When 0.9997 Correlations Fail

The following chart shows the 20 year moving average of annual miles traveled per capita. A trend line in red has been added.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgYqRsTp86fmD4vpHwVBACeuPlpJwSUcLN2vfPK7_Cg7fx-g7u718bCiHIopBJ7avtZstzV2vAHSfASXOAqlEX9AZMjdWREKXIp1fNsyOIotx-vty8mF0NyA8KXlI040nxCj8fSi0bYpA/s1600/Annual+Vehicle+Miles+Traveled+per+Capita.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgYqRsTp86fmD4vpHwVBACeuPlpJwSUcLN2vfPK7_Cg7fx-g7u718bCiHIopBJ7avtZstzV2vAHSfASXOAqlEX9AZMjdWREKXIp1fNsyOIotx-vty8mF0NyA8KXlI040nxCj8fSi0bYpA/s320/Annual+Vehicle+Miles+Traveled+per+Capita.jpg" /></a><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Click to enlarge.</span><br /><br />This is definitely the most impressive "sure thing" failure yet. 0.9997! Sis boom bah!<br /><br /><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/76wzA2A2T1Q" width="420"></iframe><br /><br /><div style="color: #666666;"><i>Sis boom bah.<br />Describe the sound made when a sheep explodes.</i></div><br /><b>January 12, 2014</b><br /><a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2014/01/12/toyota-sees-auto-industry-growth-slowing-in-2014/">Toyota Sees Auto Industry Growth Slowing in 2014</a><br /><br /><div style="color: #666666;"><i>Continued sales growth will be more a result of economic gains rather than pent-up demand, he said. “That’s good, because <span style="color: red;">pent-up demand can carry you just so far</span>.”</i></div><br />You think?<br /><br /><b>Source Data:</b><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=sr5">St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart</a>

When 0.9997 Correlations Fail

The following chart shows the 20 year moving average of annual miles traveled per capita. A trend line in red has been added. Click to enlar...

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