News for today's 2018

Program Manager, Information Technology (Linux | Windows Applications | Servers) (# 109118)

2:14 PM Anonymous 0

<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><div class="WordSection1"><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Position:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> Program Manager, Information Technology<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Location:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> Milpitas, CA<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Duration:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> Full time<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Job Description:<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">The Information Technology Program Manager is responsible in partnering with our Product Divisions, Global Operations and CTOs Office in a technical leadership group within   KLA-Tencor IT department responsible for providing solutions to technical and strategic challenges in product development so as to improve product time to market and operational excellence while creating a competitive advantage through Information Technology   innovations.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">We are seeking a dynamic, multi talented Information Technology Program Manager with superb technical skills responsible for driving technical solutions, increasing KLA-Tencor’s   competitive edge with innovative technological capabilities through Information Technology in a fast paced environment.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">             <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Responsibilities:<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">In this position you will interface with the global Design Engineering group and provide user support and technical solutions which will support meeting our strategic objectives   of bringing new products to market Better, Faster, Cheaper.  In addition you will be responsible for identifying pain points in the development cycle and coming up with solutions to address those needs.  Solutions can entail enhancements to current enterprise   wide applications, changes to business process, application substitution or new technologies which will yield the desired improvements. The user must have a strong working knowledge of common Information Technology tools that support the troubleshooting and   implementation of Linux, Windows applications and servers.  As well as IT infrastructure and Architecture tools.  You will also work with common industry application used by design engineers.  In this position you must be able to establish good rapport with   design engineering groups and managers, and provide continuous solutions and improvements to our business partners.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">             <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Preferred Qualifications:<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">This individual will manage projects as well as assist project teams with technical issues in the Initiation and Planning phases of our standard Project Management Methodology.   These activities include the definition of needs, benefits, and technical strategy; research & development within the project life-cycle; technical analysis and design; and support of operations staff in executing, testing and rolling-out the solutions. Participation   on projects is focused on smoothing the transition of projects from development staff to production staff by performing operations activities within the project life-cycle.  <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">1. Excellent troubleshooting knowledge on computer systems (Windows and Linux Environment)<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">2. Knowledge on Windows XP, Windows7, 2003/2008, AD, DFS, DNS<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">3. Knowledge on Virtualization technologies like VMware and Citrix Xen Server<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">4. TCP/IP Networking, VPN, imaging Technologies, WAN acceleration technologies<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">5. Experience of supporting users for day to day support (Desktop / Laptop) in large corporate environment<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">6. Knowledge on Linux and Unix Environment will be added advantage<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">7. Project Management skill<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">8. Should have excellent problem solving capability<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Basic Qualifications:<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Bachelor's Level Degree with at least 5 years of experience.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">OR<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Master's Level Degree with at least 4 years of experience.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">OR<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;">10+ years of work experience capable of supporting IT systems and Networks.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Kindly send your resume to <a href="mailto:raju.balaji@kla-tencor.com">raju.balaji@kla-tencor.com</a> </span><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;"></span></div></div></div>

Program Manager, Information Technology (Linux | Windows Applications | Servers) (# 109118)

Position: Program Manager, Information Technology Location: Milpitas, CA Duration: Full time Job Description: The Information Technology ...

Materials Director (Supply Chain | Supplier Agreements | Supplier Management) (#109135)

