ISRAEL and IRAN

<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQ5uToWaM9o8NIh9dq-0cWV-xGmhFcxUIgpQsQQqK9OYotiwF248fiPzMn8HNQfTE1Q9BIUy5GpIUgJiw8uJAXaNue5rfaRfIyIotfN9CTC-cElRM-vJmGB0oCEiGE3TScktmhW2deetZ_/s1600/Israel+Iran+nuclear.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQ5uToWaM9o8NIh9dq-0cWV-xGmhFcxUIgpQsQQqK9OYotiwF248fiPzMn8HNQfTE1Q9BIUy5GpIUgJiw8uJAXaNue5rfaRfIyIotfN9CTC-cElRM-vJmGB0oCEiGE3TScktmhW2deetZ_/s320/Israel+Iran+nuclear.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br /></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">AIRSTRIKE UNLIKELY </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">In recent past mainstream media and ISRAEL itself stipulates that it is pushing for a preemptive airstrike on IRAN. Looking at ISRAEL history and how it conducts its wars and covert operations, it becomes imminent that it relies heavily on the element of surprise. Such was the case during most of its wars, rescue operations such as Entebbe, UGANDA in 1976, the IRAQI nuclear reactor air strike in 1981 and the alleged SYRIAN nuclear reactor airstrike in 2007. Thus as long as ISRAEL is threatening on a daily base to attack IRAN, and media coverage is in full swing, one can be sure that no such strike is imminent, for the element of surprise is lost. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>THE KEY FACTOR FOR ISRAEL’S DECISION MAKING: IRAN’S “PRESENCE” IN SYRIA</b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">The minute ISRAEL and the media stop mentioning air strikes against IRAN that is the time one should become concerned, for that is the time when an attack is most likely to occur. For the time being the saber rattling are geopolitical tactics. Nevertheless, the chances of Israel launching an airstrike against IRAN’S nuclear facilities are unlikely, especially with IRAN’S “presence” in SYRIA and SYRIA’S Bio-Chemical arsenal at its disposal. Current rhetoric’s by ISRAEL, USA and IRAN are primarily here to reshuffle the geopolitical landscape as well as counteract the current geostrategic shift occurring in the region due to new findings of natural resources and increased power struggle between Sunni and Shiite  Muslims as well as TURKEYS increased muscle flexing in order to become the key player in the region.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>SUDDEN SWITCH IN US TACTICS REGARDING SYRIA: CLAIMING THAT SYRIA’S BIO – CHEMICAL WEAPONS NEED URGENT ATTENTION, MORE THAN NUCLEAR IRAN! </b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9JQz1vFtPCIMSGXLVfVtjYg54izwSECW1v5ormOa-OmI4m-AeJC4HVWeZpFsaKwmLEhwX8NGYWtmmLBjcueu2y1qY_AIJRaDclF_S5nXxylqDUgKfOAb5zSh_zT6Q28uKKpCjJYbFHMbc/s1600/kafr_aakkar_missile_silos.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9JQz1vFtPCIMSGXLVfVtjYg54izwSECW1v5ormOa-OmI4m-AeJC4HVWeZpFsaKwmLEhwX8NGYWtmmLBjcueu2y1qY_AIJRaDclF_S5nXxylqDUgKfOAb5zSh_zT6Q28uKKpCjJYbFHMbc/s400/kafr_aakkar_missile_silos.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;">Kafr Aakkar missile silos</span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>EXCLUSIVE: OBAMA WEIGHS ACTION TO PREVENT AL QAEDA GRABBING SYRIAN WMD </b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;">Via debkafile</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;">US President Barack Obama, though widely expected to pursue direct action against SYRIAN ruler Bashar following the Houla atrocity, is preoccupied with what he regards as a greater threat to the world: a potential grab for the huge SYRIAN stock of chemical and biological weapons by AL QAEDA’S or other terrorist organizations. This is reported exclusively by debkafile’s Washington and intelligence sources.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/given-fact-syria-does-possess-chemical.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/given-fact-syria-does-possess-chemical.html</a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br />The US president is trying to persuade RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin to accept his new plan for the immediate assignment by the UN Security Council of 3,000 armed monitors to SYRIA to take charge of the six chemical and biological stores. Another 2,000 will join the team later.<br />To allay Putin’s suspicions of a trick to insert Western armed forces into SYRIA against Moscow’s will, Obama suggested that most of the monitors would be RUSSIAN or nationals of governments lining up with its support of the Assad regime.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br />Our sources learn that, in one of the conversations between the two presidents, Obama commented: “If only one barrel of anthrax reaches the hands of a Caucasian terrorist group, RUSSIAN will face its greatest terrorist threat in its history. Millions of RUSSIANS may perish.”<br />It was clear from this comment that Assad’s WMD are not stored as warheads, bombs or shells but kept in large barrels or kegs in six underground bunkers, holding Sarin (GB), Tabun (GA) and VX nerve gases, some four kinds of mustard gas and anthrax. The storage silos are spread out among Al Safir, the main SYRIAN missile base in the north; Cerin, a biological research center on the Mediterranean shore; military facilities at Hama and Homs; the SYRIAN naval base leased to the RUSSIANS at Latakia;  and Palmyra, on the highway between Homs and Aleppo.