SYRIA

<br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">SYRIA’S BIO – CHEMICAL WARFARE THREAT? LEGITIMATE, OR A WELCOME EXCUSE FOR US INTERVENTION? </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS AND MONITORING</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> numerous times claimed that SYRIA’S Bio – Chemical warfare arsenal bears a real threat to both, the WEST and the internal struggle. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS AND MONITORING</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> wrote in March 2012 already two articles. For further details see: </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/syrian-missiles-will-pre-empt-any.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/syrian-missiles-will-pre-empt-any.html</a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/given-fact-syria-does-possess-chemical.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/given-fact-syria-does-possess-chemical.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">If indeed the entire SYRIAN conflict was instigated by foreign entities, as it seems increasingly likely, one has to seriously question these countries on their geo - strategic and geopolitical analytical abilities as well as inefficient intelligence gathering capabilities, otherwise they would have known the outcome of the current conflict in SYRIA. On the other hand, DEBKAfiles article shown below, on Chemical warfare can also be viewed as a propaganda tool to justify foreign intervention in the conflict. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">See: <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/iran.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/iran.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">  </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">CHEMICAL WARFARE FEARED RAISING ITS HEAD IN THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Via DEBKA<i>file</i></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><i> </i> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Tehran pumped out a report Early Sunday June 10 accusing SYRIAN rebels of arming themselves with chemical weapons originating in LIBYA and acquiring training in their use from an unknown source in their use. The report sent shudders of alarm through WESTERN capitals and ISRAEL and fears that Tehran and Damascus were preparing the ground for the Assad regime to resort to chemical warfare to finally crush its foes.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">TALKING OPENLY ABOUT BIO – CHEMICAL WARFARE</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">IRAN claimed, “Any report released on the SYRIAN Army’s alleged use of the chemical weapons is meant to pave the ground for the terrorists to use these weapons against the people and accuse the SYRIAN army and government of that crime.”<br />Three days earlier, on June 7, SYRIAN rebel sources charged that the SYRIAN air force planes had dropped poisonous substances over Deraa, Hama and Idlib which knocked people unconscious. This later proved unfounded.<br />Western military sources watching SYRIA’S flashpoint areas warn that the fact that both sides of the conflict are now talking openly about chemical warfare attests to their seriously getting ready for this deadly escalation - and the ultimate game-changer. If they indeed go through with it, say sources Washington, EUROPEAN capitals, Riyadh and Jerusalem, US President Barack Obama cannot possibly stick to his refusal to take military steps in SYRIA and will have to step in with limited force to stop the escalating horror.<br />In that case, the US would almost certainly be joined by SAUDI ARABIA, QATAR and possibly other Arab nations.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">COMMENT BY GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS AND MONITORING</span></b><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">: Are those alleged Bio – Chemical threats “leaked” to the media the base for justifying the launch of a military intervention in Syria by US, SAUDI ARABIAN and QATAR coalition forces? A goal the three of them have pursued since they allegedly instigated the turmoil in SYRIA in the first place? </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Official spokesmen in the West, Moscow and the UN are still warning that SYRIA is on the verge of civil war, refusing to admit that a sectarian war which they failed to avert is already fully fledged – certainly between Sunni Muslims and Assad’s Allawite minority.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><span style="color: blue;"></span></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">COMMENT BY GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS AND MONITORING: </span></b><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">This is not a conflict between SUNNI and ALLAWITES but SUNNI versus SHIITES. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">CLASH OF FAITHS</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The Christians are also involved because some members of that community occupy high-ranking positions in the military command. Defense minister Dawoud Rajiha, who manages government action against the revolt, is a Christian.<br />The conflict is no longer clear-cut between the SYRIAN army and the various armed rebel groups. The al Houla massacre in the last week of May was a tragic turning-point:  Armed groups of Alawites and Sunnis living in the same neighborhoods are now turning on each other. Their battles go largely unreported. One of the most disastrous episodes of this kind erupted last week between Sunni and Alawite neighbors in Latakia. Many parts of southern, eastern and northern SYRIA had consequently spiraled out of control of military and security forces. WESTERN and ISRAELI military sources report that regional commanders and the general staff in Damascus have lost track of the violence plaguing those regions and more massacres on the scale of al-Houla and Al Qubeir are feared.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The rebel SYRIAN National Council’s choice of a KURDISH exile Abdel Basset Sayda Saturday as its new head is a bad omen: More than a step toward resolving the differences among the various factions and unifying ranks, the appointment brings the KURDISH community, one-fifth of the SYRIAN population, squarely into the revolt. SYRIAN KURDS have stayed out of it until now.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">COMMENT BY GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS AND MONITORING: </span></b><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">If indeed the KURDS are now also involved, it will be interesting to see how TURKEY will react to the new situation. TURKEY so far has been playing a double edged sword policy regarding SYRIA and showcased serious concerns on SYRIA’S KURDISH stance.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">A major concern for Jerusalem was sparked by recent comments in IRANIAN Revolutionary Guards publications. Friday and Saturday, the official IRGC mouthpiece <i>Mashregh </i>quoted a warning by Brig. Gen. Massoud Jazaeri that in the event of any WESTERN or ARAB force interfering in SYRIA, Assad’s allies in the resistance “would ensure that aggressors do not survive the conflict. The Zionist regime and the interests of the enemies of SYRIA are all within range of resistance fire.”<br />Saturday night, RUSSIAN Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov underlined Moscow’s hard line on SYRIA: “Moscow would support the departure of President Bashar al-Assad, but only if SYRIANS agreed to it,” he stressed. He ruled out outside force and sanctions against the regime and proposed another international conference.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br />Moscow has now ranged itself solidly behind Assad and the pyramid that keeps him in power – family, Alawites and the top military echelon. Even if the ruler was himself ousted in a coup by his own army, the general who seized power could count on RUSSIAN backing.<br />SYRIA endured another day of slaughter Saturday with the numbers of dead in double digits and the Red Cross warning that more than a million Syrians are in dire need of aid. The SYRIAN tragedy is more intractable than ever.</span></span></div>

SYRIA

SYRIA’S BIO – CHEMICAL WARFARE THREAT? LEGITIMATE, OR A WELCOME EXCUSE FOR US INTERVENTION?  GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS AND MONITORING numerous ...

