The Stock Market: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxaPzGftQlsAsh03u8ACsFoDhAIXiJXGYb7j8mG_NwX4NgNNOHZdK_cZHJl-TP_DasOfERbmCueX9ObcHV-e1N81OTZ92jMg_M0zW81_0C0F8cRJEm_8fLsWbgrXXtyaJp_gXruIoKcvo/s1600/What+Could+Possibly+Go+Wrong.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxaPzGftQlsAsh03u8ACsFoDhAIXiJXGYb7j8mG_NwX4NgNNOHZdK_cZHJl-TP_DasOfERbmCueX9ObcHV-e1N81OTZ92jMg_M0zW81_0C0F8cRJEm_8fLsWbgrXXtyaJp_gXruIoKcvo/s320/What+Could+Possibly+Go+Wrong.jpg" /></a><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Click to enlarge.</span><br /><br />The line in black shows real net corporate dividends.<br /><br />The line in blue shows the real trade deficit (same scale).<br /><br />The red line shows the exponential trend in real dividends from 1947:Q1 to 1987:Q1. Note the exponential trend failure (to the upside).<br /><br />Will real dividends stay permanently elevated? Will profit margins stay permanently elevated? Can we be assured that the worst is behind us? Can we expect future growth in real dividends to match the growth we've seen since the early 1990s? I wouldn't answer a resounding yes to any of those questions. Call me skeptical, to put it mildly. Instead, I would ask the following question.<br /><br /><div style="color: red;">Will we someday, using the power of hindsight, discover that our massive trade deficit was not the permanent free lunch that it was advertised to be?</div><br />Put another way, it really helped the corporate bottom line to transition from "Made in USA" to "Made in ____." <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Mission_Accomplished_speech">Mission accomplished.</a> Now what? Persistently high oil prices (financial meltdowns notwithstanding)? Persistently stagnant wage growth? Persistently high unemployment? Increased rate of US (and/or global) financial meltdowns? In and out of ZIRP from here on out (if ever out)? Even more <a href="http://youtu.be/Rkgx1C_S6ls">giant sucking sounds</a>?<br /><br /><b>February 13, 2014</b><br /><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/13/us-china-auto-sales-idUSBREA1C0DR20140213">China auto market growth slows sharply in January</a><br /><br /><div style="color: #666666;"><i>Lines of cars are pictured during a rush hour traffic jam on Guomao Bridge in Beijing July 11, 2013.</i></div><br /><div style="color: #666666;"><i>CAAM last month said the auto market would likely grow 8-10 percent in 2014, echoing views from industry experts and analysts that 2014 would be another strong year for China's auto market.</i></div><br />Other than corporate executives wishing to boost the value of their net worth and retire before the @#$% really hit(s) the fan, did anyone in power really think this through?<br /><br />The Chinese drive more. We drive less out of necessity (as seen in <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=s9I">annual vehicle miles traveled per capita</a> that fell apart during the Great Recession and has yet to make any sort of recovery). That's our plan for a more prosperous America? Seriously?<br /><br /><b>Source Data:</b><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=s9z">St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart</a>

The Stock Market: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Click to enlarge. The line in black shows real net corporate dividends. The line in blue shows the real trade deficit (same scale). The red ...

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