ISRAEL AND IRAN - AIRSTRIKE UNLIKELY

<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwZFqgrq7CVYuav0ntVBpmHS33XtMySdYGsMC5eHRSw5eeKqId-TEykFCiLNlDY04mW6js2USVil0gLw2pD9YdaeYPE1vf6NuefdNrQNCwI6LLRhSBFLhTS15lz1CQvPwdG_xLCCkSAa_e/s1600/Israel-Iran_0013_thumb1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwZFqgrq7CVYuav0ntVBpmHS33XtMySdYGsMC5eHRSw5eeKqId-TEykFCiLNlDY04mW6js2USVil0gLw2pD9YdaeYPE1vf6NuefdNrQNCwI6LLRhSBFLhTS15lz1CQvPwdG_xLCCkSAa_e/s400/Israel-Iran_0013_thumb1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-outline-level: 1;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt;"><br /></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">WHY PROSPECTS OF AN ISRAEL IRAN CONFLICT REMAIN LOW</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">By Gregory R. Copley </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Global security concerns continued to be geared around the possibility of armed conflict between IRAN and ISRAEL, an issue hedged by a range of other conflicts and issues. The actual prospect of such a conflict, however, remained extremely low, for a variety of reasons, despite the near hysteria of media, and even poorly-reasoned reporting from “professional” intelligence agencies.<br /><br /></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Background Information</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">: </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">See: </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">AIRSTRIKE UNLIKELY (posted 4 June 2012)</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/israel-iran-syria.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/israel-iran-syria.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">IRAN ALREADY ACQUIRED AT LEAST TWO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FROM FOREIGN SUPPLIERS </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The ostensible cause of the potential conflict remained the nominal determination of key WESTERN states to ensure that Iran did not acquire the capacity to build nuclear weapons, although even ISRAELI Prime Minister <b>Binyamin Netanyahu</b> has reportedly acknowledged that ISRAEL understood that IRAN had at least two nuclear weapons already deployed on medium-range ballistic missiles. These were weapons, how-ever, acquired from foreign suppliers, not from domestic sources.<br /><br />In reality, the issue is far more complex, and is particularly compounded by:<br /><br /><b style="color: red;">THE FACT THAT THE UNITED STATES IS IN A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEAR</b><span style="color: red;">, </span></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">which traditionally inhibits and distorts Administration decision making, and yet allows for opposition candidates to exercise strenuous — and often ill-informed and inflammatory — rhetorical positions;<br /><br /><b style="color: red;">THE FACT THAT THE IRANIAN DOMESTIC POLITICAL SITUATION IS CLOUDED</b><span style="color: red;">, </span></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">as a result of the Majlis elections which have already severely crimped the influence of incumbent Pres. <b>Mahmud Ahmadi-Nejad</b>, who may soon be eclipsed from power with the end of his term. However, even the present “Supreme Leader”, “Ayatollah” <b>Ali Khamene’i</b>, did not gain as much ground in domestic politics as he would have wished vis-à-vis <b>Ahmadi-Nejad</b>. This leaves power — insofar as it is concentrated at all — largely in the hands of the leader of the <b>Quds Force</b> of the IRANIAN Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC: Pásdárán), Brig. <b>Qassem Suleimani</b>. In any event, all talk of “reformists” in the IRANIAN clerical scene has evaporated. <br /><br /><b style="color: red;">THE REALITY THAT IRAN’S STRATEGIC REACH TO DOMINATE THE PERSIAN GULF AND THE NORTHERN TIER HAS BEEN EXTREMELY SUCCESSFUL</b><span style="color: red;">,</span> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">and this is compounded by the US/Coalition withdrawal from IRAQ, and the de facto strategic withdrawal (certainly du jure in a political sense) from AFGHANISTAN. IRAN has successfully used its influence over Shi’a populations — often regionally in a minority — to effectively control situations. The use by the IRANIAN clerics of the “anti-ISRAEL” jihadist rhetoric to win support from the vast Arab and Muslim populations has, however, failed: the Sunni populations, while buying the anti-ISRAEL line, have not coalesced in support for IRANIAN leadership. And the Sunni leaderships of Sunni-dominated Muslim states have reacted sharply to IRAN’S rhetoric as much as to IRAN’S real strategic grasp on, for example, IRAQ and SYRIA. As a result, </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">THE REAL PRESSURE FOR ACTION AGAINST IRAN — TO CUR-TAIL IRAN’S NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND TO OVERTHROW IRAN’S ‘ALAWITE ALLY IN SYRIA, THE BASHAR AL-ASSAD GOVERNMENT — COMES FROM THOSE WHO MOST FEAR TEHRAN: SAUDI ARABIA, TURKEY, AND QATAR</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">. <b> </b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><b>Significantly, this is not working, except at a public relations level</b>. In SYRIA, despite pressures from the Sunni-dominated <b>Arab League</b> (which excludes non-Arab IRAN), Pres. Assad seems set to continue to dominate the Islamist-led Sunni uprising.