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i><span style="color: #3333ff;">Comment by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring: There seems to be a discrepancy on intelligence information regarding SYRIA’S Bio – Chemical weapons. Debkafile claims that these WMD are stored in barrels. Other intelligence sources however concur that SYRIA possessed a considerable amount of bio – chemical warheads, bombs and shells in addition to barrel storage.</span></i></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i><span style="color: #3333ff;">  </span></i></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqUNUZkt3x99Q7iDmtod84t4sIAAdrDgHfLld-Mz5VpU1ZX3tH4w_hGBkpW-trjZb-t9RY8OxqVj782_OKURoFhpHHxmWz9_OavOaOmZoQxfP4UdPkv9RtGKbtCwZOjzJOh8e06psBUavP/s1600/el_safir_details.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqUNUZkt3x99Q7iDmtod84t4sIAAdrDgHfLld-Mz5VpU1ZX3tH4w_hGBkpW-trjZb-t9RY8OxqVj782_OKURoFhpHHxmWz9_OavOaOmZoQxfP4UdPkv9RtGKbtCwZOjzJOh8e06psBUavP/s640/el_safir_details.jpg" width="256" /></a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i><span style="color: #3333ff;"></span></i></b><b></b>According to the information reaching US intelligence, three of these locations are situated in heavily embattled areas between the SYRIAN army and rebels, in addition to which, in the last two weeks, al Qaeda elements have penetrated the war-torn districts with a view to seizing some of the WMD stores.<br />Obama warned Putin that the jihadists have never been so close to getting hold of large quantities of such deadly unconventional weapons, especially now that the SYRIAN army’s 4th Division, commanded by Assad’s brother Maher, which guards those stores, is additionally assigned with suppressing the revolt and therefore inadequately manned for securing them.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;">If the RUSSIAN President buys his plan for 5,000 international monitors to take over the security assignment, Obama hopes he will also persuade Assad and even Tehran to accept it.<br />Early Thursday, May 31, the US president held a video-conference call on the subject with GERMAN Chancellor Angela Merkel, FRENCH President Francois Hollande and ITALIAN Prime Minister Mario Monti, to brief them on his initiative and his talks with Putin.<br />Debkafile’s sources in Washington and Jerusalem add that Obama also sent personal messages to ISRAELI Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak warning them that if al Qaeda or any other terrorist groups get hold of these weapons of death, they could be smuggled into the West Bank and Gaza Strip. “ISRAEL would be their number one target,” he said.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br />These messages were relayed to ISRAELI leaders this week through visiting senior US intelligence and government figures, with the president’s assessment that the danger of SYRIAN WMD falling into terrorist hands was now more acute than a nuclear IRAN.<br />It provided the context for the IDF’s OC Northern Command Maj. Gen. Yair Golan’s remark Wednesday: <b>“Within weeks or months we may face al Qaeda attacks from SYRIA.”</b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;">The RUSSIAN president has not yet given Obama his answer, still suspecting an AMERICAN ruse for placing Western troops inside SYRIA. Hence his spokesman’s statement Wednesday: “RUSSIA is not considering changing its stance on SYRIA and any attempts to apply pressure on Moscow are hardly appropriate.”</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;">Tehran, taking this to mean that Putin has not rejected Obama’s proposal, was put out enough for a forceful threat: “Western intervention in SYRIA would result in a regional upheaval that would undoubtedly engulf ISRAEL," said IRANIAN parliament speaker Ali Larijani. “It would spread to Palestine and ash rising from the flames would definitely engulf the Zionist regime…US military officials should be aware of their dangerous game.”<br />This was taken by sources in Washington as an IRANIAN threat to burn ISRAEL if Obama’s plan to post 5,000 armed monitors in SYRIA goes through. IRANIAN sources told debkafile that the threat was aimed equally at deterring Putin from cooperating with it.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br />Susan Rice, the US ambassador to the UN, capped these veiled messages by warning the UN <i>Security Council Wednesday night: “This becomes a proxy conflict with arms flowing in from all sides. And members of this Council and members of the international community are left with the option only of having to consider whether they are prepared to take actions outside of the Annan plan and the authority of this Council.”</i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i> </i><br />By these words, the White House informed the Kremlin that if President Putin rejects Obama’s plan for posting 5,000 monitors in SYRIA, Washington will feel free to bypass the UN and the RUSSIAN veto and launch US-WESTERN armed action in SYRIA in defiance of Moscow.</span></div>