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Elearning and global competency #flatclass #globaled 06/11/2012

<ul class="diigo-linkroll"> <li> <p class="diigo-link"> <a href="http://www.tes.co.uk/article.aspx?storyCode=6243992">In the news - Euro 2012 - Controversy and Protest - Resources - TES</a> </p> <p class="diigo-description">For those using Euro 2012 (as I blogged about yesterday) as a teachable event for global competency and literacy or current events, here is some more information about the controversy surrounding Euro 2012. Human rights/ racism -- these are all things that are being discussed around this tournament that sweeps Europe like "March Madness" sweeps the USA in March. Here are some lesson plans and information about this.</p> <p class="diigo-tags"> <span>tags:</span> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/education">education</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/flatclass">flatclass</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/sports">sports</a></p> </li> </ul><p class="diigo-ps">Posted from <a href='http://www.diigo.com'>Diigo</a>. The rest of my favorite links are <a href='http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher'>here</a>.</p>

Elearning and global competency #flatclass #globaled 06/11/2012

In the news - Euro 2012 - Controversy and Protest - Resources - TES For those using Euro 2012 (as I ...

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SA teachers–would you like to join SchoolNet’s free short online Google Docs course?

<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><i>Submitted by Fiona Beal</i><br />Google Docs is a very versatile suite that can be used on a PC, Mac, tablet or iPad. This month SchoolNetSA is offering a free short online course introducing Google Docs.<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8U-d7Ldq8lLLtcTbNCf3U115DTHZCQYoQr2qfrwxSjfffHmUY0lzWFA4UyYZ5YNc4T-j2GX0xYJh1kpwB5dg33EOrhHld_60zQ061gg2Q7h2W7xNy3LfMcThOyVhHK0wYD022lbXP1Zs/s1600-h/image%25255B4%25255D.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="image" border="0" height="103" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOuw_vzYDWycDkeyqrjNewOlcFcDRhVfh_bBJ6qPduvfPKriz6XjEQ8XMraUhWcLhZJHN7UMl9N_-pv32YJVlUOxWMLHLUkqIQrxrKKEs42wAmg_Ck_JlmkityFQaITi1Ly_PpOENIXrQ/?imgmax=800" style="background-image: none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color; border-style: none; border-width: 0px; display: inline; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;" title="image" width="240" /></a></div><br /><br />The suggested outline is: <br /><u>Week 1</u> (beginning 8 June) <br /><i>Getting started with Google Docs </i><br /><br /><u>Week 2</u> (beginning 11 June): <br />a)<i> Google forms are incredible </i><br />b) <i>Create and share a presentation using Google Docs </i><br /><br /><u>Week 3</u> (beginning 18 June): <br /><i>Tips and tricks with Google Docs</i> <br /><br />This course is supported by 'how to' webinars and offers a Certificate of Participation from SchoolNet if certain requirements are met. Please fill in the form below if you would like to join us. You will then be sent an email directing you to the course platform. <br /><br /><a href="https://docs.google.com/a/schoolnet.org.za/spreadsheet/viewform?formkey=dHA5UXBubVRtVEd6bVFFalNYOHktUmc6MQ#gid=0">Sign up for the Google Docs course here</a><br /><br />The course is arranged in such a way that you can easily catch up if you start late. If you are not a premium member of SchoolNet (a free membership to South African educators), please also go to <a href="http://edn.schoolnet.org.za/">http://edn.schoolnet.org.za/</a> and register as a SchoolNet premium member which will put you on our mailing list and keep you updated on all our various technology-integration opportunities. Simply follow the prompts and choose 'other' if there are any queries. </div>

Free online courses SA teachers–would you like to join SchoolNet’s free short online Google Docs course?

Submitted by Fiona Beal Google Docs is a very versatile suite that can be used on a PC, Mac, tablet or iPad. This month SchoolNetSA is offe...

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Teach This! Teaching with lesson plans and ideas that rock #teaching 06/10/2012

<ul class="diigo-linkroll"> <li> <p class="diigo-link"> <a href="http://www.tes.co.uk/taxonomySearchResults.aspx?mode=browse¶metrics=52108,52188,52192">Whole School: Parents and community: Supporting learning at home teaching resources - TES</a> </p> <p class="diigo-description">A list of ideas and information to send home to parents to help their children learn over the summer. There are some gems here that you can use with parents to send them over the summer. Some of them might be great to include in the summer letter many teachers send parents for the children they'll be teaching next year.</p> <p class="diigo-tags"> <span>tags:</span> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/education">education</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/teaching">teaching</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/parenting">parenting</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/homeschooling">homeschooling</a></p> </li> <li> <p class="diigo-link"> <a href="http://www.tes.co.uk/teaching-resource/100-Activities-and-Ideas-for-parents-and-kids-to-do-over-the-summer-3007101/">100 Activities and Ideas for parents and kids to do over the summer - Resources - TES</a> </p> <p class="diigo-description">This is a flyer that you can download and tweak to send home with kids for the summer including 100 things that parents and children can do together to keep children's minds active and learning. </p> <p class="diigo-tags"> <span>tags:</span> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/education">education</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/news">news</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/teaching">teaching</a></p> </li> </ul><p class="diigo-ps">Posted from <a href='http://www.diigo.com'>Diigo</a>. The rest of my favorite links are <a href='http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher'>here</a>.</p>

Teach This! Teaching with lesson plans and ideas that rock #teaching 06/10/2012

Whole School: Parents and community: Supporting learning at home teaching resources - TES A list of ...

