Our Rose-Colored Economy

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of annualized production and nonsupervisory florist employee minutes worked per capita.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYBqe_QpyLFaLxqtMu8gPTut9R728ifEceDPgEsQgGwwyKePCfOCapeqd_Fla8WCJBHfks4DeVO3iVzyN1-2FhLl9sEwE7J3pHKvhqSiDkvs1We_xIRHvDObThmBE6od8nfcGqB-wdUC0/s1600/Our+Rose-Colored+Economy+-+Long-Term.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYBqe_QpyLFaLxqtMu8gPTut9R728ifEceDPgEsQgGwwyKePCfOCapeqd_Fla8WCJBHfks4DeVO3iVzyN1-2FhLl9sEwE7J3pHKvhqSiDkvs1We_xIRHvDObThmBE6od8nfcGqB-wdUC0/s320/Our+Rose-Colored+Economy+-+Long-Term.jpg" /></a><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Click to enlarge.</span><br /><br />The Fed can lead consumers to flowers, but it can't make them buy. The linear trend in blue ended in 2001. It has been replaced with an exponential decay trend in red. Let's zoom in for a closer look.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSFQl90-iI3oVGgygRR-haMjCSJvHf5MVue_JpuDa1mUogDbMK2J0Ob_wtZoyIVrfy8QPM8X1e7uHwguOc5uAAuHEDA40kulakNdt5oQ0w4Bek1lonHYWIBN7LQDxK4zpgtImyNfLc8Dc/s1600/Our+Rose-Colored+Economy+-+Short-Term.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSFQl90-iI3oVGgygRR-haMjCSJvHf5MVue_JpuDa1mUogDbMK2J0Ob_wtZoyIVrfy8QPM8X1e7uHwguOc5uAAuHEDA40kulakNdt5oQ0w4Bek1lonHYWIBN7LQDxK4zpgtImyNfLc8Dc/s320/Our+Rose-Colored+Economy+-+Short-Term.jpg" /></a><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Click to enlarge.</span><br /><br />It would very much appear that the monetary placebo is wearing off again. Note that annualized florist employment minutes per capita are rolling over (as also seen in late 2000 and late 2007).<br /><br /><b>August 9, 2013</b><br /><a href="http://theswellesleyreport.com/2013/08/has-twig-snapped-in-wellesley/">Has Twig Snapped in Wellesley?</a><br /><br /><div style="color: #666666;"><i>Are they on vacation? There was no note on the door mentioning such a thing and besides, Twig’s web site points out that they are closed only two days per year, and a plain old Thursday in July isn’t one of them.</i></div><br /><b>August 11, 2013</b><br /><a href="http://theswellesleyreport.com/2013/08/wellesley-florist-twig-files-for-chapter-7-bankruptcy/">Wellesley florist Twig files for Chapter 7 bankruptcy</a><br /><br /><div style="color: #666666;"><i>Twig, the fancy floral shop at 50 Central St., that we reported earlier this week had mysteriously shut its doors, has filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy.</i></div><br /><a href="http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/201658">Florist - Starting a Florist Business</a><br /><br /><div style="color: #666666;"><i><b>Do you think now is a good time to start up a wedding flowers business? <span style="color: red;">Do you think the market is oversaturated yet?</span></b> Regarding oversaturation, with the heavy encouragement to be a stay-at-home mother or father, I have noticed people are looking for ways to "control" their work weeks. Jobs such as floral design may seem to be a nice way to supplement a family income. What I have noticed is that they quickly realize that the hours are taxing; there is no such thing as 9-to-5. <span style="color: red;">Do I believe that there is oversaturation? Yes. </span>Yet it's quickly thinned as soon as it begins.</i></div><br />Emphasis added (in red).<br /><br />This is not investment advice. If it was investment advice, I might suggest that there were probably better times in all of recorded history to start a florist business. I'd probably also mention that about the only thing rose-colored about this economy long-term is the glasses.<br /><br /><b>Source Data:</b><br /><a href="http://www.bls.gov/data/#employment">BLS: Employment</a><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/POP">St. Louis Fed: Population</a>

Our Rose-Colored Economy

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of annualized production and nonsupervisory florist employee minutes worked per capita...

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