Buffet of Meteorological Outcomes

As I was looking at the various modeling options out there for the storm, I hearkened back to the days when Andy Reid used to run the buffet lines at Nova Care -- you know, <a href="http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/pattisonave/Chip-Kelly-kills-Taco-Tuesday.html" target="_blank">Taco Tuesdays, Fast Food Friday</a>s, and thinking about the plethora of greasy options for Eagles dining at lunch.<br /><br />Computer modeling for a storm a week out is, in some weird, twisted way, similar to going to a buffet. A bunch of options on the table, a couple you will like...most pretty intolerable depending on one's perspective of dining. In some respects, you get to make the choice in what to accept as potential reality.<br /><br />Case in point -- the two stark differences between the Euro and GFS for next week's possible (can't stress that enough) storm system. Euro has five different outcomes in each of the last five runs. Some runs have been 60's and showery, others have shown snow (like below).  The GFS, likewise, has waffled from snow and mild as well depending on what model run is out there.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPf_KtNBIDA9a7smJI2S3ExOAcjRCihHnES2dlCJrmvXc27XzdGa93eCG5f6whedriKAbLb6au93iU1cj1bHZFNqz0gxFiS3ahpt9i4kXWOq3vMRSxub1MY7nxcaHVwG7z-6JNc-EwBeJf/s1600/110713-GFS.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPf_KtNBIDA9a7smJI2S3ExOAcjRCihHnES2dlCJrmvXc27XzdGa93eCG5f6whedriKAbLb6au93iU1cj1bHZFNqz0gxFiS3ahpt9i4kXWOq3vMRSxub1MY7nxcaHVwG7z-6JNc-EwBeJf/s400/110713-GFS.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />If you want to take things a step further -- the ensemble guidance of the GFS (below, click for the full show) shows a wide swath of options as well for the same storm -- anything from "no storm for you" to a wrapped up, bombed out snowstorm.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfHAMWu-BEdCnR7xjWhh-24qjSgMuwugT7MUmWnBZyJLzFHTR7FZ83J2Iina7bu7G_LH5alzyXsBtnT4qEMx_UkMEoy5YpOwRR42sXkoAb8OqF1K8n-B4eWSTNd9cf8toQLX_XsNt6P7qI/s1600/110713-GFS2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="318" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfHAMWu-BEdCnR7xjWhh-24qjSgMuwugT7MUmWnBZyJLzFHTR7FZ83J2Iina7bu7G_LH5alzyXsBtnT4qEMx_UkMEoy5YpOwRR42sXkoAb8OqF1K8n-B4eWSTNd9cf8toQLX_XsNt6P7qI/s400/110713-GFS2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />Needless to say, a buffet of options is on the table.<br /><br />This is a timing and detail type of storm that fine details will impact the final outcome.<br /><br />High pressure will be building across New England and across the Midwest, providing the cooler air needed to give the backside of the storm snow. A faster track, such as the GFS, will probably take a more northerly track as the high can't block the northward advance as it is moving in at the same time as the low (but the low wins the "speed" battle) and thus would be a rainy solution for the region. Note that "normally" the Euro model tends to be a bit slower with track and detail at seven plus days out and the GFS typically has a better handle on northern jet speed and detail.  A slower track, such as the Euro, could produce snow...especially if the mid level energy is stronger and the storm gets cut off, allowing a more bombed out scenario to take hold. That then comes down what the track is and requires a perfect balance with the building high.<br /><br />Like 90 percent of our winter storms around here, everything's got to come together just right.<br /><br />Needless to say, it's a week out. Don't worry about the details and specifics. As we said yesterday, modeling is showing a storm threat next week. It could snow (odds are low but it *could*) and it could rain. Worrying about the details is still silly this far out. We will see a lot of variation in modeling over the next several days but the details are nowhere near settled. Your hopes for snow, if you want it, should probably be tempered given how much waffling is going on between each model run and each model.

computer modeling EURO GFS model hype storms and rumors of storms Buffet of Meteorological Outcomes

As I was looking at the various modeling options out there for the storm, I hearkened back to the days when Andy Reid used to run the buffet...

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Next Shot Of Rain Looms For Thursday