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IRAN

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font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} </style><![endif]--> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-outline-level: 1;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVHKoGSgEhRU47N0jatiI3wNMZw_51gwS4uaBsLVbqNMuuuklGtpalxpbuCrcESQ0DPNmo21SlomsXpKpQq4TYc3QymVszCKFc34pJahbdtb69D0hpyKqWNk7Ljt34_OLOj3Yieao4x1L4/s1600/IRAN+NUCLEAR.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVHKoGSgEhRU47N0jatiI3wNMZw_51gwS4uaBsLVbqNMuuuklGtpalxpbuCrcESQ0DPNmo21SlomsXpKpQq4TYc3QymVszCKFc34pJahbdtb69D0hpyKqWNk7Ljt34_OLOj3Yieao4x1L4/s320/IRAN+NUCLEAR.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><b><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 16pt;">IRANS ATOMPROGRAMM:SÄBELRASSELN SEIT 1979</span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Via Der Standard von Stefan Binder</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-left: .5in; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><b><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Ein Blick ins Archiv zeigt: Die Warnungen vor den atomaren Bestrebungen des Iran sind so alt wie das Atomprogramm selbst</span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">"Der Iran gibt sich gar keine Mühe, seine atomaren Ambitionen zu verbergen. Einer der führenden Politiker in Teheran, Ayatollah Mohadscherani, sagte jüngst: 'Die Moslems müssen ihre Zusammenarbeit fortsetzen und ihre eigene Atombombe produzieren, denn der Feind hat Nuklearwaffen.'"</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Die Zeilen entstammen einem STANDARD-Bericht vom Jänner - allerdings nicht 2012, sondern aus dem Jahr 1993.  Schon damals schränkte der Redakteur jedoch ein: "Fachleute glauben aber, daß der Iran noch gut zehn Jahre braucht, um dieses Ziel zu erreichen."</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Das iranische Nuklearprogramm ist dieser Tage wieder in aller Munde. Warnungen, die Islamische Republik könnte Nuklearwaffen bauen, sind jedoch so alt wie die Islamische Republik selbst. Manchmal sogar älter.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F70F15F73459137B93C0A81788D85F418785F9" target="_blank"><span lang="DE-AT" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT;">"Nuklearer Iran?"</span></a></span><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">, fragt die "</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/" target="_blank"><span lang="DE-AT" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT;">New York Times</span></a></span><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">" bereits 1975, als in Persien noch Shah Reza Pahlavi regiert. Eine Frage, die der Shah - damals Verbündeter des Westens - </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F70A15FA3559147A93C7AB178DD85F408785F9" target="_blank"><span lang="DE-AT" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT;">vehement verneint</span></a></span><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Doch die Berichte über die Atom-Ambitionen sorgen für Unruhe in den Medien, der Sturz des Shahs und die Einführung der Islamischen Republik verschrecken den Westen. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F50616F9355C12728DDDA80894D0405B898BF1D3" target="_blank"><span lang="DE-AT" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT;">Deutschland kündigt Verträge auf</span></a></span><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">, die den Bau von zwei Nuklearreaktoren vorsehen. Nach der Geiselnahme von amerikanischen Botschaftsmitarbeitern schließt sich auch </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F20617FF3E5C12728DDDAB0A94DA415B898BF1D3" target="_blank"><span lang="DE-AT" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT;">Frankreich Sanktionen des Westens an</span></a></span><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">. Trotz des gewaltsamen Sturzes, der US-Botschaftserstürmung und der Einführung der Islamischen Republik gibt es verglichen mit späteren Jahrzehnten in den Medien wenige Warnungen vor Nuklear-Ambitionen des Iran. Stattdessen beschäftigt der Krieg mit dem Irak das Regime in Teheran und die Medien.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">90er Jahre - Iran als "größte Bedrohung" für Israel</span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Das ändert sich in den 90er Jahren. Die </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1991/10/31/world/report-says-iran-seeks-atomic-arms.html" target="_blank"><span lang="DE-AT" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT;">"New York Times" berichtet</span></a></span><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> nach der Fertigstellung eines Berichts der Internationalen Atomenergiebehörde (IAEO) im Oktober 1991, dass einige Mitglieder des iranischen Regimes die "Absicht haben, Nuklearwaffen zu entwickeln". Besonders China, das Wissenschaftler in den Iran geschickt hat, um iranische Ingenieure auszubilden, macht amerikanischen Regierungsvertretern Sorgen.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">"Atommacht Iran?", fragt DER STANDARD am 28. Februar 1992. "Mit dem Zerfall der Sowjetunion hat der Iran eine diplomatische Offensive zu seinen neuen islamischen Nachbarstaaten begonnen, die furchtsame Geister bereits von einer neuen Großmacht im Nahen Osten träumen läßt. Das Schreckgespenst eines Mullah-Regimes entsteht, das mit Hilfe sowjetischer Technologie bald über Atomwaffen verfügt." Der damalige CIA-Direktor und spätere Verteidigungsminister Robert Gates nennt das iranische Atomprogramm vor einem Kongressausschuss ein "ernstes Problem", DER STANDARD berichtet jedoch im August 1992, dass laut einer CIA-Untersuchung der "Iran bis jetzt noch sicher keine Einrichtungen zur Produktion von Atomwaffen" besitzt.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Für Israel, das in den 80er Jahren noch den Irak als großes Problem ansah und den Nuklearreaktor in Osirak angriff, stellt die Islamische Republik zu diesem Zeitpunkt bereits den "Feind Nummer eins" dar, wie der ehemalige Mossad-Agent Joseph Alpher der </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1992/11/08/weekinreview/the-world-israel-focuses-on-the-threat-beyond-the-arabs-in-iran.html?pagewanted=print&src=pm" target="_blank"><span lang="DE-AT" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT;">"New York Times"</span></a></span><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> sagt.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1995 - Eskalation der Warnungen</span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1995 ist die Besorgnis über Russlands Lieferungen atomarer Technologie in den Iran das dominierende Thema. Die USA äußern Befürchtungen, dass die iranischen Atomanlangen dem Land ermöglichen würden, Uran anzureichern und Atombomben herzustellen. Der damalige russische Präsident Boris Jelzin beruhigt: "Im Iran wird nur ein Atomkraftwerk mit Leichtwasserreaktoren zur friedlichen Nutzung gebaut." Es werde nicht zur Lieferung einer Gaszentrifuge und damit zusammenhängender Anlagen kommen.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">US-Präsident Clinton zeigt sich über die Lösung zufrieden - öffentlich. Denn hinter den Kulissen wächst die Besorgnis. In einem </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1995/01/05/world/iran-may-be-able-build-atomic-bomb-5-years-us-israeli-officials-fear.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm" target="_blank"><span lang="DE-AT" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT;">"New York Times"-Artikel aus dem Jahr 1995</span></a></span><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> warnen Vertreter der amerikanischen und israelischen Regierung davor, dass der Iran näher an der Herstellung von Nuklearwaffen ist, "als man bisher geglaubt hat". Der Iran werde in weniger als zehn Jahren Nuklearwaffen besitzen. Israelische Vertreter warnen, dass man einen Angriff in Betracht ziehen müsse, falls das Atomprogramm nicht gestoppt werde.