ISRAEL and IRAN

AIRSTRIKE UNLIKELY  In recent past mainstream media and ISRAEL itself stipulates that it is pushing for a preemptive airstrike on IRAN. Look...

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Elearning and global competency #flatclass #globaled 06/04/2012

<ul class="diigo-linkroll"> <li> <p class="diigo-link"> <a href="http://learningandsharingwithmsl.blogspot.ca/2012/06/flat-classroom-project.html">Learning and Sharing with Ms. Lirenman: Flat Classroom Project</a> </p> <p class="diigo-description">My #flatclass experience blog. http://t.co/43zok9Yo TY @coolcatteacher @julielindsay @DebPih @tdallen5 #sd36learn #bclearns #globaled</p> <p class="diigo-tags"> <span>tags:</span> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/flatclass">flatclass</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/sd36learn">sd36learn</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/bclearns">bclearns</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/globaled">globaled</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/twitter">twitter</a></p> </li> </ul><p class="diigo-ps">Posted from <a href='http://www.diigo.com'>Diigo</a>. The rest of my favorite links are <a href='http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher'>here</a>.</p>

Elearning and global competency #flatclass #globaled 06/04/2012

Learning and Sharing with Ms. Lirenman: Flat Classroom Project My #flatclass experience blog. http:...

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Standing on my own two feet

Yesterday wasn't a perfect day, but it was a much better exercise and food day than I've had in the past month.<br /><br />Even though I didn't make it to the gym, I still burned over 2500 calories according to my BodyMedia (which I'm wearing again). I worked in the yard, specifically, I pulled weeds and planted flowers. I use to love working in the yard. The feeling of a weed-free flower bed and beautiful flowers planted by my own hand always delighted me in the past.<br /><br />Yesterday, as I was on my hands and knees pulling up stubborn weeds, with every part of my body aching, I kept asking myself "why did I ever think gardening was fun?". It's hard work, and getting up from being in an on all-fours position when I weigh 208 pounds was particularly painful. A few times I thought I might not be able to get up. Which made me realize just how quickly my body has fallen apart. The lesson learned is that if I don't take care of my body, it won't be able to take care of me. It was an eye-opening experience. <br /><br />Even though I'm almost 57 (in August) I've never felt old in my entire life. I always thought I felt and looked younger than the number of years I'd been on this earth. I was able to pull that off with only spurts of exercise during my life until I hit my fifties. Then I realized daily exercise wasn't optional anymore. Once I hit 50 my entire body changed and not for the better either. I think Cher said it best in an interview with Oprah a few years ago about getting old (Cher was 61 at the time). It sucks.<br /><br />Since I have no desire to end up disabled from my own stupid neglect of my body, it's time I get serious about taking care of myself. There's no guarantees I still won't end up in a wheelchair, but why throw the odds in the favor of being disabled. I have enough bad stuff in my genetic makeup to make that happen without me adding to it. The odds are already against me due to a history of strokes in the women of my family (two aunts on my mother's side, my mother and my sister). <br /><br />The threat of not being able to stand up on my own two feet or get up if I fall are certainly motivators for living a healthy lifestyle. Never mind being able to fit into my jeans, which would be nice, but  being able to walk when I'm in my eighties would even nicer.<br /><br />Plans for today<br />My husband is in Denver this weekend (he was there last weekend too). His dad is in the hospital due to severe emphysema. My father-in-law's smoking is the direct cause of his emphysema. He'll be on an oxygen tank the rest of his life, but at 78 and in poor health, the rest of his life probably isn't going to be much longer. My husband said his dad keeps saying he feels like he's not getting any oxygen even though they're giving him as much as possible. It's a very sad situation.<br /><br />That reminds me, I'm not sure if I ever mentioned it, but my sister and brother-in-law smoked for over 40 years. If you remember, my brother had a major heart attack two years ago and died suddenly at 73. My sister's doctors said the smoking probably contributed to her stroke. Even though both of them had quit smoking 15 years ago, and had been going to the gym daily for the previous four years, the damage to their bodies had already been done. Dying suddenly was awful for my brother-in-law, but the stroke my sister had is a fate worse than death. Not that I'm telling you anything you don't already know. Just something to think about if you're a  smoker. <br /><br />Sunday is always my day with my sister. I'm still not sure if the weather is going to hold out for the zoo and aquarium. The forecast for this afternoon is only partly cloudy versus how it looks right now, which is very cloudy and dark. Either the zoo or a movie and lunch. Depends on the weather.<br /><br />The main exhibit at the Tacoma Art Museum is GLBT centric erotic art. I don't have a problem with the GLBT thing, just not sure if my sister is up to seeing erotic art of any kind (my sister is 73). Still, the paintings are by Andy Warhol, Georgia O'Keefe (love her stuff), and some other very famous artists so it's still a possibility.<br /><br />Funny thing about Georgia O'Keefe, I had some large, framed prints of hers in my living room for years. I loved them. They were of giant flowers and I thought they were just beautiful. I never thought of them as erotic, I just thought they were pretty. I read some articles on Georgia yesterday and the critics were saying her flower artwork was erotic. What? Who thinks up this stuff? It's just pretty paintings of flowers. Maybe the art museum is still a good idea. GLBT erortic art. Right. That's just someone's interpretation of the art. I suspect I'll think differently.<br /><br />Before I pick up my sister, I have to quickly clean up the house since I neglected it yesterday in favor of the yard. Then I have to pick my husband up at the airport at 7pm. It's going to be a busy day!<br /><br />Today I will stay focused on healthy eating and being active, knowing that everything I do now will help me remain healthy for the rest of my life. It will help me to continue to stand on my own two feet.<br /><br /><br />

Standing on my own two feet

Yesterday wasn't a perfect day, but it was a much better exercise and food day than I've had in the past month. Even though I didn&#...

