A Workin' Man's Growth, Stagnation, and Crash Model

The following chart shows real monthly manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft per civilian employed (December 2013 dollars). I am using quarterly averages to smooth things out a bit.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTurGbrsERZIUYuNPicigs8B7X9W1XE7d-0InUGU1pzsVVIJpRq1DbZK4JxoCCS7cnY4Y5IiXGRZxrwONKJSOfRDkrYNQsI4VWRFlOSd_kJg2h014O3lCJ4M6j-F3JwEy7Xb_6WJNI94g/s1600/Real+New+Orders+per+Civilian+Employed.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTurGbrsERZIUYuNPicigs8B7X9W1XE7d-0InUGU1pzsVVIJpRq1DbZK4JxoCCS7cnY4Y5IiXGRZxrwONKJSOfRDkrYNQsI4VWRFlOSd_kJg2h014O3lCJ4M6j-F3JwEy7Xb_6WJNI94g/s320/Real+New+Orders+per+Civilian+Employed.jpg" /></a><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Click to enlarge.</span><br /><br />Green trend lines represent growth.<br />Yellow trend lines represent stagnation.<br />Red trend lines represent "soft patches."<br /><br />What's the worst that could "unexpectedly" happen again?<br /><br /><b>January 28, 2014</b><br /><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/28/us-economy-durables-idUSBREA0R0YP20140128">Durable goods orders unexpectedly plunge in December</a><br /><br /><div style="color: #666666;"><i>(Reuters) - Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods unexpectedly fell in December as did a gauge of planned business spending on capital goods, which could cast a shadow on an otherwise bright economic outlook.</i></div><br /><b>Source Data:</b><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=rqb">St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart</a>

A Workin' Man's Growth, Stagnation, and Crash Model

The following chart shows real monthly manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft per civilian employed (...

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