Click to enlarge.
Rising interest rates? In my opinion, the bond market is simply trying to climb back to the long-term declining trend.
Long time readers know that I post a lot of exponential trend failures on this blog. You might therefore wonder why I trust this one not to fail. The simple answer is that I don't. It's more of a question of which direction it would fail.
I am definitely in the minority. As seen in the chart, we're currently well below trend. I do not believe this economy is strong enough to support a sustained climb back up.
This chart predicts that the 10-year moving average of the 10-year treasury yield will be 3.0% in August of 2018. That's roughly 5 years away. I shall take the under.
It's just an opinion of course.
Opinion has caused more trouble on this little earth than plagues or earthquakes. - Voltaire
My opinion isn't going to do much in the grand scheme of things. If I am wrong, no big deal. I'm in the minority here. Who cares what I think? It is the opinion of the masses, those in ivory towers, and those in power that would concern Voltaire most more than likely.
September 3, 2013
5 ways to prepare for higher interest rates
If you don’t like the idea of buying individual bonds but don’t want to get burned by raising rates, short-term bond funds are an alternative.
Yes, short-term bond funds! It's worked out great so far. Just get in there and patiently wait for the end of ZIRP. It is bound to happen any day now!
Yahoo: SHY Performance
3-Year Total Return (Mkt): 0.56%
This is not investment advice.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: 10-Year Treasury Yield
Advertisement
You have just read the article News for today's that category by title Some Perspective on the "Rising" Interest Rate Environment. You can bookmark this page with a URL https://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2013/09/some-perspective-on-interest-rate.html. Thank you!
Posted by: Tukiyooo
Some Perspective on the "Rising" Interest Rate Environment Updated at :
4:44 PM
Friday, September 13, 2013
Post a Comment