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SYRIA, ISRAEL, IRAN AND THE USA

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font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} </style><![endif]--> <br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCXQwM06r0uu9atswWbvsWQec_DsHCW9YsqsJr8IiChoIT5v5iXtHo2noq5oyKz3T8MRV-ybnVJQKd0DTTEEEI0dZWsEkkcdKuJhyphenhyphengB5pcr572F996_6Id0ylUpZWFXe5RpRt-EGJfLFqf/s1600/120048436sceninc.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCXQwM06r0uu9atswWbvsWQec_DsHCW9YsqsJr8IiChoIT5v5iXtHo2noq5oyKz3T8MRV-ybnVJQKd0DTTEEEI0dZWsEkkcdKuJhyphenhyphengB5pcr572F996_6Id0ylUpZWFXe5RpRt-EGJfLFqf/s320/120048436sceninc.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">THE SYRIAN EQUATION </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Unlike in LIBYA, this time around RUSSIA and CHINA (See:<a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/china-and-syria.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/china-and-syria.html</a>) will not tolerate to be left out of the equation as was the case with the toppling of the LIBYAN regime and subsequent oil bonanza shared by FRANCE, the UK and the USA, thus the USA is cautious and uncertain on how to proceed with SYRIA, for fear of CHINESE and RUSSIAN retribution. As for the EUROPEAN UNION, as always, the union is rather aimless on how to proceed with the SYRIAN cause. It seems EUROPE is even more unaware of the consequences, a full out civil war will have for the region and that by no means the suffering will end with a new regime in place. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">The UK supports the so-called one man show opposition “group”, “<b>Syrian Observatory for Human Rights</b>” in London, simply because of the large SYRIAN community living in London. See: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Observatory_for_Human_Rights">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Observatory_for_Human_Rights</a>and because of <b>Rifaat Ali al-Assad</b><span>. See: <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/syria-switching-perception.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/syria-switching-perception.html</a>, </span>Chapter title: <b>Internal power struggle</b>.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">FRANCE, though once the “protégé” of SYRIA, simply lacks the financial needs to become fully involved in a military intervention and thus prefers to uses strong rhetoric’s instead, (as of recent, telling RUSSIA bluntly that Assad has to go), but without substance. GERMANY on the other hand has to avoid of being drawn into the conflict because of its economic ties with SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN, ISRAEL, CHINA and RUSSIA.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">NOT HAVING LEARNED THE LESSON FROM IRAQ, OR CALCULATED STRATEGY?</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Regime change in SYRIA will certainly end in full out civil war as was the case in IRAQ. The question still remains as to why the orchestrated revolt in SYRIA was initiated in the first place? If it was indeed one of the USA intelligence agencies who encouraged the revolt, one has to question if the USA has not learned from its ventures in IRAQ. Or does the USA have a hidden agenda that has been kept under wraps from the rest of the world? In most likelihood not, because in IRAQ the USA also was under the false perception that toppling Saddam Hussein would be viewed by the local population as an act of liberation and turn them into an US alley. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>USA SUDDENLY VOICES CONCERNS OF RADICAL ISLAMIC GROUPS TAKING OVER THE RAINS IN SYRIA AND WITH THAT THE BIO – CHEMICAL WEAPONS ARSENAL, ONCE ASSAD IS GONE? A BIT LATE FOR SUCH CONCERNS, ONE COULD ARGUE! </b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">With a regime change in SYRIA imminent, the USA suddenly voices concerns that Al Qaida and other Islamic extremist groups will take over the rains in SYRIA and that the vast amount of Biological and chemical weapons SYRIA possesses will fall in the hands of such terrorist groups. This assumption seems to come a bit late one would say. It was crystal clear from the beginning that once the revolt started; different Islamic Fundamentalist fractions would infiltrate the revolt in order to gain their own leverage, something the USA and other entities promoting the removal of the Assad regime should have been aware of from the beginning. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDP-Fm76QRktP8e9XLUuhW2pp06Gin9TKXSyStIEfSTcK3Mdzii2kM09HlRigpa5p_cibplZfwqRgFdxFk9Bq7Yq7Sexll_fax71fMFKxdwpM_KN623mkIv0e24VOJQD8PVZ7Ex-5N2Izt/s1600/pg39.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDP-Fm76QRktP8e9XLUuhW2pp06Gin9TKXSyStIEfSTcK3Mdzii2kM09HlRigpa5p_cibplZfwqRgFdxFk9Bq7Yq7Sexll_fax71fMFKxdwpM_KN623mkIv0e24VOJQD8PVZ7Ex-5N2Izt/s640/pg39.gif" width="579" /></a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">UNPREDICTABLE REACTION FROM THE ASSAD CLAN IF CORNERED<span>  </span></span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring indicated numerous times that SYRIA’S arsenal of Bio-Chemical weapons pose a threat to the entire region, if falling into the wrong hands. On the other hand no one knows how Assad will react if he is pushed into the corner and realizes that his and his clan’s downfall is sealed. <span> </span>See also:</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/syrian-missiles-will-pre-empt-any.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/syrian-missiles-will-pre-empt-any.html</a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/given-fact-syria-does-possess-chemical.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/given-fact-syria-does-possess-chemical.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">INCREASED IRANIAN INFLUENCE IN SYRIA PROVOKED ISRAEL TO CHANGE ITS LONGSTANDING TACTICS REGARDING SYRIA </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Adding to the riddle of the SYRIAN revolt and the media PSY-OPS warfare surrounding the tumult, is ISRAEL’S stance on encouraging the toppling of the SYRIAN government. As mentioned numerous times on this Blog, the two countries are technically speaking still at war, the frontier between ISRAEL and SYRIA has been the quietest one for decades simply because the Assad Regime was a predictable entity for the ISRAELIS and Assad maintained a status quo, using harsh anti ISRAEL rhetoric’s in order to portray ISRAEL as the evil of all evil, thus giving his people the distraction needed to diverge them from internal issues and at the same time justify the emergency law and totalitarian ruling, but refrained from a direct confrontation with ISRAEL. So why did ISRAEL, after years of maintain a status quo with SYRIA change its strategy?