It looks as if we will go into a rinse and repeat mode in the Delaware Valley regarding weather over the coming days. Cooler air looms today and tomorrow in response to the cold trough shot moving overhead. In fact, tomorrow could provide us the coldest day so far this autumn as many of us struggle to reach 50. However, the shot of chill is not sustained as high pressure works offshore and winds veer southwesterly ahead of the next system in the pike.<br /><br />This system is timing its arrival for Thursday with a round of rain as it moves on through. It could bring showers and drizzle as early as Wednesday evening as moisture increases ahead of the frontal boundary but the bulk of moisture and precipitation with the front move through Thursday.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPLh5W9jsVyBlsjupe009SZ1E1FtlKKdBdCzLkuB-EWM3QpisueSFhHA0vYyCzYtdlJbdZIT9HZOrT0s-nLQG6PTFCtn12ZqqlW1IW0uLaxAF6bqbiKZs_rHVltQGApKEDTlDNNCR23rR-/s1600/110313-GFS.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPLh5W9jsVyBlsjupe009SZ1E1FtlKKdBdCzLkuB-EWM3QpisueSFhHA0vYyCzYtdlJbdZIT9HZOrT0s-nLQG6PTFCtn12ZqqlW1IW0uLaxAF6bqbiKZs_rHVltQGApKEDTlDNNCR23rR-/s400/110313-GFS.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />At the surface, a band of rain and perhaps an embedded line of heavier rain could accompany the front. Unlike last Friday's squall line, wind energy with this system is not quite as robust. The strongest winds at 5000 feet up only get into the 50-60 mile per hour range, which is a bit lower than the 70 plus mile per hour winds we had with Friday's front.  While we can't rule out a "fall squall" setup on Thursday, it may not be as robust. We'll keep an eye on the trends with the low level jet ahead of the front to see how this materializes.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixZpTKWcUc0oesbEnKBuYGrAZvBu6a31m8sRLkrUlLjXkeAdM2dtHGqBMtOrrLzt8wv1wDLRP071j1rrODO0MAPu28IUTmQFosn_fgpUN11h3ha_zKVNxACzj-DlgvOfKttPSW7tQWeAuU/s1600/110313-GFS2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixZpTKWcUc0oesbEnKBuYGrAZvBu6a31m8sRLkrUlLjXkeAdM2dtHGqBMtOrrLzt8wv1wDLRP071j1rrODO0MAPu28IUTmQFosn_fgpUN11h3ha_zKVNxACzj-DlgvOfKttPSW7tQWeAuU/s400/110313-GFS2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />At minimum, we will have some dry weather over the next few days before we get a chance of rain in here.<br /><br />

computer model discussion GFS storms and rumors of storms Next Shot Of Rain Looms For Thursday

It looks as if we will go into a rinse and repeat mode in the Delaware Valley regarding weather over the coming days. Cooler air looms today...

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Friday Morning's Commute Looks Wet, Windy

There's a mixture of good news and not-so-good news for you this morning in the weather department.<br /><br />First, Halloween looks dry and mild for those who are looking to get out and get candy, or accompany the young ghost, goblin, or assorted costume character (please for the love of humanity, avoid going as Miley Cyrus). There could be a shower or two out towards Harrisburg or up towards Scranton but for those of us here, should be dry and mild.  Temperatures will likely be in the 60's tomorrow night for a good chunk of the evening with a mild southwesterly breeze. Not quite "shorts and t-shirt" weather but pretty nice for the end of October.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh818Pli052GL8Ci7Jnm1K_g9WDhQfjABXxz7YxVpM4eJ7OawMgSf3-SygBC-xWGfigZGtnzJoEFfNv19GuKLSRgPztlgLnfxVygMoPskyh4FQu_yoynWsMx5ebcI1H2Sxn8I39cC2o2Ppb/s1600/103013-AM1a.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh818Pli052GL8Ci7Jnm1K_g9WDhQfjABXxz7YxVpM4eJ7OawMgSf3-SygBC-xWGfigZGtnzJoEFfNv19GuKLSRgPztlgLnfxVygMoPskyh4FQu_yoynWsMx5ebcI1H2Sxn8I39cC2o2Ppb/s400/103013-AM1a.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>That's all brought to you by an approaching cold front that's going to move through on Friday with a pre-frontal band of rain and perhaps thunder. That mass of rain and isolated thunder moves in after Midnight tomorrow night, pushing through for the morning commute before departing. In addition to the rain will be an increasing breeze on Thursday night as winds at 5000 feet up will push above 70 miles per hour, higher north and west of the city, towards daybreak Friday. Those winds don't all transpose to the surface but in heavier showers we could see some 40-50 mile per hour gusts, perhaps a bit higher on ridge tops in the Poconos. It would not shock us to see a severe "thunderstorm" warning or two fire up tomorrow night and early Friday because of those winds.  Thunderstorm is in quotes because the line of rain and wind may not contain much, if any, thunder at all.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQmOmTVbhV32ht4g-F-WovA1UPCAFmtiEorU3iXbIUaA6jBtDRIY1o5ShWI9oRZ_hPBm40606RXoO6twSAt4A0zzaO1WytP8XGNsNiYGJmu8JT_x3ehw9HKnLTRLd3ME-O8F9LsYtTjiv6/s1600/103013-AM1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="267" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQmOmTVbhV32ht4g-F-WovA1UPCAFmtiEorU3iXbIUaA6jBtDRIY1o5ShWI9oRZ_hPBm40606RXoO6twSAt4A0zzaO1WytP8XGNsNiYGJmu8JT_x3ehw9HKnLTRLd3ME-O8F9LsYtTjiv6/s400/103013-AM1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />This frontal boundary and storm system will produce a higher risk of severe weather back across the Ohio Valley and Western Pennsylvania than locally as instability parameters will be a bit better to our west than locally, thanks in large part to timing. That said, there's enough wind energy with this storm system despite the timing to probably get some 40+ mile per hour wind gusts with the frontal squall as it moves through.<br /><br />Rainfall should average out to about a half an inch regionwide, a bit more north than south.<br /><br />Temperatures on Friday morning could be in the mid, perhaps upper, 60's across a large chunk of the region. This may help us pull off a second 70 degree day in a row to start November as tomorrow looks like we should get to 70 in the city.

fall squall GFS Halloween weather NAM Friday Morning's Commute Looks Wet, Windy

There's a mixture of good news and not-so-good news for you this morning in the weather department. First, Halloween looks dry and mild ...

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