1:58 PM Anonymous 0

<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><div class="WordSection1"><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Position:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> Materials Director<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Location:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> Milpitas, CA<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Duration:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> Full time<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Job Description:<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">The Global Service Support Organization (GSS) team headquartered in Milpitas, CA is our service organization that consists of Service Sales and Marketing, Spares Supply Chain   management, Field Operations, Product Training, and Technical Support.  The GSS organization partners with our field teams and customers in all business sectors to maintain the high performance and productivity of our products through a flexible portfolio   of services. Our comprehensive services include: proactive management of tools to identify and improve performance; expertise in optics, image processing and motion control with worldwide service engineers, 24/7 technical support teams and knowledge management   systems; and an extensive parts network to ensure worldwide availability of parts.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Responsibilities:<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Oversees activities related to external supplier management for the service organization. Directs supply chain relationships and contracts for assigned commodities/suppliers   within the Service Supply Chain Management Group. Understand company business requirements, market dynamics and trends, supply base and supply base capabilities for given commodities. Lead complex supplier negotiations. Execute, manage and administer supplier   contracts, SOWs, SLAs, NDAs and any other required supplier agreements. Effectively manage supplier relationships at both the enterprise and division, function and project level. Lead, develop, create and deploy supplier scorecards. Lead, coordinate and manage   supplier business reviews. Create, implement and/or drives industry and company supply chain best practices. Ensure adherence to company supply chain management best practices, policies, procedures and external compliance requirements. Lead supply chain management   project/program management and complex problem resolution on new product, cost reduction, value engineering, quality, reliability, delivery, inventory and service initiatives. Can hold his/her own in a highly technical supply chain environment. Selects, develops,   and evaluates personnel to ensure the efficient operation of the function.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Oversees activities related to the external purchase and repair of materials for the service organization. Develops, implements, and maintains policies, procedures and material   control systems. Ensures materials are ordered and in stock to meet service requirements, while maintaining acceptable inventory levels. Develops material schedules and coordinates the efficient movement of materials with purchasing, production and engineering.   Reviews and plans requirements for purchasing/repairing materials at external suppliers. May prepare material requirement plans using enterprise resource planning systems. Selects, develops, and evaluates personnel to ensure the efficient operation of the   function. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Oversees activities related to urgent order escalation management for the service organization. Develops, implements, and maintains policies, procedures and material control   systems. Ensures urgent orders are fulfilled in an expedited manner, while maintaining part quality and acceptable inventory levels. Develops fulfillment schedules and coordinates the efficient movement of materials with purchasing, production and engineering.    Selects, develops, and evaluates personnel to ensure the efficient operation of the function.  <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">SCOPE:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> Participates with other senior managers to establish strategic plans and objectives. Develops   corporate and/or organizational policies and authorizes their implementation. Makes final decisions on administrative or operational matters and ensures operations’ effective achievement of objectives.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">JOB COMPLEXITY:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> Works on complex issues where analysis of situations or data requires an in-depth   knowledge of the company. Participates in corporate development of methods, techniques and evaluation criteria for projects, programs, and people. Ensures budgets and schedules meet corporate requirements. Interacts internally and externally with executive   level management requiring negotiation of extremely difficult matters to influence policy making bodies.  <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">DISCRETION:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> Erroneous decisions will have a serious impact on the overall success of functional,   division or company operations.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">INTERACTION:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> Regularly interacts with executives and/or major customers. Interactions frequently   involve special skills, such as negotiating with customers or management or attempting to influence senior level leaders regarding matters of significance to the organization.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">SUPERVISION:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> Directs and controls the activities of a broad functional area through several department   managers within the company. Has overall control of planning, staffing, budgeting, managing expense priorities, and recommending and implementing changes to methods.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Preferred Qualifications:<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Hard Skills:<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Experienced negotiator<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Ability to manage all aspects of KT’s supply chain, including:<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">  - Contract negotiation and administration<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">  - Supply/demand management<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">  - Supplier evaluation and selection<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">  - Purchasing<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">  - Inventory management<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">  - Shipping, receiving, logistics<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">  - Achieving cost reductions<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Working knowledge of SPC and how to apply it<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Ability to manage the supply chain in an upturn and downturn<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Ability to manage new product introductions as well as product end of life<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Develops very effective and practical processes<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Understanding of Finance – E&ND, inventory reserves and their impact on profit<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Compliance with SOX requirements and other regulations like ISO 14001, etc…<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Understanding of service support requirements, and allocations<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Understanding all components of the gross margin in order to be able to drive gross margin improvement initiatives.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Business, finance understanding of E&ND, reserves<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Very tight working relationship with Finance.  Understand how P&L works<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Business acumen.  Understand the trade-offs between upside, making money and obsolescence.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Very deep understanding of BOM structures<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Lead time and hedge management both in house and at suppliers<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Soft Skills:<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Very strong people selection and people management<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Develops his/her people<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Delegates<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Ability to work well in a highly matrixed environment<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Ability to manage very high complexity<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Can make decisions based on limited or ambiguous input<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Works very well on teams (PLC, within the factory)<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Demonstrated experience in taking plans and making them into reality (eg. Cost reduction)<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Very strong communication skills<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Strong leadership<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Customer focus<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">• Strong strategic thinker<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Basic Qualifications:<o:p></o:p></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Master's Level Degree with at least 6 years of experience.  <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">OR<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Bachelor's Level Degree with at least 7 years of experience.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Kindly send your resume to <a href="mailto:raju.balaji@kla-tencor.com">raju.balaji@kla-tencor.com</a></span><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;"> </span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;"></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div></div></div>

Materials Director (Supply Chain | Supplier Agreements | Supplier Management) (#109135)

Position: Materials Director Location: Milpitas, CA Duration: Full time Job Description: The Global Service Support Organization (GSS) te...