</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">IRAN AT THE DOORSTEPS OF ISRAEL</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">One explanation for ISRAEL’S shift in tactics could be the fact that SYRIA, over the last couple of years has been increasing its ties with IRAN to a point where ISRAEL has become under direct threat from IRAN, who, thanks to its close relationship with SYRIA is now at the doorsteps of ISRAEL, something the Jewish state, for obvious reasons, cannot tolerate and thus had to drop its previous strategy on SYRIA in order to counteract IRAN’S advances, even if it meant to provoke a civil war in SYRIA after the regime change. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">FOR BETTER FOR WORST </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">Most probably ISRAEL has weighed its options and came to the conclusion that a Sunni dominated regime in SYRIA is preferable to that of a SHIITE one, which is increasingly dominated by IRANIAN entities, just 40km from its current eastern frontier as well as <span>Hezbollah</span> on its northern frontier, thus being almost entirely encircled by Iranian proxies. Sunni dominance in SYRIA, with the help of SAUDI ARABIA would also be a preferred scenario for ISRAEL because of its close, yet unofficial ties to <b>Wahhabi SAUDI ARABIA</b>. <span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: large;">(Note:Unconfirmed sources claim the Royal house of SAUD has Jewish roots</span>.)</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;"><br /></span></span></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a 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</style><![endif]--><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Israel used Saudi airspace to strike IRAQI nuclear reactor in 1981 </span></span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% yellow;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">ISRAEL COPING WITH A FULL SCALE CIVIL WAR IN SYRIA</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">With not many options at hand, ISRAEL is most probably willing to take the calculated risk in supporting the SYRIAN Sunni opposition, fully aware that with a regime change, its neighboring country will end up in a full scale civil war, something ISRAEL already encountered and coped with successfully, during the LEBANESE civil war, which lasted from 1975 to 1990.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">The fact that the entire SYRIAN conflict is a rather dubious one, which is dominated by “media warfare”, is also reflected in a recent Debkafile article (read article below) in which allegedly a FRANCO - SAUDI plan promoted <span style="line-height: 115%;">massive air strike against Assads presidential palace situated atop Mount Qassioun northwest of Damascus, that would at one “fell swoop” wipe him, his family and top leadership circle out. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaM3MEhNnxDgjGVRMdMD-ld-HUbKlyNizg_ii6_e6g7f5PWGKRcLYX9gExWw4UNoOlQaywoUgK59o0smEqjcssch1a3wPCpV7S8lgBxrya0OrLMh4TdTaHdBELjMaGm2A3bktTDMKO5c4J/s1600/damdire.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaM3MEhNnxDgjGVRMdMD-ld-HUbKlyNizg_ii6_e6g7f5PWGKRcLYX9gExWw4UNoOlQaywoUgK59o0smEqjcssch1a3wPCpV7S8lgBxrya0OrLMh4TdTaHdBELjMaGm2A3bktTDMKO5c4J/s400/damdire.jpg" width="400" /></a></span></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">(Debkafile wrongly states the palace is located northeast when in fact it is northwest of the city )</span></span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">INTELLIGENCE OR PSY –OPS?</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">If indeed these allegations are true (and not again a psy –ops war style “misinformation insert”), one has to seriously question the ability of the intelligence sources that provided such information. It is wishful thinking that</span> Bashar Hafez al-Assad, and his family reside at the presidential palace.<span style="line-height: 115%;"> Just like his father </span>Hafez al-Assad in the past, Bashar Assad and his family reside at different locations downtown Damascus and surrounding areas. Even if they would stay at the presidential palace, SAUDI FRENCH airstrikes would hardy cause serious damage to the vast bunker system stretching within Mount Qassiun, unless the USA would provide more sophisticated bombing devices that can knock out underground facilities. Furthermore the palace itself is constructed of bomb resisting concrete. Interesting to note is that the palace was paid for primarily by the SAUDIS, designed by a JAPANESE architect, built by a series of foreign contractors, among them a GERMAN construction company specialized in building bomb resisting bunker systems and buildings.<span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Or is it in the end also about alleged large scale oil shale findings in Syria?</b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">See also: <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2011/08/saudia-arabia-usa-turkey-versus-iran.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2011/08/saudia-arabia-usa-turkey-versus-iran.html</a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2011/12/syria-cause-and-effect.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2011/12/syria-cause-and-effect.html</a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2011/12/as-i-see-it.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2011/12/as-i-see-it.html</a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/01/strait-of-hormuz-and-syria.