News for today's 2018

<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9hKX8fPcw2XCpjJRcsPqnPvcxEtXIt32tsrMamtBFHPZvhmKwgVc0IDio77d8A7fjSVs2pKV9LXFhzK5tKLVN1e_HTEVj8Hr6_ymtf0tv0TrOGy8159wVa5qpvOEkwaUfALzzTXCAPaK8/s1600/0416ypf.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9hKX8fPcw2XCpjJRcsPqnPvcxEtXIt32tsrMamtBFHPZvhmKwgVc0IDio77d8A7fjSVs2pKV9LXFhzK5tKLVN1e_HTEVj8Hr6_ymtf0tv0TrOGy8159wVa5qpvOEkwaUfALzzTXCAPaK8/s400/0416ypf.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal; margin: 15pt 0in 3.75pt;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Argentina Takes Over YPF Energy Company</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #444444; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Via Stratfor with comments from Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring </span></span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">SUMMARY </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: 16.8pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ARGENTINE President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner announced April 16 that she will send a bill to Congress authorizing the expropriation of a majority stake in YPF, a subsidiary of SPANISH energy company REPSOL. This will give the government greater flexibility in managing the oil and gas sector, but presents a number of serious challenges -- including the fact that this process has made outside investors even more wary of investing in ARGENTINA.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS AND MONITORING COMMENT</span></i></b><i><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">: Outside investors might be wary of investing in Argentina but since demand for natural resource will continue to increase, so will the search for new investment opportunities. In view of these facts Argentina will most likely not fall short of finding outside investors in the long run. Such assumptions usually are politically motivated with the “help” of lobbyists</span></i><i><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">.</span></i></span></div><h1><span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="color: blue;">See:  </span></i><i><span><span style="color: windowtext; font-weight: normal;"></span><a href="http://www.investmentu.com/2011/October/shale-gas-boom-in-argentina.html"><span style="color: windowtext; font-weight: normal;">http://www.investmentu.com/2011/October/shale-gas-boom-in-argentina.html</span></a></span></i></span></h1><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://oilandgas-investments.com/2011/oil-stocks/how-to-invest-in-argentinas-emerging-shale-oil-gas-play/">http://oilandgas-investments.com/2011/oil-stocks/how-to-invest-in-argentinas-emerging-shale-oil-gas-play/</a></span></i></span><b><i><span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"></span></i></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: 16.8pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ANALYSIS</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Under the new law, the federal government will hold 26.01 percent of the company while the provincial governments in oil-producing areas will split 24.99 percent, giving ARGENTINA a 51 percent majority stake. The decision is in line with recent leaked reports that the government would declare a majority stake in YPF and settles a month’s long dispute between YPF and the government.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ONE OF THE GOVERNMENT'S KEY GOALS HAS BEEN TO STOP YPF'S PRACTICE OF REMITTING 90 PERCENT OF ITS PROFITS AS DIVIDENDS TO STOCKHOLDERS </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Currently, REPSOL owns 57.43 percent, ARGENTINA'S Eskenazi family (through the Petersen Group) owns 25.46 percent, several private groups own 17.09 percent in publicly traded stock, and the ARGENTINE government owns 0.02 percent plus a "golden" share that gives it a veto on board decisions. According to Fernandez, the government plans to take its entire 51 percent from REPSOL. In its recent dispute with REPSOL, one of the government's key goals has been to stop YPF's practice of remitting 90 percent of its profits as dividends to stockholders and instead invest that money into new production. With both oil and natural gas production declining, the government spent $9 billion on fuel imports alone in 2011 to maintain sufficient supply of subsidized fuel for ARGENTINA'S populace. Given the rampant decline of the industry and the strong potential for oil and natural gas production in the country's favorable geology, more investment could be the sector's ticket to success.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS AND MONITORING COMMENT</span></i></b><i><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">: When ARGENTINA was the “Sunny boy” of the IMF under President Menem, who unquestionably followed IMF doctrine of privatizing state assets, ARGENTINA lost, among other assets, large pieces of land to foreign entities, thus loosing access to natural resources and revenues, which, among other issues, led to the countries default. At that time or as a matter of fact even nowadays no one seems to blame Menem and his government for literally selling out the country, simply because he had the support of influential lobbyists in key industries and corporations, because he did what he was told to do by these entities.</span></i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">In view of these facts, ARGENTINA’S goal of stopping YPF's practice of remitting 90 percent of its profits as dividends to stockholders instead of investing that money into new production in the country’s favorable geology only seems legitimate.</span></i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ARGENTINA ALSO POSSESSES SUBSTANTIAL UNCONVENTIONAL ENERGY RESERVES -- BOTH PROVEN AND ESTIMATED</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">However, there are serious questions about whether the government has the capacity to rapidly or efficiently increase production. The struggle between YPF and the government has been bitter and, as a consequence, the provincial governments have revoked not only YPF concessions but also BRAZILIAN and CANADIAN concessions. YPF is the major player in ARGENTINA'S oil and natural gas sector, and likely has the ability to increase production in conventional deposits of oil and natural gas. ARGENTINA also possesses substantial unconventional reserves -- both proven and estimated -- which will require foreign capital investment and advanced outside technical expertise.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Energy companies typically have a high tolerance for volatility, and with unconventional oil and natural gas basins bringing ARGENTINA'S possible reserves to more than 25 billion barrels of oil and more than 22 trillion cubic meters (777 trillion cubic feet) of natural gas, the country has the potential to be a highly lucrative investment.</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> </span></b><span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">See:  <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/argentine-shale-gas-production-could.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/argentine-shale-gas-production-could.