Building Permit Slowdown for Privately Owned 1-Unit Structures

The first chart shows the annual change in new privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits for 1-unit structures. I'm using quarterly averages to smooth out the noise a bit.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhykSb_yM9Apt_wyGJCUKVE5D7_ybPwy7UXMmZtzmi2yazoZjJiVAJh1JhQw_eqYh5FO2GIimiTC8zMG9h_K9MtEx5nOzAvQiGj0W7MD2fpS21JDJJ1C4C18ycVmIcS4mdbcsJZbgmxkuQ/s1600/Building+Permit+Slowdown+-+National.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhykSb_yM9Apt_wyGJCUKVE5D7_ybPwy7UXMmZtzmi2yazoZjJiVAJh1JhQw_eqYh5FO2GIimiTC8zMG9h_K9MtEx5nOzAvQiGj0W7MD2fpS21JDJJ1C4C18ycVmIcS4mdbcsJZbgmxkuQ/s320/Building+Permit+Slowdown+-+National.jpg" /></a><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Click to enlarge.</span><br /><br />Can't we just blame it the weather and call it good?<br /><br />The next chart shows just the data for Florida, Nevada, and Arizona (three of the previous housing bubble's largest hotspots).<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0JQHTIUiLpl_DbZBZzSK5905ApOdiKdrT7vibCJxEK3-2zhx-lUswMSYErPRw6DhGfChhEE9kflFhcANgkAu4FtAjPmZuPpVFwh9kIpsVQM5APrv6ZnEjWLEhLp0FFB7vTJ1AYOp7SmU/s1600/Building+Permit+Slowdown+-+Florida+++Nevada+++Arizona.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0JQHTIUiLpl_DbZBZzSK5905ApOdiKdrT7vibCJxEK3-2zhx-lUswMSYErPRw6DhGfChhEE9kflFhcANgkAu4FtAjPmZuPpVFwh9kIpsVQM5APrv6ZnEjWLEhLp0FFB7vTJ1AYOp7SmU/s320/Building+Permit+Slowdown+-+Florida+++Nevada+++Arizona.jpg" /></a><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Click to enlarge.</span><br /><br />I guess it all depends on how much annual polar vortex activity there was in Florida, Nevada, and Arizona. As seen in the chart, the growth trend has been decelerating at a consistent pace for a full year. We'll therefore need a whole year's worth of polar vortex activity in three of the warmest states. Totally doable with the right spin!<br /><br />Further, just look at all that volatility in the data since 2005. I can't even begin to tell you how much that fills me with confidence. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Tortoise_and_the_Hare">Slow and steady is so overrated.</a> Anarchy! Random profits and losses! That's what makes the casino life right for me!<br /><br />This is not investment advice (especially that part about casino life being right for me).<br /><br /><b>Source Data:</b><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=rqK">St. Louis Fed: Building Permits for 1-Unit Structures (National)</a><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=rqT">St. Louis Fed: Building Permits for 1-Unit Structures (Florida + Nevada + Arizona)</a>

Building Permit Slowdown for Privately Owned 1-Unit Structures

The first chart shows the annual change in new privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits for 1-unit structures. I'm u...

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