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/01/strait-of-hormuz-and-syria.html</a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><span style="font-size: large;">The Debkafile article reads as follows: </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><i><span style="color: blue;">OBAMA NIXES FRENCH-SAUDI PLAN TO FINISH ASSAD BY BOMBING HIS PALACE</span></i></b><i><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></i><i><span style="color: blue;">Via DEBKA<span>file</span></span></i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i><span style="color: blue;"><span> </span></span></i><i><span style="color: blue;"></span></i><b><i><span style="color: blue;"></span></i></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i><span style="color: blue;">US President Obama recently vetoed a detailed Franco-Saudi plan for ending President Bashar Assad’s rule by means of a massive air strike against his palace that would at one fell swoop wipe him, his family and top leadership circle out, debkafile’s military and intelligence sources report.</span></i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i><span style="color: blue;">Their plan was for the presidential palace situated atop Mount Qassioun northeast of Damascus to be devastated by French warplanes taking off from the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier off Syria’s Mediterranean coast and Saudi and United Arab Emirates bombers flying in through Jordan.<br />They would bomb the palace for 12 hours in several sorties while at the same time American fighter jets launched from a US aircraft carrier cruising in the Mediterranean or Red Sea would shut down Syria’s air defenses, which are considered among the most sophisticated and densely-arrayed in the region.<br />US warplanes would also keep the Syrian Air Force grounded and prevented from repulsing the incoming bombers.</span></i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i><span style="color: blue;">This plan was presented to President Obama separately by Nicolas Sarkozy before he was voted out of office and Saudi Defense Minister Prince Salman, who arrived at the White House on April 12 for a personal presentation. The prince maintained that there is no end in sight for the Syrian conflict; it would only spread and ignite the rest of the Middle East. The peril could only be rooted out at source by a single, sharp military strike that would remove Assad and his close clan for good. This would be the only acceptable kind of Western-Arab armed intervention in Syria and it had the added advantage of being effective without bringing foreign boots to Syrian soil.</span></i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i><span style="color: blue;">In early May, Sarkozy was still trying to talk Obama around to the plan. He spent his last days in the Elysée Palace in long telephone conversations with the White House in which he drove home three points:</span></i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i><span style="color: blue;">1.  Because Assad has concentrated his family, top military command and intelligence chiefs at a single nerve center behind the fortified walls of the Qassioun Palace, the snake’s head can feasibly be cut off at one stroke.<br />The case of Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi was different because, unlike Assad, he never stayed long in one place and was constantly on the move.</span></i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i><span style="color: blue;"> 2. Once that nerve center is destroyed, Syrian army and intelligence would be bereft of their sources of command. Their troops may remain in their bases and wait for news, while their officers may use the sudden political vacuum in Damascus to try and seize power. In either case, the Syrian military would be free of its orders to crush the anti-Assad revolt.</span></i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i><span style="color: blue;"><br />3.  The French, Saudi and UAE air forces lack a central command center capable of coordinating a major combined air operation and therefore depend on the United States to provide this essential component. American military input is also vital for paralyzing Syria’s air defenses by applying its cyber warfare capabilities to disrupt the radar systems of Syria’s anti-air missile batteries.</span></i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i><span style="color: blue;"><br />Our Washington sources report that Obama consistently resisted repeated French and Saudi efforts to jump aboard their initiative.<br />The Saudi defense minister at one point in their conversation told the US president harshly that it was time for the Americans to stop talking and start acting. But Obama remained unmoved.<br />These events, revealed here by debkafile, provide the background for Presidents Barak Obama and Francois Hollande’s divergent responses Tuesday, May 29, to the al-Houla atrocity and its 108 brutally murdered victims.</span></i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i><span style="color: blue;"><br />The White House repeated its objection to military intervention in Syria “at this time,” because it would only “increase the carnage.” A military option was left on the table.</span></i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Times,"Times New Roman",serif; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i><span style="color: blue;">That was standard Obama-speak for the crisis in Syria, behind which he remains determined to stay out of armed action for unseating President Assad and instead seek a deal with the Russians on the Syrian ruler’s fate as part and parcel of a comprehensive accord on Syria and Iran’s nuclear program.<br />President Hollande was at first quoted as saying he does not rule out armed intervention in Syria. Elysée sources later watered down this statement with the qualifier: …”only with UN Security Council approval.”<br />On top of the American hurdle, Moscow and Beijing rushed Wednesday, May 30, to reiterate that they would oppose (veto) any Security Council resolution authorizing military intervention in Syria, so effectively nipping the French intention in the bud.<br />Bashar Assad accordingly had no qualms about sending UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan off empty-handed from a final bid to salvage his peace mission: The world powers have left him sitting pretty in his palace, unconcerned about his future and free to pursue one of the most vicious anti-opposition campaigns of modern times.</span></i></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div>

