The Rise and Fall of the Middle Manager

The following chart shows nonfarm payrolls minus production and non-supervisory employees.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtjPVs_LP_JlunFXrS9ueoOoiHs_eRgg4WNw-CV934MGI2HDFBfWJw3KsVOClZP36iTIE6M6kB1QyZolVAqPGgPOHR9_X0eINLQVNcR22kC0yNni9uGvpkEQ4Lzuv8NHFSY9Mymx_VSfA/s1600/Middle+Manager+Employment.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtjPVs_LP_JlunFXrS9ueoOoiHs_eRgg4WNw-CV934MGI2HDFBfWJw3KsVOClZP36iTIE6M6kB1QyZolVAqPGgPOHR9_X0eINLQVNcR22kC0yNni9uGvpkEQ4Lzuv8NHFSY9Mymx_VSfA/s320/Middle+Manager+Employment.jpg" /></a><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Click to enlarge.</span><br /><br />At first glance, this appears to be yet another trend failure. That is not the case though! There is a trend that nearly perfectly describes what is going on. I just need to alter the way the data is displayed so that you can see it better.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqL0xe6zzTRnmPnE8jHDI2KnXQX374lz6tBBJiZEnAGu4J3SarUW5YFs2KA4OcNg7ojj4iypXP5x7Yul6TjzWXjRHCB5awu89VIvdVLhBHh9VWS9rndJIbfjQ_2bCs3ZzCQkeaikv3h2Y/s1600/Middle+Manager+Employment+-+Natural+Log+2.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqL0xe6zzTRnmPnE8jHDI2KnXQX374lz6tBBJiZEnAGu4J3SarUW5YFs2KA4OcNg7ojj4iypXP5x7Yul6TjzWXjRHCB5awu89VIvdVLhBHh9VWS9rndJIbfjQ_2bCs3ZzCQkeaikv3h2Y/s320/Middle+Manager+Employment+-+Natural+Log+2.jpg" /></a><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Click to enlarge.</span><br /><br />When using a log scale, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line. The line in the chart above is certainly not straight. It is curving downwards. As seen in the following chart, it is curving downwards in a very consistent way. In fact, it is the exact same way that a baseball in flight would be curved downwards after it is hit into the air, with gravity being the constant. I'm using a 2nd order polynomial to show the path.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3LWvRABW8BKBcwdrugnvsiyxHyU2HtRZg6zkKRB9Nbk6EP6yEbiUwFbF2yD_a_MWmJ338m7dPBdyAQ3FCnUP8nIjM6g0pagEo2jL66WgbBJLQVxdI4OE5AA-rIayOigsnO1p8ptmeIZA/s1600/Middle+Manager+Employment+-+Natural+Log.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3LWvRABW8BKBcwdrugnvsiyxHyU2HtRZg6zkKRB9Nbk6EP6yEbiUwFbF2yD_a_MWmJ338m7dPBdyAQ3FCnUP8nIjM6g0pagEo2jL66WgbBJLQVxdI4OE5AA-rIayOigsnO1p8ptmeIZA/s320/Middle+Manager+Employment+-+Natural+Log.jpg" /></a><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Click to enlarge.</span><br /><br />There are 42 million jobs here. I just don't see where the future growth will come from. These also tend to be the higher paying jobs that a person holding a college degree might have. Sigh.<br /><br />The future's so bright I gotta... Oh, never mind. I give up.<br /><br /><i style="color: red;">“A pessimist is a man who has been compelled to live with an optimist.”</i><span style="color: red;"> </span>– Elbert Hubbard<br /><br /><b>Source Data:</b><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=maV">St. Louis Fed: Nonfarm Payolls Minus Production and Nonsupervisory Employees</a><br /><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=maW">St. Louis Fed: Nonfarm Payolls Minus Production and Nonsupervisory Employees (Natural Log)</a>

The Rise and Fall of the Middle Manager

The following chart shows nonfarm payrolls minus production and non-supervisory employees. Click to enlarge. At first glance, this appears t...

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