![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGwOiZDejdPrFT8p5MCIbDtN5vDJIkDsjKUwBXra60KwiaYdKY13OXYItNyAF6-JPf1lQFivquS5uXYIBQME0tfLB1QWIdYirsaG8ZzpNEbLLg1Te7aNDzGKLEV9OVb4drclxZEItGSGQ/s320/5+Year+S&P+500+Growth+-+Long-Term.jpg)
Click to enlarge.
Each data point in the chart is constructed by creating an exponential trend over the previous 5 years of data and then using that trend to determine an annualized growth rate over the 5 year period. That's a lot of exponential curve fitting (and smoothing).
For those interested, this is what the cell contents are for that last data point.
=(GROWTH(B634:B694,A634:A694,A694,TRUE)/GROWTH(B634:B694,A634:A694,A634,TRUE))^0.2-1
Needless to say, I'm thankful that I did not have to calculate it by hand. Good thing we live in a modern and financially innovative age!
Let's zoom in and add some modern and financially innovative commentary to go with that data.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioXkA_BjcVTrDJvPT9wrZl3ulfLh73J67_bsVVlsOg9bNTAjZ3VKZLoZ2W8fyBIQTkuzkSeW2KumnzOomhYwh4tBY7CM94DllBuwB0Y_ebBcomCBiMk6rfgLk1anPaETVvkk-JQ74nkNo/s320/5+Year+S&P+500+Growth+-+Short-Term.jpg)
Click to enlarge.
Don't worry. It is different this time! In no way am I trying to imply that Sure Thing #3 will end in failure at some point just because Sure Thing #1 and Sure Thing #2 did. Heavens no. Our economy was weakened far too much by the previous two failures for there to ever be a third.
Here's the best part. As seen in the chart, I had to rotate the text for Sure Thing #3 a bit extra. That means Sure Thing #3 is the steepest sure thing yet! To infinity and beyond! What an awesome story! What could possibly go wrong?
This is definitely not investment advice.
See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
Advertisement
You have just read the article News for today's that category by title A False Sense of Securities. You can bookmark this page with a URL https://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2013/12/a-false-sense-of-securities.html. Thank you!
Posted by: Tukiyooo
A False Sense of Securities Updated at :
1:33 PM
Thursday, December 26, 2013
Post a Comment