The results are in!

1:12 PM Tukiyooo 0

The results are in!

I have two winners for my recent competition ........ Drum roll...... The winners are blogger "Kim" and also the owner of "A ...

With Advances in Human Mortality, Scientists Say 72 Is the New 30 | The Exchange - Yahoo! Finance

11:48 AM Tukiyooo 0

<base href="data:"><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 14px; color: black; text-align: left; "><div style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">Life expectancy has exceeded 80 in several countries as many have made huge strides in reducing mortality rates. Life spans have increased so much over the past 100 or so years that, evolutionarily speaking, 72 is the new 30, says a study published in the<a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/10/10/1215627109" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 87, 144); text-decoration: none; "> Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences</a>.</div><p style="margin-top: 11px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); position: static; z-index: auto; ">Researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany used hunter-gatherer mortality data as a baseline to measure the rate of mortality reduction and how the probability of dying at specific ages has changed over time. They found that the bulk of mortality reduction has occurred since 1900 and that mortality at younger ages is now 200 times lower than that of previous generations. "The mortality revolution of the last 100 years is biologically unprecedented," Oskar Burger, one of the study's authors, said.</p><p style="margin: 11px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">The researchers examined Japanese and Swedish men (two countries with the longest life expectancies). Their most striking finding: the mortality rates of hunter-gatherers are closer to those of wild chimpanzees (humans' closest living relatives) than they are to today's mortality profiles for Japan and Sweden.</p><p style="margin: 11px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">The study, titled "Human Mortality Improvement in Evolutionary Context," notes that primitive hunter-gatherers at age 30 have the same probability of death as present-day Japanese person at age 72. "In other words, "compared with the evolutionary pattern, 72 is the new 30," the researchers write.</p><p style="margin: 11px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">Indeed, humans have made great progress in extending our lives, and the sharpest reductions in death rates began to accelerate around 1900, according to the paper's authors.</p><p style="margin: 11px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">The authors also compared the increase in human longevity to increases observed in fruit flies selectively bred to live longer. Their findings show that humans' ability for extended life is unprecedented, suggesting that the drop in mortality stems not from modifications to genes but from the environment – by making injuries and illness less fatal with advances in medical technologies and by improving health at older ages, as well other external sources like better "standards of living, education, public health, sanitation, medicine, housing and nutrition." They describe human mortality as being "plastic" and somewhat at odds with conventional theories of aging, which posit that harmful genetic mutations lead to accelerating death rates among individuals past childbearing age. But in fact, the lowest mortality is now experienced by people in their 70s and the chance of death of a 70-year-old Swede is less than one-tenth of the chance for hunter-gatherers.</p><p style="margin: 11px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); "><strong style="font-style: normal; font-weight: bold; ">Financial implications</strong></p><p style="margin: 11px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">Our extended life spans are already giving U.S. policy makers and the financial industry plenty of work trying to figure out how people can possibly make their savings last through a 30-year retirement. A 2011 survey by the <a href="http://www.soa.org/News-and-Publications/Newsroom/Press-Releases/2012-07-30-retirees-under.aspx" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 87, 144); text-decoration: none; ">Society of Actuaries</a>, more than half of respondents underestimated population longevity. And even when individuals or couples do make a reasonably good estimate of remaining lifetime for people their age, far too few of them provide adequately for the consequences of out¬living average life expectancy, the report said.</p><p style="margin: 11px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">Indeed, the implications are global. In its <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2012/01/pdf/c4.pdf" target="_blank" style="color: rgb(0, 87, 144); text-decoration: none; ">Global Financial Stability Report</a> published last year, the IMF underscored the hefty implications to governments and economies of people living longer than expected, also known as longevity risk. Part of the issue is that governments have done their analysis of aging largely based on best guesses of population developments. But longevity has been consistently and substantially underestimated.</p><p style="margin-top: 11px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); position: static; z-index: auto; ">If average life spans by 2050 were to increase three years more than now expected, the already high cost of aging would increase by 50%, the IMF report said, and society would need extra resources equal to 1% to 2% of GDP per year.</p><p style="margin-top: 11px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 22px; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); position: static; z-index: auto; "><br></p></div><a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/advances-human-mortality-72-30-174135745.html">http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/advances-human-mortality-72-30-174135745.html</a><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 14px; color: black; text-align: left; "><br class="webkit-block-placeholder"></div>

