When Can We Expect a Return to Normal Interest Rates?

<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdLhUbUrR4GllPu8zZCqDgtaPBbL1nGuNKeRqV159DcfKJi3XTYFtbjqdmV4cvnldTQPMejQT25FscGUnySbcvdaB571lWDMOEcn68ZZIT9n3zkQSDuyrcQ6_K4_qcgX7LSNqrdGWt2lY/s1600/A+Return+to+Normal+Interest+Rates.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdLhUbUrR4GllPu8zZCqDgtaPBbL1nGuNKeRqV159DcfKJi3XTYFtbjqdmV4cvnldTQPMejQT25FscGUnySbcvdaB571lWDMOEcn68ZZIT9n3zkQSDuyrcQ6_K4_qcgX7LSNqrdGWt2lY/s320/A+Return+to+Normal+Interest+Rates.jpg" /></a><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Click to enlarge.</span><br /><br />Last month? We have returned to the long-term trend line in blue. What more do you want?<br /><br />I guess it was sort of a trick question. This chart shows how tiny small time deposits (under $100,000) are compared to how much debt the consumer has racked up (bottom scale). The ratio hit a new low in September and I don't really expect November to buck the trend. It also shows what that tiny ratio might mean to 10-year treasury yields (left scale).<br /><br />Perhaps you are interested in <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=poh">large time deposits</a> instead? Good luck finding a trend there. I'm not sure <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_One_Percent">the one percent</a> buy enough canned goods to matter (probably close to 1% at best). I'm also guessing that they don't generally <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2013/11/the-futures-so-bright-i-gotta-rent-tires.html">rent tires</a>. Just a hunch.<br /><br />Deep sigh.<br /><br /><b>Source Data:</b><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=poe">St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart</a>

When Can We Expect a Return to Normal Interest Rates?

Click to enlarge. Last month? We have returned to the long-term trend line in blue. What more do you want? I guess it was sort of a trick qu...

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