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Als der Iran versucht, an Material und Technologie für die Herstellung von Mittel- und Langstreckenraketen zu gelangen, vervielfachen sich Artikel über das iranische Waffen- und Atomprogramm. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1998/04/25/world/iran-nearly-got-a-missile-alloy-from-russians.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm" target="_blank"><span lang="DE-AT" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT;">1998 berichtet die "New York Times" erstmals</span></a></span><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> über die Herstellung der Shahab-3-Langstreckenrakete, die eine Reichweite von 800 Meilen (rund 1.300 Kilometer) haben sollen. Vor allem die russischen Materiallieferungen beunruhigen die Amerikaner: Unter anderem stoppen auch die österreichische Behörden eine Lieferung von Material, das zur Herstellung von Gefechtsköpfen verwendet werden kann. In einem </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/bm-threat.htm" target="_blank"><span lang="DE-AT" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT;">Bericht an den US-Kongress 1998</span></a></span><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> warnt der ehemalige Verteidigungsminister Donald Rumsfeld, dass der Iran Technologie und Material für eine Interkontinentalrakete bauen könnte, die fünf Jahre nach Erwerb einsatzfähig wäre und die USA bedrohen könnte.</span></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="mso-cellspacing: 1.5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 0in; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 100.0%;"> <tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"> <td style="padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in; width: 50.0%;" width="50%"><br /></td> <td style="padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in; width: 50.0%;" width="50%"><br /></td> </tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Einzelnachweise</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F70A15FA3559147A93C7AB178DD85F408785F9" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">"Iran Says She Has No Intention To Develop Nuclear Weapons" - The New York Times, 25. Juni 1974</span></a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F70F15F73459137B93C0A81788D85F418785F9" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">"Nuclear Iran?" - The New York Times, 12. März 1975</span></a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F50616F9355C12728DDDA80894D0405B898BF1D3" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">"Bonn Concern Ends Iran Nuclear Pact" - The New York Times, 1. August 1979</span></a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F20617FF3E5C12728DDDAB0A94DA415B898BF1D3" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">"Iran Freeze Is Upheld In France; Freeze on Iran Nuclear Stake" - The New York Times, 22. Dezember 1979</span></a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">90er Jahre</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1991/10/31/world/report-says-iran-seeks-atomic-arms.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">"Report Says Iran Seeks Atomic Arms" - The New York Times, 31. Oktober 1991 </span></a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1992/11/08/weekinreview/the-world-israel-focuses-on-the-threat-beyond-the-arabs-in-iran.html?pagewanted=print&src=pm" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">"Israel Focuses on the Threat Beyond the Arabs in Iran" - The New York Times, 8. November 1992</span></a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1995 - Eskalation und Warnungen</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1995/01/05/world/iran-may-be-able-build-atomic-bomb-5-years-us-israeli-officials-fear.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">"Iran May Be Able to Build an Atomic Bomb in 5 Years, U.S. and Israeli Officials Fear" - The New York Times, 5. Jänner 1995</span></a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1998/04/25/world/iran-nearly-got-a-missile-alloy-from-russians.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">"Iran Nearly Got A Missile Alloy From Russians" - The New York Times, 25. April 1998</span></a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/bm-threat.htm" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">"Executive Summary of the Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat To The United States", 15. Juli 1998</span></a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="https://www.cia.gov/news-information/speeches-testimony/2000/walpole_missile_092200.htm" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">"Iranian Ballistic Missile, WMD Threat to the US" - cia.gov, 21. </span><span lang="DE-AT" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT;">September 2000</span></a></span><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2002 - Die Achse des Bösen</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://derstandard.at/1862296" target="_self"><span lang="DE-AT" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT;">Powell: Iran baut "ohne Zweifel" an Atomwaffen - derStandard.at, 23. </span><span style="color: blue;">November 2004</span></a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/13/international/middleeast/13nukes.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">Relying on Computer, U.S. Seeks to Prove Iran's Nuclear Aims - The New York Times, 13. November 2005</span></a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/international/20051113iran.pdf" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">Iran's Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities: Cycle A Pattern of Peaceful Intent? - Powerpoint-Präsentation, als PDF auf nytimes.com zum Download</span></a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2006 - Zweifel</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2006/04/17/060417fa_fact#ixzz1wp12OmDF" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">"The Iran Plans" - The New Yorker, 17. </span><span lang="DE-AT" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT;">April 2006</span></a></span><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2006/07/10/060710fa_fact#ixzz1wp3irsdD" target="_blank"><span lang="DE-AT" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT;">"Last Stand" - The New Yorker, 10. Juli 2006  <br /></span></a></span><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,440633,00.html" target="_blank"><span lang="DE-AT" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT;">"Iran will Touristen in Atomanlagen lassen" - Spiegel Online, 4. Oktober 2006</span></a><a href="http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2006/07/10/060710fa_fact#ixzz1wp3irsdD" target="_blank"><span lang="DE-AT" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT;"><br /></span></a></span><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2009 - Obama und Verhandlungen</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.fas.org/irp/congress/2009_rpt/iran.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">"Iran: Where We Are Today" - A Report To The Committee On Foreign Relations United States Senate, 4. </span><span lang="DE-AT" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT;">Mai 2009</span></a></span><span lang="DE-AT" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://derstandard.at/1259281945711/Clinton-Politik-der-ausgestreckten-Hand-bisher-ein-Fehlschlag" target="_blank"><span lang="DE-AT" style="color: blue; mso-ansi-language: DE-AT;">Clinton: Politik der ausgestreckten Hand bisher "ein Fehlschlag" - derStandard.at, 15. </span><span style="color: blue;">Dezember 2009</span></a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div>