With Advances in Human Mortality, Scientists Say 72 Is the New 30 | The Exchange - Yahoo! Finance

Life expectancy has exceeded 80 in several countries as many have made huge strides in reducing mortality rates. Life spans have increased s...

Michelle Obama’s unnecessary Oscar turn

8:30 AM Tukiyooo 0

<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><img alt="Michelle Obama announced the Best Picture Oscar from the White House." height="425" src="http://c.o0bg.com/rf/image_960w/Boston/2011-2020/2013/02/25/BostonGlobe.com/EditorialOpinion/Images/517695415.jpg" width="640" /><br /><span style="background-color: white; color: #464646; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 18px;">Michelle Obama announced the Best Picture Oscar from the White House.</span><br /><br /><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; list-style: none; margin-bottom: 1.125em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">THE MOMENT Michelle Obama appeared at the Oscars, the surprise guest at the end of a long and listless night, a collective groan reportedly went through the Dolby Theater media room. On my East Coast couch, I felt the same dismay: Did they really have to go there?</div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; list-style: none; margin-bottom: 1.125em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Because everyone knew what was coming next. By Monday morning, the right-wing punditocracy had declared this a national tragedy: wholly inappropriate, brazenly political, proof that the White House is self-serving and elitist and in Hollywood’s pocket, or vice versa.</div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; list-style: none; margin-bottom: 1.125em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">OK, deep breath. First of all, there is no great standard for “appropriate” at the Academy Awards (which, I suppose, is a defense of Seth MacFarlane as host). This is an evening for wealthy people to name-check their agents while modeling plastic surgery techniques. Beyonce could lip-synch here, and no one would care.</div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; list-style: none; margin-bottom: 1.125em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Besides, the first lady’s statement was so carefully vetted and depoliticized that it left nothing to actually criticize: Something about the arts being good and movies making us laugh and cry and inspiring our nation’s youth. Singer Shirley Bassey, warning young women about the dangers of rich, cold men, was twice as relevant and 10 times more exciting.</div><div class="ad aside" data-adname-complete="true" data-adname="CENTRAL" style="background-color: white; border-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px 0px; clear: both; display: inline; float: right; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; list-style: none; margin: 0.5em -79px 1.5em 38.599998474121094px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: center; vertical-align: baseline; width: 311px;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; list-style: none; margin-bottom: 1.125em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">On the other hand, given the lack of an agenda to promote or political points to be won, the FLOTUS appearance seemed like unnecessary bait, proof that the White House has tone-deafness problems of its own.</div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; list-style: none; margin-bottom: 1.125em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">It’s easy to see why the White House jumped when Oscar producers came calling. The billion-viewer platform was surely irresistible; Republicans have used it, too, when offered the chance. Ronald Reagan taped a message to the Oscars in 1981. Laura Bush had a cameo in an Oscar-telecast video in 2002.</div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; list-style: none; margin-bottom: 1.125em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Obama’s trouble was agreeing to be the highlight of the ceremony, the super-secret guest with the most important role in Hollywood’s Most Important Night.</div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; list-style: none; margin-bottom: 1.125em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">It was an odd bad call for a woman who has proven surprisingly good at selling herself. Being first lady is a thankless job — you’re supposed to be substantive without projecting <i class="i" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">too much</i> substance, powerful without projecting <i class="i" style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; list-style: none; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">too much </i>power — but Obama has managed, better than most, to harness the celebrity for her own purposes. She champions good causes (and, really, somone’s going to get upset about nutrition?). She champions fashion; US Weekly quickly reported that her Oscar dress was by Naeem Khan. She dishes with Rachael Ray about her midlife-crisis bangs and <a class="a" href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hq-URl9F17Y" style="-webkit-transition: color 0.1s linear, background-color 0.1s linear; background-color: transparent; color: #666666; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">mom-dances</a> with Jimmy Fallon.</div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; list-style: none; margin-bottom: 1.125em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Usually, she manages a nifty trick: Looking glamorous, but not distant. This is, in fact, the same trick the Oscar ceremony tries to pull off every year, but usually fails, because too many participants get caught up in their own hype. Someone is always going to wear an inappropriate dress or blather on too long about his greatness. Someone is going to coo, “It came true,” while cradling her Oscar at the podium, triggering the gag reflex across America.</div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; list-style: none; margin-bottom: 1.125em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">And something predictably pious is going to happen in the end — as when Obama announced that this year’s top prize went to the movie about how Hollywood, teamed up with a hyper-competent US government, managed to save the world. (If Republicans ran Hollywood, the winner would have been the one about the miserable people in France.)</div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; list-style: none; margin-bottom: 1.125em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This would all be fine — “Argo” is good, art is art — but the Oscars always has to rub it in, patting Hollywood on the back for the goodness it projects into the world. On ABC’s red carpet show, a hostess asked Daniel Day Lewis if he still carried Lincoln in his heart.</div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; list-style: none; margin-bottom: 1.125em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Here’s what people don’t tend to ask on Oscar night: Why are so many movies filled with gratuitous gun violence? Why is the Hollywood elite still overwhelmingly white? Why do so many stars need Botox to sustain their careers?</div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; list-style: none; margin-bottom: 1.125em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Michelle Obama didn’t need to be a buzzkill at the Oscars. But the woman with a health-filled public policy agenda could stand to project a little distance. Instead, she had to parrot the self-congratulatory hype: that somehow the Best Picture nominees “prove that love can endure against all odds and transform our lives in the most surprising ways.”</div><div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 26px; list-style: none; margin-bottom: 1.125em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Right. With her platform as first lady, Obama can do better. To impress the lingering skeptics in the public, she’d get more mileage doing “Ellen.” Or, better yet, “Family Guy.”</div><br /><br /></div>