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">  </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Knowing this, the ARGENTINE government is likely to maintain a highly interventionist policy in the energy sector, putting any investment at a high risk of regulatory disruption. However, if the government offers favorable terms, the short-term gains could make partnering with YPF profitable -- even under government management. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">THE GOVERNMENT HAS ALSO RECENTLY LOOSENED FINANCING OPTIONS BY MAKING CENTRAL BANK RESERVES AVAILABLE FOR LENDING TO "PRODUCTIVE" PROJECTS. </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: 16.8pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">FINANCING FOR THE OIL AND GAS SECTOR MAY THUS BE MADE AVAILABLE FROM DOMESTIC SOURCES WITHOUT HAVING TO TURN TO RISK-AVERSE INTERNATIONAL LENDERS. </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Aside from the overarching regulatory environment, the expropriation will directly affect the operations of YPF. ARGENTINE Planning Minister Julio de Vido, a longtime ally of Fernandez and her deceased husband Nestor, and recently appointed Political Economy Secretary Axel Kicillof will be in charge of managing the transition of YPF from REPSOL to the government. De Vido and Kicillof will be charged with ensuring the company's loyalty to the federal government. As we have seen with a number of recent moves in the political inner circle, those close to Fernandez can expect to find influential places in the new YPF. This process will be critical for YPF's future. If YPF follows the path of VENEZUELAN state-owned energy company Petroleos de VENEZUELA -- where technocrats were all replaced with government loyalists, radically decreasing the company's efficiency -- the prognosis is poor for YPF's ability to increase production. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Finally, there will be serious pressure on YPF to transfer resources to the provincial and federal governments, since government at every level in ARGENTINA is suffering from serious budget shortfalls, and the country's isolation from international lending markets reduces its flexibility in funding social programs. Rising energy costs have exacerbated this overarching challenge, but increasing energy production will not completely solve it. In the medium- to long-term outlook for YPF, the company likely will be required to supply an increasing percentage of government budgetary needs. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; line-height: 115%;">GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS AND MONITORING GENERAL COMMENT</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; line-height: 115%;">:</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; line-height: 115%;">Since ARGENTINA’S default in 2001 and subsequent isolations from international financial markets, financial institutions, the geo political “powerhouses” have been predicting ARGENTINES economic downfall, for not following the eco political doctrines implemented by the World Bank, IMF and International Financial Institutions. Contrary to doomsday scenarios portrayed by these entities, ARGENTINA has managed to achieve economic growth and social security. Being excluded from the international lending markets so far has not showcased advert effects on Argentines economy.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; line-height: 115%;">MANY SPANISH ENTERPRISES HAVE SURVIVED THE CRISIS BECAUSE OF THEIR LATIN AMERICAN SUBSIDIARIES HAVING OFFSET THEIR POOR PERFORMANCE IN SPAIN</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; line-height: 115%;">Like, SPAIN'S biggest banks, SANTANDER and BBVA, that so far have survived the crisis because profits in LATIN AMERICA have offset their poor performance in SPAIN,( Half of SANTANDER'S profits come from its LATIN AMERICAN operations, compared to one-third for BBVA.)REPSOL, like SANTANDER and BBVA, relies heavily on its LATIN AMRICAN operations which generate the larger portion of its profits. In view of these facts it becomes clear that REPSOL with the help of the Spanish government will try everything in its power to challenge the takeover. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">RENOWNED ARGENTINE ECONOMIST JOSE LUIS ESPERT SEES NO IMMINENT DANGER TO ARGENTINES ECONOMIC GROWTH </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: 16.8pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">In the long run Argentina will face no international eco - political consequences because of the YPF takeover other than corporate media attacks and saber rattling from Spain, the World Bank and IMF, but without effect since Argentina is already excluded from the International Financial System, much to the annoyance of these entities for they have no tools to intervene! Due to its vast amount of natural resources and increasing foreign demand, the country will sustain economic growth even if staying expelled from International Financial Institutions.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: 16.8pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #111111; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">See:</span><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/01/argentine-government-may-gain-from.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/01/argentine-government-may-gain-from.html</a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 16.8pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: 16.8pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Renowned Argentine Economist <b>Jose Luis Espert</b> stated during an Economic Forum recently held at a prominent German Enterprise, based in Buenos Aires, that Argentina has enough funds to sustain its budget needs and that export revenues of agricultural commodities, will continue to grow, thus there is no real danger for Argentines economy to stagnate, even if demand from Asia will drop slightly. Predicted short-term budget shortfalls will not affect long-term strategies. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: 16.8pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black; line-height: 16.8pt;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl9OmDjjenZNt448a0kh7jaSBpiqtt6Q2EO4hzKnHYBiYdAkwKCxYQSbr32PrSSPSg2FtNZttrsaGFFoB4u5Qn0t_ohGaIn6BJnjDGu6bajKt2Vj7JsFLfovKVauoTKaoTEqWmRsxS7DZK/s1600/tipo-de-produccion-por-mina.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="173" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl9OmDjjenZNt448a0kh7jaSBpiqtt6Q2EO4hzKnHYBiYdAkwKCxYQSbr32PrSSPSg2FtNZttrsaGFFoB4u5Qn0t_ohGaIn6BJnjDGu6bajKt2Vj7JsFLfovKVauoTKaoTEqWmRsxS7DZK/s320/tipo-de-produccion-por-mina.gif" width="320" /></a><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Furthermore one should not forget that the mining industry in Argentina is rapidly expanding, drawing international investor’s attention despite the government’s politics of protectionism. The same applies for Shale Oil extraction; even if the extraction process is expensive, projected revenues will draw investment, despite political hurdles, because in the long run it is a highly profitable investment.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: black;"><br /></div>

Argentina and REPSOL

Argentina Takes Over YPF Energy Company Via Stratfor with comments from Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring SUMMARY ARGENTINE President C...

Argentina and REPSOL

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