span><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/idf-israeli-defense-forces.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/idf-israeli-defense-forces.html</a></span></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">FLEXIBLE DOCTRINE </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The ISRAELI doctrine is flexible. It allows the IDF to choose the severity of the blows it lands on the enemy, depending on the circumstances of each fight, and the adversary involved.</span></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Senior ISRAELI defense sources have indicated this month that any future round of fighting with Hezbollah will make last month's Gaza conflict seem minor by comparison. Even if the goal will not be to destroy Hezbollah, the organization is still susceptible to enormous damage; it is well aware of its exposure to overwhelming ISRAELI firepower.</span></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The day after a future conflict ends, one defense source said this month, Hezbollah will have to "get up in the morning and explain to their people" why they invited yet more destruction to LEBANON.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">HAMAS AND HEZBOLLAH MORE VULNERABLE THAN EVER</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The fact that Islamist terror organizations Hamas and Hezbollah have formed political entities, and are responsible for managing the affairs of their people, means that they are more vulnerable than ever.</span></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Unfortunately, the rocket and missile capabilities possessed by both means that ISRAELI civilians are also in the firing line; and the IDF is not counting on rocket defense systems such as Iron Dome to prevent wide-scale damage and secure future victories. Even in the service of the limited goal of deterrence, offense, not defense, is still preferred.</span></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Finally, the new doctrine is not fixed in stone; should ISRAEL ever find that it cannot deter the enemies on its borders, it may choose to revert to its older method of defending its citizens: fully vanquishing hostile forces, despite the price it may have to pay.</span></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><br /><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div>

ISRAEL’S DEFENSE STRATEGY OVERHAUL

ISRAEL REDEFINES VICTORY IN THE NEW MIDDLE EAST By Yaakov Lappin via GSI Senior ISRAELI officials have indicated this month that any rou...

ISRAEL’S DEFENSE STRATEGY OVERHAUL

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