2013 Oscar Michelle Obama Michelle Obama’s unnecessary Oscar turn

Michelle Obama announced the Best Picture Oscar from the White House. THE MOMENT Michelle Obama appeared at the Oscars, the surprise guest a...

Oscar prognosticators: how did they do at picking the Academy Award winners?

8:27 AM Tukiyooo 0

<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><br /><div id="article-header" style="background-color: white; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; border-color: rgb(209, 0, 139); clear: left; color: #333333; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 15px; margin: 0px; min-height: 68px; padding: 0px; position: relative;"><div id="main-article-info" style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; float: left; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><h1 itemprop="name headline  " style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-bottom-color: rgb(209, 0, 139); border-collapse: collapse; border-left-color: rgb(209, 0, 139); border-right-color: rgb(209, 0, 139); border-top-width: 0px; font-family: georgia, serif; font-size: 2.166em; font-weight: normal; line-height: 1.154; margin: 0px 0px 2px; padding: 0px; width: 460px;"><span style="color: #666666; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.333em; line-height: 1.25;">Nate Silver and others took their statistical analysis to the film industry, but predicting awards might be tougher than elections</span></h1></div><ul class="share-links trackable-component" data-component="Article:top share tools" id="content-actions" style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; 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background-repeat: repeat no-repeat; border-bottom-left-radius: 3px; border-bottom-right-radius: 3px; border-collapse: collapse; border-top-left-radius: 3px; border-top-right-radius: 3px; border: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); height: 18px; margin-bottom: 5px !important; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding: 0px; width: 60px;"><a class="rollover send-email" href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/filmblog/2013/feb/25/oscar-prognosticators-academy-award-winners#" style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; color: #333333; float: left; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; width: 60px;" title="Send to a friend"><img alt="" class="trail-icon" src="http://static.guim.co.uk/static/fbbd5444dca1eb9b96ba971c352038f24cff1be2/common/images/icon-email.png" style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; border: none; margin: 0px 3px -2px 4px; padding: 0px;" />Email</a></li></ul></div><div id="content" style="background-color: white; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; color: #333333; float: left; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.166em; line-height: 1.357; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; width: 460px; z-index: 2;"><div data-component="Article:articlebody" id="article-wrapper" style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; border-color: rgb(209, 0, 139); border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; margin: 0px; padding: 5px 0px 0px; position: static !important;"><div id="main-content-picture" itemprop="image" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject" style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; margin: 0px 0px 14px; padding: 0px;"><img alt="christoph waltz oscar" height="276" itemprop="contentUrl representativeOfPage" src="http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2013/2/25/1361833448877/christoph-waltz-oscar-008.jpg" style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" width="460" /><div class="caption" itemprop="caption" style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; color: #666666; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">All but Farsite had Tommy Lee Jones winning best supporting actor – Farsite correctly picked Christophe Waltz. Photograph: Christopher Polk/Getty Images</div></div><div id="article-body-blocks" style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><div style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; margin-bottom: 13px; padding: 0px;">While Oscar fans spent Monday checking their pools to see if they picked more winners than their friends, I was wondering whether statistics experts did a good job forecasting the results.</div><div style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; margin-bottom: 13px; padding: 0px;">I found four websites that used a <a href="http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2013-02/best-mathematical-models-for-predicting-the-oscars" style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; color: #005689; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;">variety of statistical methods</a> to predict winners. <a href="http://oscarforecast.wordpress.com/predictions/" style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; color: #005689; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;">Ben Zauzmer</a>, a Harvard sophomore, built a model from critics' ratings and results from other awards shows. <a href="http://www.farsiteforecast.com/vanity-fair-polls-and-parties/" style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; color: #005689; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;">Farsite</a> <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/10/oh-farsite-oscars-idUSnPnCL40497+160+PRN20130110" style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; color: #005689; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;">used data such as</a>results from other awards shows, the total number of nominations, buzz, and prior nominations for actors and actresses. <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/22/oscar-predictions-election-style/" style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; color: #005689; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;">Nate Silver</a> used awards shows as a kind of <a href="http://dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com/2013/02/25/a-quick-post-mortem-on-oscars-forecasting/" style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; color: #005689; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;">pre-election poll average</a>. <a href="http://www.predictwise.com/node/1298" style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; color: #005689; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;">PredictWise</a> combined prediction markets and user sentiment from games.