Click to enlarge.
Good luck blaming the slow and steady growth rate decline (since 2012) on this winter's weather.
In May of 2012, I predicted that the next recession would hit on or before October 2014. Eight months to go. I see little reason to alter my opinion. At the rate we're going, it could be close enough for government work anyway. I truly hope I am wrong. Seriously.
If I am right (might not be of course), this is going to be a nasty recession. Why? Many seem to think a recession is impossible during ZIRP and that the Fed has saved us. What a confidence shaking wake-up call that would be.
I am especially amused by the party of 1999. Had we not thrown such a spectacular one (and hoarded for the Y2K bug that was a non-event), the recession may have happened right then and there. Praise be to celebratory can-kicking.
And lastly, rising interest rate environment my @$$.
This is not investment advice. As always, just ugly charts and opinions.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Retail Sales: Total (Excluding Food Services)
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Posted by: Tukiyooo
The Next Recession Arriving Right on Schedule? Updated at :
11:20 PM
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
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