IRAN

IRANS ATOMPROGRAMM:SÄBELRASSELN SEIT 1979 Via Der Standard von Stefan Binder Ein Blick ins Archiv zeigt: Die Warnungen vor den atomaren Bes...

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Elearning and global competency #flatclass #globaled 06/10/2012

<ul class="diigo-linkroll"> <li> <p class="diigo-link"> <a href="http://www.engagingeducators.com/blog/2012/06/08/the-long-awaited-engaging-ed-iste-2012-schedule/">The Long Awaited Engaging Ed ISTE 2012 Schedule | Engaging Educators</a> </p> <p class="diigo-description">#flatclass friends...Not going to #ISTE? Follow along from a distance during @coolcatteacher & @julielindsay's presos: http://t.co/aEHJYkjC</p> <p class="diigo-tags"> <span>tags:</span> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/flatclass">flatclass</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/ISTE">ISTE</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/twitter">twitter</a></p> </li> </ul><p class="diigo-ps">Posted from <a href='http://www.diigo.com'>Diigo</a>. The rest of my favorite links are <a href='http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher'>here</a>.</p>

Elearning and global competency #flatclass #globaled 06/10/2012

The Long Awaited Engaging Ed ISTE 2012 Schedule | Engaging Educators #flatclass friends...Not going ...

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SYRIA: “FEASTS AND RITES OF CONFUSION”