</div><div style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; margin-bottom: 13px; padding: 0px;">All four are at least somewhat affected by past awards shows. The first three make an index from previous awards, while PredictWise puts a lot more emphasis on what everyday people (whether through betting markets or games) thought – and obviously they must be heavily influenced by previous awards shows, too.</div><div style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; margin-bottom: 13px; padding: 0px;">None of them made any big misses. They all agreed on <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/danieldaylewis" style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; color: #005689; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" title="More from guardian.co.uk on Daniel Day-Lewis">Daniel Day-Lewis</a>for best actor, Jennifer Lawrence for best actress, Argo for best film and Anne Hathaway for best supporting actress.</div><div style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; margin-bottom: 13px; padding: 0px;">The categories where they disagreed is where the errors occurred. All but Farsite had Tommy Lee Jones winning best supporting actor for Lincoln. Farsite correctly pegged Christophe Waltz in Django Unchained.</div><div style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; margin-bottom: 13px; padding: 0px;">Those who missed here recognized the difficulty. PredictWise had Jones only at 44% to win with Waltz just behind at 40%. Zauzmer put Jones at 43% and Waltz at 34%. Silver's miss was worse than either PredictWise in that he had Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master just slightly ahead of Waltz in probability. The reason seems to have something to do with Hoffman garnering more nominations for his role in other contests. Even so, Silver still called it the "most competitive category".</div><div style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; margin-bottom: 13px; padding: 0px;">The worst miss in the major six was best director. Credit must go to Zauzmer who had <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/anglee" style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; color: #005689; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" title="More from guardian.co.uk on Ang Lee">Ang Lee</a> for Life of Pi as the favorite. The rest had<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/stevenspielberg" style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; color: #005689; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" title="More from guardian.co.uk on Steven Spielberg">Steven Spielberg</a> for Lincoln. I say "worst" miss because both Farsite and PredictWise had Spielberg at over 75% to win. The miss was particularly bad for Farsite because it tended to be quite conservative in its percentage chances to win and only had Hathaway at a greater chance to win an award. Silver, to his credit, called it a tossup for lack of data.</div><div style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; margin-bottom: 13px; padding: 0px;">Thus, the final scores were Farsite and Zauzmer five for six, and PredictWise and Silver four for six. I really wouldn't read very much into these small differences. It's a very small sample size, not significant to make a judgement about which models are better predictors or better calibrated (ie understanding uncertainty).</div><div style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; margin-bottom: 13px; padding: 0px;">When we expand to the 21 categories prognosticated by both Zauzmer and PredictWise, they score evenly at 17 out of 21. Both had Lincoln third in best production design, even though it won. In addition, Zauzmer did not get Django Unchained in best original screenplay or Skyfall for best cinematography, while PredictWise failed to peg Les Misérables in best makeup and hairstyling.</div><div style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; margin-bottom: 13px; padding: 0px;">A more important point to take away is that there was at least one statistical predictor got it right in all six major categories. That suggests that a key fact about political forecasting holds for the Oscars: averaging of the averages works. You get a better idea looking at multiple models, even if they themselves include multiple factors, than just looking at one.</div><div style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; margin-bottom: 13px; padding: 0px;">This <a href="http://marginoferror.org/2012/11/08/aggregating-the-aggregates/" style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; color: #005689; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;">average of the averages</a> held among the wider 21 categories. In only one, best production design, did one of the four not get it. A little over 95% of the time did we have at least some idea of what was coming. This is pretty comparable to election polling.</div><div style="background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; border-collapse: collapse; margin-bottom: 13px; padding: 0px;">The overall lesson here is that while we won't always know the winner from any one model, we will rarely be too surprised so long as we take into all the statistical models. My guess is that 17 out of 21 or about 80% is a pretty good guide of what the best systems can do. There's no sign that anyone has cracked any sort of code here. They all did about as well and together gave us a very good heads-up as to who would win.</div></div></div></div></div>