SYRIA, ISRAEL, IRAN AND THE USA

THE SYRIAN EQUATION  Unlike in LIBYA, this time around RUSSIA and CHINA (See: http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/china-and-syri...

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The First Daguerrotype Of A Human Being

<br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">March 7, 1839,</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">            </span>a tall man wearing a hat</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">            </span>got a shoe shine </div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">            </span>on a Paris street.</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">We know this because</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">            </span>Daguerre standing at a distance</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">            </span>captured this, his first human form,</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">            </span>on a silvered copper plate.</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">The tall man getting a shoe shine</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">            </span>appears not to have noticed </div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">            </span>– taken unawares.</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">Perhaps the street </div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">            </span>hummed, sang, rattled</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">            </span>with people scurrying,</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">            </span>ambling, proceeding apace.</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">But that is at best</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">            </span>a reasonable surmise,</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">            </span>a likely conjecture,</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">            </span>a mere supposition.</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">We do not know because</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">            </span>if they were there,</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">            </span>they were moving and so </div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">            </span>invisible to Daguerre’s camera.</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">Only the tall man </div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">            </span>wearing a hat</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">            </span>getting his shoes shined</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">            </span>on a Paris street</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">stood still long enough</div><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">            </span>to become immortal. </div>

The First Daguerrotype Of A Human Being

March 7, 1839,             a tall man wearing a hat             got a shoe shine             on a Paris street. We know this because        ...