<br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2011/08/food-for-thought.html"> </a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;"></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 18pt;"></span></b><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><span lang="ES-AR" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> </span></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-dnclcmacA6JlbvliQycqpIxAleDaiDECd5DdGAVvvjkNvR2CE5B39x3XUjaHdWY_0KE_Eki6AF8SththEsAa3FclkWqAFr-NZ6se_a8DNzByfi7Vs69nP7NHEhLzyfj4q-rbUADldm51/s1600/images.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-dnclcmacA6JlbvliQycqpIxAleDaiDECd5DdGAVvvjkNvR2CE5B39x3XUjaHdWY_0KE_Eki6AF8SththEsAa3FclkWqAFr-NZ6se_a8DNzByfi7Vs69nP7NHEhLzyfj4q-rbUADldm51/s320/images.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><span lang="ES-AR" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">  </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><span lang="ES-AR" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">SYRIA: AMERICA VS. ISRAEL?</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span lang="ES-AR" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 10pt;">Via fpif.org</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span lang="ES-AR" style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 10pt;">By Giorgio Cafiero</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The “Arab Spring” reached SYRIA in March 2011 when SYRIAN intellectuals, students, and union leaders appeared on the streets to demand greater transparency, political liberalization, and economic reforms. Although they did not participate in the initial series of demonstrations, SYRIAN ISLAMISTS joined the opposition after the regime responded with force to the public display of dissent. As the violence has escalated and taken over <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/28/world/meast/syria-diplomacy-deadlock/?hpt=wo_c1">9,000</a>lives, foreign powers have exploited the carnage to advance their geopolitical interests. The UNITED STATES and other powers have used the SYRIAN MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD as a proxy to topple the SYRIAN BA’ATHIST regime, which has governed for almost half a century. Washington’s two primary interests in SYRIA are to strengthen the GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL (GCC) vis-à-vis IRAN and to undermine RUSSIA’S power and influence in the MIDDLE EAST and MEDITERRANEAN. ISRAEL shares the U.S. interest in cutting off IRAN and RUSSIA’S reach into the LEVANT.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; line-height: 115%;">COMMENT BY GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS AND MONITORING</span></b><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">: </span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Cutting off IRAN and RUSSIA’S reach into the LEVANT applies for IRAN but not for RUSSIA. One should not forget that ISRAEL and RUSSIA, though not openly, do share common grounds, one being the fact that about 1 million RUSSIAN immigrants are living in ISRAEL thus being the</span><span style="color: blue;"> </span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">home to the world’s largest DIASPORA of RUSSIAN speakers outside of non-RUSSIAN-speaking countries. S</span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">econd, ISRAEL’S and RUSSIA’S economic and political ties have strengthening in recent past, thus it is hardly in the geopolitical and strategic interest of ISRAEL to “Cut off” RUSSIA’S reach into the LEVANT. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">For Background information see:</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://israelseen.com/2010/07/30/fact-sheet-russia-israel-relations/">http://israelseen.com/2010/07/30/fact-sheet-russia-israel-relations/</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://www.theisraelproject.org/site/apps/nlnet/content2.aspx?c=hsJPK0PIJpH&b=689705&ct=8545003">http://www.theisraelproject.org/site/apps/nlnet/content2.aspx?c=hsJPK0PIJpH&b=689705&ct=8545003</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">However, security considerations surrounding the unknown variables of a post-Assad SYRIA appear to have created a divide between U.S. and ISRAELI strategies, as the Netanyahu government has not followed Obama’s course on SYRIA. The ISRAELI concerns surrounding the collapse of SYRIA’S BA’ATHIST party are legitimate. Washington should also consider the security consequences of Assad’s ouster and avoid intervention in SYRIA.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; line-height: 115%;">For more background Analysis see: </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/01/strait-of-hormuz-and-syria.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/01/strait-of-hormuz-and-syria.html</a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2011/08/saudia-arabia-usa-turkey-versus-iran.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2011/08/saudia-arabia-usa-turkey-versus-iran.html</a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/syria-israel-iran-and-usa.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/syria-israel-iran-and-usa.html</a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/turkey-shiite-persians-versus-wahhabi.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/turkey-shiite-persians-versus-wahhabi.html</a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">U.S. INTENTIONS IN SYRIA</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Following SYRIA’S independence from FRENCH colonial rule, relations with the UNITED STATES have been largely defined by mistrust and conflict of interest. Beginning in 1956, in coordination with SAUDI ARABIA, the Eisenhower administration sought to covertly overthrow SYRIA’S left-wing nationalist government. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Background information: </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/4328056?uid=3737512&uid=2129&uid=2&uid=70&uid=4&sid=56245616993">http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/4328056?uid=3737512&uid=2129&uid=2&uid=70&uid=4&sid=56245616993</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2011/12/syria-cause-and-effect.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2011/12/syria-cause-and-effect.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">PROXY WAR BETWEEN THE USA, TURKEY AND THE GCC VERSUS SYRIA RUSSIA, CHINA AND IRAN</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">During the late 1970s and early 1980s, through JORDAN and ISRAEL, Washington backed the SYRIAN MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD’S armed uprising against the regime of Hafez Assad. Since 1982, the SYRIAN MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD has been in exile (primarily in SPAIN and SWITZERLAND). However, <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/syrias-muslim-brotherhood-is-gaining-influence-over-anti-assad-revolt/2012/05/12/gIQAtIoJLU_print.html">according to <i>The Washington Post</i></a>, “after three decades of persecution that virtually eradicated its presence, the SYRIAN MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD has resurrected itself to become the dominant group in the fragmented opposition movement pursuing a 14-month uprising against President Bashar al-Assad.” </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The U.S. alliance with an Islamist organization that espouses anti-WESTERN views may appear strange. However, this relationship is far from historically unprecedented. SYRIA is only one country where Washington supported Islamists to undermine nationalist and leftist forces. This alliance between the UNITED STATES and Islamist organizations was widespread throughout the Muslim world during the Cold War, as Washington deemed such forces — Zia ul-Haq in PAKISTAN, the Mujahideen of AFGHANISTAN, Abu Qurah in JORDAN, and the Muslim Brotherhood in EGYPT — to be reliable partners in the effort to undermine Communism and Arab nationalism. After the SOVIET UNION imploded in 1991, the UNITED STATES continued to foster alliances with Islamist groups to undermine governments that did not cooperate with the “New World Order.” During the 1990s, Washington covertly provided <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2002/03/11/020311fa_FACT">Iraqi Islamist parties</a>, including the Islamic Call (Al-Dawa) and the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in IRAQ, with millions of dollars to strengthen IRAQI opposition to Saddam Hussein. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Today, militant Islamist organizations such as Jundullah and <a href="http://www.rightweb.irc-online.org/profile/peoples_muhajedin_of_iran_meka">Mujahadeen e-Kalk</a> target IRAN. Both organizations, though <a href="http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/other/des/123085.htm">officially labeled</a>as “terrorist” organizations by the U.S. State Department, receive direct aid from Washington. In other words, SYRIA is not the only country where militant Islamists have received support from the UNITED STATES in their campaign to topple a regime opposed to U.S. hegemony. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">SHIA CRESCENT</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Present U.S. support for SYRIAN ISLAMISTS is part of a larger proxy war. The UNITED STATES, TURKEY, and the GCC are pushing for Assad’s demise, while RUSSIA, CHINA, IRAN, and Hezbollah seek to ensure Assad’s survival. U.S. interest in Assad’s downfall relates to its overall position vis-à-vis IRAN and RUSSIA, and by extension CHINA. Washington is skeptical about launching a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. However, by toppling IRAN’S closest regional ally, the UNITED STATES believes that it can undermine the Islamic Republic’s regional influence by striking a blow to the Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Hezbollah axis of power from IRAN to the MEDITERRANEAN, which JORDAN’S King Abdullah nervously <a href="http://alternativesjournal.net/volume8/number1/yousefi.pdf">identified</a>as the <b>“SHIA CRESCENT.”