2013 Oscar Oscar prognosticators: how did they do at picking the Academy Award winners?

Nate Silver and others took their statistical analysis to the film industry, but predicting awards might be tougher than elections Share 0 i...

Janet Jackson reveals she secretly married Wissam Al Mana in 2012

8:26 AM Tukiyooo 0

<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><img alt="Janet Jackson and Wissam Al Mana in a" src="http://cdn.newsday.com/polopoly_fs/1.4712909.1361889086!/httpImage/image.JPG_gen/derivatives/display_600/image.JPG" /><br /><span style="color: #666666; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 15.600000381469727px;">Photo credit: AP | Janet Jackson and Wissam Al Mana in a portrait taken by photographer Marco Glaviano.</span><br /><br /><div style="border: 0px; color: #061826; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.5em; outline: 0px; padding: 6px 0px 6px 12px; vertical-align: baseline;">Janet Jackson knows how to keep a secret: The singer has been married since last year.</div><div style="border: 0px; color: #061826; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.5em; outline: 0px; padding: 6px 0px 6px 12px; vertical-align: baseline;">A representative for Jackson confirmed Monday that the musician and Wissam Al Mana wed last year.</div><div style="border: 0px; color: #061826; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.5em; outline: 0px; padding: 6px 0px 6px 12px; vertical-align: baseline;">This is Jackson's second secret marriage. She secretly married Rene Elizondo Jr. in 1991. They separated in 1999.</div><div style="border: 0px; color: #061826; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.5em; outline: 0px; padding: 6px 0px 6px 12px; vertical-align: baseline;">The 46-year-old Jackson first tied the knot when she was 18 to singer <a href="http://www.newsday.com/topics//James_DeBarge_(musician)" style="border: 0px; color: #1a557b; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">James DeBarge</a>, which lasted three months in 1984.</div><div style="border: 0px; color: #061826; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.5em; outline: 0px; padding: 6px 0px 6px 12px; vertical-align: baseline;">In a joint statement to Entertainment Tonight, Jackson and Al Mana said their wedding was a "quiet, private and beautiful ceremony."</div><div style="border: 0px; color: #061826; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.5em; outline: 0px; padding: 6px 0px 6px 12px; vertical-align: baseline;">The couple also said they would like privacy and "are allowed this time for celebration and joy."</div></div>

Janet Jackson Janet Jackson reveals she secretly married Wissam Al Mana in 2012

Photo credit: AP | Janet Jackson and Wissam Al Mana in a portrait taken by photographer Marco Glaviano. Janet Jackson knows how to keep a se...