IN A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEAR, CHILE FACES CHALLENGES FROM SOCIAL MOVEMENTS AT HOME, AND FROM BORDER DISPUTES ABROAD
THE YEAR AHEAD
2012 saw the largest student demonstrations in CHILEAN history, as well as a scandal in the police force and high-profile resignations in the government of President Sebastián Piñera. With presidential elections in the offing, 2013 promises to be another year of political and social upheaval in the narrow Pacific nation.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
CHILEANS will go to the polls in November 2013 to elect their next president. Two candidates lead from the right: former Defense Minister Andrés Allamand, and former Public Works Minister Laurence Golborne.
Though she has not yet declared whether she will seek the presidency, Socialist former president Michelle Bachelet is the clear front-runner from the left—and indeed, in the race as a whole. As of the New Year, 54 percent of poll respondents would choose Bachelet to be their next president.
If she decides to run, Bachelet—and any other presidential hopefuls—will have to officially declare candidacy by the end of March.
Since leaving the presidency in 2006, Bachelet has traveled the world building international goodwill as the first Undersecretary-General and Executive Director of UN Women, giving her a likely foreign policy advantage against her opponents should she decide to enter the race.
FOREIGN POLICY
In CHILEAN foreign policy, 2013 will bring closure on the border dispute with PERU, but may see a rise in tensions over boundaries between BOLIVIA and CHILE.
In December the International Court of Justice at The Hague heard arguments from PERU and CHILE on the disputed maritime borders between the two nations’ waters. PERU claims a larger share of the valuable coastal fishing waters, arguing that a 1950 pact with CHILE should be invalidated.
Background Information:
Read chapter: CHILES NEVER-ENDING TERRITORIAL CLAIMS at:
Read chapter: CLAIMS ON PATAGONIA at:
CHILE CLAIMS LAND FROM ARGENTINA
CHILEAN leaders have promised to respect the Hague court’s decision, but a loss would be a blow to national pride. CHILE has managed to keep claims from PERU and BOLIVIA for territorial redress at bay since the 1800s.
CONTROL OF FRESHWATER SUPPLIES: BOLIVIA’S LEVERAGE OVER CHILE?
Old tensions between BOLIVIA and CHILE over borders may flare up in 2013. BOLIVIA has long desired to reclaim lost access to the Pacific Ocean from CHILE. BOLIVIAN President Evo Morales may be planning to harness the power of water, specifically the freshwater flowing from BOLIVIA into CHILE in the Silala River. Most of the water in this river that originates in BOLIVIA is consumed in CHILE, and could be used as leverage against CHILE.
BOLIVIAN Foreign Minister David Choquehuanca told the press that his government’s ‘total disposition’ to engage in dialogue with CHILE.
ENERGY AND ECONOMY
In addition to being vulnerable to water scarcities, CHILE struggles to secure enough energy to fuel its growing OECD economy.
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| Santiago de Chile |
CHILE’S growth prospects also depend on CHINA, where demand for primary commodities has fueled a boom in CHILE and elsewhere in SOUTH AMERICA. If the CHINESE economy experiences the ‘hard landing’ some see beginning, the sharp drop in demand for CHILEAN copper would reduce GDP growth rates.
Several projects that would boost domestic energy production and, supporters argue, increase growth, have been delayed due to protest from social movements or failure to secure approval from the National Environmental Commission (Comisión Nacional del Medio Ambiente—CONAMA).
CONAMA issues environmental impact assessments (Sistema de Evaluación de Impacto Ambiental—SEIA) that determine whether new projects can begin. At the end of 2012, CONAMA approved only seven hydroelectric projects for 2013. The seven projects are all for small-scale hydroelectric plants, with a combined capacity of 86 MW.
Larger projects are still awaiting approval, and would undoubtedly provoke opposition from environmental activists. In 2012, planning for the massive Hydroaysén hydroelectric dams in Patagonia stalled after intense backlash and protests from activist groups.
SOCIAL MOVEMENTS
Activists had a big year in 2012, and the momentum of social movements promises to continue into 2013, driven by high-profile issues like education reform and presidential elections.
The 2013 budget includes record education spending. Student activists, however, say the measures Piñera’s government has taken do not go far enough, and they have promised to continue mobilizing in favor of less expensive higher education.
The violence that sometimes accompanied education protests in 2012 threatened to alienate some of CHILE’S middle classes. 2013 will be a test of how the student movement can continue its high-profile demonstrations while retaining support among the non-student population.
Another case of a violent minority threatening the success of a social movement is that of the Mapuche indigenous movement. The Mapuche community’s struggle for rights over traditional lands has been marred by a series of violent attacks on landowners.
And elderly landowning couple in AraucanÃa, SOUTHERN CHILE was killed in an arson attack on 4 January. President Piñera announced that he would apply the country’s strict and controversial anti-terror bill to the violence in the AraucanÃa region. Piñera told the press that ‘this fight is not with the Mapuche community, but with a criminal minority.’
If the violence in La AraucanÃa continues it will damage Piñera’s already-low approval ratings and attract further scrutiny from international critics of the government’s treatment of the Mapuche community.
EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED
As always in CHILE, nature may hold surprises in the year to come. At the end of December the Copahue volcano on the CHILE-ARGENTINA border started spewing ash. The nation has over 2,000 volcanoes and is also vulnerable to earthquakes and tsunamis. A recent report found that only 59 percent of the houses destroyed in the 2010 earthquake have been rebuilt.
By Amelia Josephson
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Wednesday, January 9, 2013
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