</b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Washington is assuming that the MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD, the most influential party within the Istanbul-based SYRIAN National Council, would end the IRAN-SYRIA alliance if it came to power. The organization’s deputy secretary, Mohammed Faruk Tayfur, <a href="http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/syrias-muslim-brotherhood-rejects-reported-iran-proposal">told</a><i>The Washington Times</i> on January 18, 2012 that the MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD rejects IRAN’S offers to mediate talks between the Assad regime and the opposition. The deputy secretary <a href="http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Apr-06/169434-syrias-muslim-brotherhood-iran-enemy-for-arming-regime.ashx#axzz1wq0KKPrc">defined</a>his ideology and vision for SYRIA by comparing TURKEY and IRAN’S versions of political Islam. “Islamic culturally and secular politically, [TURKEY] is the model for the Islamic movement … the IRANIAN, on the other hand, is the worst.” Then there’s the religious dimension. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The Assad regime is mainly composed of SYRIAN ALAWITES who adhere to a form of Islam derived from the SHIISM practiced in IRAN. Many orthodox SUNNI, who form the majority in SYRIA, do not consider ALAWITES to be legitimate Muslims. The Islamic Republic’s attempts to expand SHIISM throughout the ARAB WORLD, especially in SYRIA, have fostered intense hatred for IRAN within certain conservative SUNNI circles that would likely influence the SYRIAN MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD’S foreign policy vis-à-vis IRAN and Hezbollah. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">See: <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/01/syrias-destiny-sealed.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/01/syrias-destiny-sealed.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"></span></b><b><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; line-height: 115%;">COMMENT BY GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS AND MONITORING</span></b><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">: </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Although SHIISM and SUNNISM oppose each other on the geopolitical world stage; they also foster almost harmonic coexistence when it comes to recruit followers on foreign land in order to emerge as the dominant Islamic fraction, as is the case in BOSNIA. BOSNIAN moderate young Muslims are the target of both, WAHHABI (SUNNI - SAUDI ARABIA) and SHIIA IRANIAN fundamentalist groups. The ISLAMIC COMMUNITY (SUNNI) in the Muslim part of BOSNIA obtains funds from both, SAUDI ARABIA as well as IRAN. SUNNI clerics however show no objections to IRANIAN financed M</span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ADRASSA projects nor IRANIAN NGO</span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">’s using drug rehabilitation centre’s to recruit future fundamentalists, when at the same time WAHHABI (SAUDI ARABIA) recruiting efforts prospers in public schools and universities. This shows that as long as influence gaining on foreign soil is in process, the two religious fractions refrain from opposing each other until the objective has been accomplished. The minute that goal has been reached however, the “harmony” ends. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Background Information See: <a href="http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/madrassa">http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/madrassa</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The collapse of the Assad regime would almost inevitably decrease RUSSIAN power in the MIDDLE EAST and the MEDITERRANEAN. SYRIA has hosted RUSSIA’S naval base in Tartus for several decades and, since 1971, SYRIA has been Moscow’s closest ARAB ally. SYRIA is the largest ARAB purchaser of RUSSIAN weapons and is seen by Moscow as RUSSIA’S doorstep into the MIDDLE EAST and MEDITERRANEAN. The MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD has condemned RUSSIA and CHINA for providing Assad with weapons and diplomatic support throughout 2011 and 2012. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">On February 6, 2012 the SYRIAN MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD’S spokesman, Zouheir Salem, <a href="http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/29099-muslim-brotherhood-russia-china-iran-complicit-in-syria-killings">stated</a>that his organization “consider[s] RUSSIA, CHINA and IRAN as direct accomplices to the horrible massacre being carried out against our people.” By supplying the SYRIAN government with weapons and/or diplomatic backing, the three countries were "directly participating in the massacre of [SYRIA’S] defenseless people." <b>If the SYRIAN MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD removed SYRIA from Moscow and Tehran’s spheres of influence and aligned Damascus with Washington, Ankara, Riyadh, and Doha, the regional balance of power would shift in favor of the UNITED STATES.</b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmpG0TFq-So5k3YyoOdlU0i_UbpKr3_cnqv3zEvuKGiPCXwwe14FkaFnxcpqPF8vq5ooQh3piWuhNc5kGXcLsTzUIlhrrw9fMJIyfzK6UlxBVr30NEKtGJj5H1RXt_feP1EZ1Lqt6IvG_A/s1600/0,,15781496_401,00.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmpG0TFq-So5k3YyoOdlU0i_UbpKr3_cnqv3zEvuKGiPCXwwe14FkaFnxcpqPF8vq5ooQh3piWuhNc5kGXcLsTzUIlhrrw9fMJIyfzK6UlxBVr30NEKtGJj5H1RXt_feP1EZ1Lqt6IvG_A/s400/0,,15781496_401,00.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ISRAEL’S INTERESTS</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ISRAEL would welcome the decline of IRANIAN influence in the LEVANT, as IRAN is ISRAEL’S gravest threat, according to ISRAELI leaders. However, ISRAEL is not proactively seeking to weaken Iran by supporting Assad’s opposition. Alia Brahimi and George Joffe <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/02/201222613517197680.html">summarize</a>ISRAEL’S SYRIA dilemma:</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The one state that is directly implicated by the events in SYRIA, but which still has taken no public position is ISRAEL. <b>This is almost certainly because the ISRAELI Prime Minister would, on balance, prefer the Assad regime to continue; it is a known quantity and any new regime could severely destabilize the effective balance-of-power between two uneasy neighbors’</b> … ISRAEL will see the need to determine which poses more of a threat: the "ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST" SHIA state, or the "ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST" SUNNI groups who are sure to gain a foothold in SYRIA if Assad's regime suddenly caves in.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Whether or not ISRAEL would be in a stronger position with Assad or SUNNI ISLAMISTS in power is the center of debate amongst geopolitical analysts. Nonetheless, ISRAEL’S reluctance to support SYRIA’S opposition likely indicates its calculation that Assad’s survival is in ISRAEL’S interest, at least for now. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ISRAEL is not interested in the Assad regime maintaining power because of any friendship between the two states. SYRIA fought ISRAEL directly in October 1973 and via proxy in LEBANON between 1982 and 2000. Since 2000, SYRIA has continued to support HEZBOLLAH in LEBANON and HAMAS in Gaza. Without question, SYRIA remains the most, and arguably only, confrontational Arab state in the ARAB-ISRAELI conflict. However, ISRAEL understands that the Assad regime will not attempt to repossess the GOLAN HEIGHTS by military force and will meet with ISRAELI leaders to negotiate for peace, which <a href="http://ui04e.moit.tufts.edu/forum/archives/pdfs/33-1pdfs/Salem.pdf">occurred</a>in 1991, 1995-1996, 1999-2001, and 2008. How a post-Assad SYRIA would conduct foreign relations vis-à-vis ISRAEL-Palestine remains a gamble. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Regarding the MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD’S position on ISRAEL, <a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=0AwduwAACAAJ&dq=islamists+are+coming+robin+wright&hl=en&sa=X&ei=cfXET9zpG4T16AHV97iZCg&ved=0CDIQ6AEwAA">Thomas Pierret writes</a>, “[the SYRIAN MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD] seeks to ‘counter the Zionist project [the state of ISRAEL] in its different aspects’ — a position unlikely to change before an ISRAELI withdrawal from the GOLAN HEIGHTS. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"></span><b><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; line-height: 115%;">COMMENT BY GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS AND MONITORING</span></b><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">: </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"></span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Israel will in most likelihood never withdraw from the GOLAN HEIGHTS, not so much for its strategic advantage but because of access and control to ISRAEL’S water supply. In 1996 ISRAEL offered SYRIA to lease the GOLAN HEIGHTS, something SYRIA obviously rejected. Even if ISRAEL decides to return the GOLAN HEIGHTS to SYRIA, it is naive to think that the MUSLIM BROTHERHOODS stance on ISRAEL will ever change.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The group has also traditionally supported HAMAS.” Any SYRIAN regime (Islamist or secular, democratic or authoritarian) will lose legitimacy if it surrenders the GOLAN HEIGHTS to ISRAEL or fails to support the Palestinian struggle for statehood, as SYRIA has historically been the center of ARAB nationalism. Regardless of which sect, ethnicity, or ideological party governs in Damascus, SYRIA will seek to repossess the GOLAN HEIGHTS, defend its sovereignty, expand trade relations, maintain deterrence capacity over ISRAEL, and retain influence in LEBANON and the greater ARAB world. Therefore, ISRAEL is not convinced that Assad’s downfall could advance its geopolitical interests.