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It's not going to take long to find out whether or not Baylor is worthy of its No. 3 ranking in the AP Poll.


No. 3 Baylor (9-0) travels to face No. 11 Oklahoma State (9-1) on Saturday with the Big XII - and perhaps more - in the balance. The Bears haven't won in Stillwater since 1939.


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Recent history speaks more favorably for the Bears. Since Art Briles arrived in 2008, Baylor averages 37.6 points per game, sixth most in the FBS.


The problem is the Cowboys can play that game. Oklahoma State ranks second in the same stretch with 41.4 points per game, and it's safe to say Mike Gundy won't turn down an invitation to a shootout.


Both teams can score. Which team will get a stop or two?


Let's go inside the numbers to find out.


Series

Oklahoma State won the first meeting 60-0 in 1914 and holds an 18-13 advantage. The teams have met every year since Baylor joined the Big XII in 1996, and the Cowboys have a 15-2 record against the Bears since.


Marquee matchups

This marks just the third time both teams had winning records in November when they met. Oklahoma State did beat Baylor 24-14 in the 1983 Bluebonnet Bowl.


FIRST-AND-10: Win final two games on road and Heisman belongs to Manziel


Signature win: No. 19 Oklahoma State 55, No. 22 Baylor 28 (2010)

This is the only time both teams were ranked. Brandon Weeden out-dueled future Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III. The Cowboys built a 24-0 halftime lead, and Justin Blackmon finished with 173 receiving yards.


Signature win: Baylor 41, No. 24 Oklahoma State 34 (2012)

Briles picked up his first win against the Cowboys and broke a six-game losing streak in the series. The game is best remembered for Lache Seastrunk's 76-yard TD run in which he pulled his hamstring.


Art Briles on the road

The Bears haven't made a statement on the road yet. Baylor is 0-10 against ranked teams on the road under Briles, and that includes three losses in Stillwater.


Mike Gundy at home

Boone Pickens Stadium is a landmine - the Cowboys are 44-13 at home under Gundy. That record dips to just 8-10, however, against ranked teams.


Key matchup: Antwan Goodley vs. Justin Gilbert

This is as good as it gets. Goodley leads Baylor with 1,075 yards, 11 TDs and 22.4 yards per reception. Gilbert has six of Oklahoma State's Big XII-best 19 interceptions. Gilbert had two interceptions, including a 43-yard pick six, against Texas last week.


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Key matchup: Clint Chelf vs. Baylor defensive line

Chelf does an excellent job of getting the ball out on time; he's taken just three sacks. Baylor ranks eighth in the nation with 28 sacks, led by defensive ends Chris McAllister (5.5) and Jamal Palmer (4.0). Can the Bears get enough inside-out pressure against Chelf?


On the spot: Shock Linwood, RB, Baylor

Seastrunk's status is in doubt because of a groin injury, so Linwood needs to step up. Linwood totaled 52 carries for 369 yards the last two weeks against Oklahoma and Texas Tech. Expect another 20-plus carries against an Oklahoma State defense that allows just 3.5 yards per carry.


On the spot: Oklahoma State receivers

Blackmon and Dez Bryant torched Baylor in the past, but Oklahoma State's top two receivers - Josh Stewart and Tracy Moore - aren't that breed of down-field superstar. It's more of a committee effort - nine different Cowboys have a receiving TD. They'll still need a handful of vertical shots, however, to keep pace with the Bears.


Stat that matters: Yards per play

Baylor's all-around offensive statistics are ridiculous. The Bears average 8.3 yards per play. Oklahoma State checks in at 5.7 yards per play. The Cowboys and Bears were both at 6.8 yards per play last season. If the Bears average 8.3 yards or more in this game, it's over.


Stat that matters: Yards per point

This stat determines which teams make the most of their scoring opportunities. For example, Florida State is No. 1 at 10.0 yards per point. The Cowboys rank second (11.2) and the Bears are fifth (11.4). Both teams are going to gobble up yardage. Baylor can't afford to miss in plus territory.


Bottom line

We've made it this far without mentioning Bryce Petty. This is the Baylor quarterback's signature moment. He has the numbers, including a 24:1 TD:INT ratio and 10 rushing TDs. Can he end 74 years of losing in Stillwater? A win here buys Petty more Heisman hype and the Bears a little bit closer to a possible berth in the BCS Championship Game. The numbers lean slightly toward Oklahoma State, but Baylor finds a way in a thriller.


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Posted by: Tukiyooo Numbers that matter: Baylor at Oklahoma State Updated at : 9:35 AM
Saturday, November 23, 2013

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