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CHINA AND SYRIA

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font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} </style><![endif]--> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #134f5c; line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSFT-1pqTnEzCdOMeil7x4Vjriik794UipGUWqHx-S6c25pS2oCztH5RXdiny6LL1j7oKb2FpUPLw0qnVOJz7S0bVb4Zvbgqxt0qVix7ONZU1hTBEcisp1OK45am-kKRt9Cr-tGWpXUojC/s1600/China-Syria.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSFT-1pqTnEzCdOMeil7x4Vjriik794UipGUWqHx-S6c25pS2oCztH5RXdiny6LL1j7oKb2FpUPLw0qnVOJz7S0bVb4Zvbgqxt0qVix7ONZU1hTBEcisp1OK45am-kKRt9Cr-tGWpXUojC/s1600/China-Syria.jpg" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #134f5c; line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #134f5c; line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">CAN CHINA HELP SAVE SYRIA?</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-outline-level: 2; tab-stops: 105.0pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">By Joel Wuthnow</span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span>              </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">As the international community considers how to respond to the recent massacre of 108 civilians in the SYRIAN town of Houla, many eyes are focused on the position of RUSSIA. This makes sense, given Moscow’s strategic interests in SYRIA, and its reluctance to approve international sanctions in the past. Yet attention should also be given to attitudes in CHINA, which not only holds a permanent seat at the U.N. Security Council, but also has significant economic leverage at its disposal.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">It’s understandable that observers, including Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, should encourage the Obama administration to redouble its pressure on Moscow. RUSSIA, after all, is the SYRIAN government’s top arms supplier, and maintains a link to the MEDITERRANEAN through its naval base at Tartus.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">CHINA’S OVERALL STAKES IN THE SYRIAN ECONOMY SURPASS THOSE OF RUSSIA</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">But RUSSIA isn’t the only great power with significant interests in SYRIA – CHINA also deserves mention. Indeed, CHINA’S overall stakes in the SYRIAN economy surpass those of RUSSIA. In 2011, SYRIA imported at least $2.4 Billion in goods from CHINA. Imports from RUSSIA were less than $1.9 Billion. CHINA’S trade is facilitated, in part, by a SYRIAN - CHINESE Businessmen Council, formed after Assad’s inaugural visit to CHINA in 2004.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">CHINA HOLDS LARGE EQUITIES IN SYRIA’S OIL INDUSTRY</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Perhaps more importantly, CHINA holds large equities in SYRIA’S oil industry. The CHINA National Petroleum Corporation holds minority stakes in two of SYRIA’S largest petroleum companies, and has signed multi-billion dollar deals to assist in the exploration and development of SYRIA’S oil producing regions. CHINA has also stepped in as an important consumer of SYRIAN oil in the aftermath of an EU embargo.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Might CHINA be willing to break with RUSSIA and support an elevation of pressure on SYRIA, such as sanctions or even an International Criminal Court indictment for individual perpetrators?</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The answer depends on two factors. One is the situation on the ground. Continued bloodshed not only poses a grave humanitarian challenge, it also jeopardizes CHINA’S economic interests and the lives of any remaining CHINESE citizens in the country. As a result, further violence may give CHINA’S leaders doubts about the viability of a hands-off approach. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">COLLAPSE OF THE ASSAD REGIME WILL LEAD TO A DESTABILIZING POWER VACUUM</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The problem with this argument is that CHINESE officials and experts are concerned that a potential collapse of the Assad regime will lead to a destabilizing power vacuum. One Middle East expert that I talked with in Beijing, who had received delegations from the SYRIAN opposition, reported that he was not convinced that the opposition would be able to form a sustainable unity government, and that instability in a post-Assad SYRIA may precipitate a wider regional conflict.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Similarly, in contrast to LIBYA, Beijing has retained positive ties with the Assad regime. It was arguably easier for the U.S. to enlist CHINA'S support against Gaddafi, who had alienated CHINA just as he had alienated states in the region, than against Assad. For these reasons, CHINA will be even more reluctant to embrace regime change, or even policies that may result in a collapse of the regime. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgypF-zWfAwG2obNLIezVlso8kPYv-Eo750lNXDmrk2YWpudd5nUtLEZlsYI5PcjGg585_qbAmDgJr5HSLjpGf_qX7PiNlDOyV9NUJZkgbav6D6AzU0qBIO9oEcK5qPkXPeDYIFKSfhqhez/s1600/syrianrussianchineseflag138301017.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgypF-zWfAwG2obNLIezVlso8kPYv-Eo750lNXDmrk2YWpudd5nUtLEZlsYI5PcjGg585_qbAmDgJr5HSLjpGf_qX7PiNlDOyV9NUJZkgbav6D6AzU0qBIO9oEcK5qPkXPeDYIFKSfhqhez/s320/syrianrussianchineseflag138301017.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">axis of evil or counterbalance?</td></tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The second factor is the political costs associated with shielding the regime. CHINA has already encountered regional opposition. During the Security Council’s deliberation on a draft resolution aimed at the violence in SYRIA in February, CHINA’S U.N. ambassador found himself surrounded by delegates from the Arab world urging his government to abstain, and not use the veto. To the surprise of some Western observers, CHINA ultimately did use the veto.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">There has been comparatively little pressure on Beijing from Washington, London, Paris and other Western governments. With attention focused on RUSSIA, and with Beijing’s support needed on a raft of other issues, including NORTH KOREA and IRAN, there hasn’t been a sustained effort to convince CHINA that international pressure is necessary to alleviate the suffering in SYRIA.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">STEM VIOLENCE AGAINST CIVILIANS AND AVOID A COLLAPSE OF THE REGIME SEEMS TO BE A GOAL SHARED BY THE U.S., WHICH IS SIMILARLY SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE SYRIAN OPPOSITION</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Might such a campaign be effective? It’s certainly possible.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> The message to Beijing should be twofold. First, coercion, when done properly, may be able to stem violence against civilians and avoid a collapse of the regime, a goal shared by the U.S., which is similarly skeptical about the SYRIAN opposition. A case must be made to CHINA that any U.N. resolution, or other types of multilateral action, aren’t aimed at regime change, but at preventing further atrocities by the government or government-directed militias.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Second is that a willingness to use its economic and political interests will accrue diplomatic goodwill to CHINA, in the same way that its bilateral interventions with the SUDANESE government over Darfur did. The case of SYRIA – and, in particular, its reaction to the crimes against humanity perpetrated in Houla – offers CHINA an opportunity to prove that it has the intention to play a constructive, and not merely a reactive, role on the world stage. It’s up to the UNITED STATES and its allies to make clear that there are benefits to cooperation, and costs to continued opposition.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">See also next article: <b style="color: blue;">THE SYRIAN EQUATION </b><span style="color: black;">to be published soon</span><b style="color: blue;"><br /></b></span></span></div>

CHINA AND SYRIA

CAN CHINA HELP SAVE SYRIA? By Joel Wuthnow                 As the international community considers how to respond to the recent massacre o...

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