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">EXPLAINING ISRAEL’S RELUCTANCE</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Even if the SYRIAN MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD would not take power in a post-Assad SYRIA, or even if it would not change SYRIAN foreign policy vis-à-vis ISRAEL-Palestine once empowered, ISRAEL may have national interests in Assad staying in power for four other reasons.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">First of all, Assad’s fall could lead to a disintegration of the SYRIAN state. Efraim Inbar, Director of its Begin-Sadat (BESA) Center for Strategic Studies, <a href="http://www.biu.ac.il/SOC/besa/MSPS95.pdf">believes</a> that “in the event that the SYRIAN regime collapses, SYRIA’S advanced arsenal, including chemical weapons, shore-to-ship missiles, air defense systems, and ballistic missiles of all types could end up in the hands of … radical elements.” The growing presence of AL-QAEDA in Mesopotamia (AQI) in SYRIA has been evident since the turmoil began in 2011, and the potential for AQI, or other militant groups like Hezbollah, to acquire such weapons could create new dilemmas for ISRAEL.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; line-height: 115%;">See: </span><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/syrian-missiles-will-pre-empt-any.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/syrian-missiles-will-pre-empt-any.html</a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/given-fact-syria-does-possess-chemical.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/given-fact-syria-does-possess-chemical.html</a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">DISTRUST IN THE WEST</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The collapse of the SYRIAN regime would also further isolate IRAN in the MIDDLE EAST and potentially provide it with an additional rationale to develop a nuclear weapon. As SYRIA has provided IRAN with the capacity to transform HEZBOLLAH into a force that the ISRAELI military cannot defeat, the loss of SYRIA may likely mean a weaker HEZBOLLAH, thus decreasing IRAN’S ability to deter ISRAEL from attacking its nuclear facilities. The Islamic Republic also took note of the NATO campaign against LIBYA’S Muammar Gaddafi. The lesson learned was that if a state disbands its WMD program with the intentions of improving ties with the West, it will be vulnerable to a foreign invasion. In sum, the LIBYAN case has arguably pushed the Islamic Republic toward developing a nuclear weapon — and its further isolation, which would come with Assad’s demise, may accelerate Tehran down that path. Such an outcome would deprive ISRAEL of its monopoly on nuclear weapons in the region.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The emergence of a regime in Damascus that bears more legitimacy than Assad’s, may also permit the SYRIAN military to channel more resources toward external threats (primarily ISRAEL). Currently, the SYRIAN military is focused on suppressing the domestic opposition and dealing with potential coup d’etats and armed uprisings. Clearly, the possibility of a future regime coming to power in Damascus with more legitimacy may be an overly optimistic prospect (from the SYRIAN perspective). However, the ISRAELIS would benefit from the SYRIAN military continuing to be bogged down in domestic affairs.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Finally, although the MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD has become increasingly moderate in the last 30 years, the other radical Islamist elements in the region, such as the SALAFISTS WAHHABI or even AL-QAEDA, could gain influence in SYRIA if a power vacuum forms following prolonged violence and widespread human rights violations. Although the significance of radical Islamist forces within SYRIA remains a hotly debated topic, a consensus has emerged that radical Islam has gained influence in SYRIA over the last decade. David W. Lesch, professor of Middle East History at Trinity University, <a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=JHIgHxh6juwC&printsec=frontcover&dq=lion+of+damascus&hl=en&sa=X&ei=7O7ET8jlIojp6gHEr7yZCg&ved=0CDQQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=lion%20of%20damascus&f=false">argues that</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">What would emerge after the dust settles down could very well be a polity that is Islamic extremist, one on the border with ISRAEL and one that could make common cause with like-minded elements in IRAQ and LEBANON. This is certainly not in anyone’s interest … Many in SYRIA, including Bashar, see the regime, more specifically the Baath party, as the last bastion of secularity against a seething rising tide of radical Islamic in SYRIA … <b>The more radical SALAFISTS WAHHABI in SYRIA are certainly a force to be reckoned with, more so than the MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD.</b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">See: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahhabism">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahhabism</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">In 2005 Lucy Ashton of <i>The Financial Times</i> <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2843502e-bdd7-11d9-87aa-00000e2511c8.html#axzz1wMggNsP4">reported</a>on a growing trend of radical Islam in SYRIA:</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Conservative Islam is a relatively recent phenomenon in Aleppo, known for centuries as a cosmopolitan trading city whose merchants "could sell a dead donkey skin to a king", according to a local proverb. Now, however, it is becoming a centre of Islamic radicalism, known more for its bombers than its carpet bazaar and textile weavers … On the streets of Aleppo, secular dress was ubiquitous only a decade ago. Now, more and more children recite Koranic verses in the streets on their way to madrassahs [Islamic schools], and women are tented completely in black.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">NO LESSONS LEARNED</span></b><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">, WASHINGTON’S DILEMMA</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The Obama administration should consider these potential security dilemmas that have led ISRAEL to avoid aiding Assad’s opponents. The SYRIAN military’s weapons falling into non-state actors’ hands, the increased probability that IRAN would develop a nuclear weapon to counter its growing isolation, and the possibility of radical SYRIAN Islamist with an anti-Western agenda rising to power would undermine U.S. interests in the MIDDLE EAST. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Two U.S. senators, John McCain (R-AZ) and Joseph Lieberman (I-CT), visited the SYRIAN-TURKISH border during April 2012 and <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18563_162-57412116/john-mccain-syrian-peace-plans-failure-is-proof-that-military-action-is-required/">demanded</a>that the UNITED STATES take military action against Assad to remove him from power. These were the same two voices that lobbied the Clinton and Bush administrations to topple Saddam Hussein’s regime. When the UNITED STATES did exactly as these senators advocated, countless unintended negative consequences ensued. Such outcomes could be expected if U.S. military action is taken against Assad. Obama would be wise to follow ISRAEL’S lead on SYRIA, and not the advice of McCain and Lieberman.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Instead of heeding the advice of these two hawkish senators, the Obama administration should pursue a more realist foreign policy vis-à-vis SYRIA that prioritizes stability. Unquestionably, the headaches that this regime has caused many U.S. administrations explain the political motivations behind Obama’s direct and indirect support for SYRIA’S Islamist opposition. <b>However, the lessons of blow back should be remembered, for the UNITED STATES armed radical forces on many occasions to advance larger geopolitical interests only to regret such alliances later.</b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Preventing the SYRIAN state from collapsing and protecting the region from the chaos that could result should be Washington’s top priority. This does not mean ignoring the human rights abuses of the Assad regime or the <a href="http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/03/20/syria-armed-opposition-groups-committing-abuses">armed Syrian opposition</a>. Rather, Washington should continue to work with regional actors such as TURKEY and IRAN along with RUSSIA and CHINA to find a political solution that holds all actors responsible for the lives lost and identifies a political solution that brings about peace, stability, and justice. The MIDDLE EAST doesn’t need another Iraq War or post-war crisis.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Background info</span></span></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2011/06/assad-dilemma.html%20">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2011/06/assad-dilemma.html </a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2011/06/syrian-regime-likely-to-survive-upraise.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2011/06/syrian-regime-likely-to-survive-upraise.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2011/06/nato-rules-out-military-intervention-in.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2011/06/nato-rules-out-military-intervention-in.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2011/08/food-for-thought.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2011/08/food-for-thought.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2011/11/syria-international-war-mongering-or.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2011/11/syria-international-war-mongering-or.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2011/11/food-for-thought.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2011/11/food-for-thought.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2011/12/as-i-see-it.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2011/12/as-i-see-it.html</a></span></span></div>

SYRIA: “FEASTS AND RITES OF CONFUSION”

  SYRIA: AMERICA VS. ISRAEL? Via fpif.org By Giorgio Cafiero The “Arab Spring” reached SYRIA in March 2011 when SYRIAN intellectuals, stud...

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