<br /><br /><b style="color: red;">THE FACT THAT TURKEY IS NOW FLAILING IN ITS ATTEMPTS TO CURTAIL THE GROWTH OF IRANIAN STRATEGIC REACH</b><span style="color: red;">. </span></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">TURKEY is also now itself becoming isolated at a time when its leader — and the real architect of TURKISH strategic “revival” — Prime Minister <b>Reçep Tayyip Erdogan</b>, is in rapidly-failing health. He is likely to be replaced either by Pres. <b>Abdullah Gül</b> or by Foreign Minister </span><span class="st"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Ahmet Davutoğlu</span></b></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">, both of whom are radical, but neither of whom has domestic political strength of <b>Erdogan</b>. Meanwhile, the ruling Islamists still have not mended their fences with the TURKISH Armed Forces, and TURKEY continues to suffer from an inability to address domestic KURDISH insurgency. If TURKEY alienates IRAN, then IRAN has made it clear that it has the capacity to stimulate activity in TURKEY by that country’s very large (20-million) Shi’a population, as well as stepping aside while KURDS gain more support from abroad. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Background information</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">: See <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-erratic-foreign-policies-all.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-erratic-foreign-policies-all.html</a>and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Turkey">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Turkey</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3284/alawites-syria-alevis-turkey">http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3284/alawites-syria-alevis-turkey</a></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br /><b style="color: red;">THE FACT THAT THE CORE OF THE ISRAELI DEFENSE FORCE (IDF) AND THE ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ARE TOTALLY OPPOSED TO A MILITARY STRIKE AGAINST IRAN’S “NUCLEAR FACILITIES”</b> because they recognize that: <br /><br />(a)They cannot identify or reach all of IRAN’S nuclear facilities; <br /><br />(b)IRAN already has deployed nuclear weapons [probably more than the two known to be deployed on al-Shahab IRBMs] which may have a chance of surviving ISRAEL’S extensive anti-ballistic missile (ABM) network; <br /><br />(c)There are few real options to follow-up an air/missile strike against IRANIAN targets;<br /><br />(d)An ISRAELI first-strike against IRAN would actually coalesce IRANIAN sentiment around the ruling clerics and against ISRAEL; and <br /><br />(e)The UNITED STATES Government would unreservedly oppose an ISRAELI strike. <br /><br /></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">THE PROBABILITY OF A UNILATERAL ISRAELI STRIKE WOULD ONLY OCCUR IF AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT ACTUALLY PRESENTED ITSELF TO ISRAEL</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">What is also not understood by most commentators and foreign governments is the reality that Prime Minister <b>Netanyahu</b> and Defense Minister <b>Ehud Barak</b> have been attempting to persuade the <b>Obama </b>Administration in the US of the desirability of decisive military action against IRAN. This has not been a campaign to tell the US that ISRAEL would act unilaterally against IRAN. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">So what has not been seen is actual evidence of the probability of a unilateral ISRAELI stance, which would only occur if an existential threat actually presented itself to ISRAEL. At present, this is not perceived to be the case, even though Mr. <b>Netanyahu</b> portrays the IRANIAN nuclear weapons situation has being ultimately an existential threat. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The IDF, the ISRAELI Intelligence Community, the ISRAELI opposition parties, and so on, all categorically reject the idea of an ISRAELI first strike at IRANIAN targets, despite acknowledging that elected leaders (<b>Netanyahu, Barak</b>) might try to insist on such an action. But, absent tacit or express US approval for such an action (which even <b>Netanyahu</b>and <b>Barak </b>acknowledge requiring), such an attack would not occur. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">A UNILATERAL ISRAEL AIR STRIKE WOULD BE VIEWED GLOBALLY AS HAVING US SUPPORT </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Moreover, the US Government is aware that any action by ISRAEL — even if it was opposed by the US — would be seen globally as having US support; thus the US is committed to ensuring it does not happen. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The US <b>Obama</b> Administration has intentionally continued to leak reporting which would hamper such a step by ISRAEL, even “disclosing” that ISRAEL had arranged for the use of bases in AZERBAIJAN to stage air attacks into or exiting IRAN. That was a canard: the use of AZERBAIJANI facilities and air space was considered some years ago when ISRAEL had access to TURKISH air space, which would be essential to allowing access into and from AZERBAIJAN. That is no longer feasible. <b>However, US reports that ISRAEL lacked the reach or technical capability to undertake a first strike against IRAN are incorrect. ISRAEL has this capacity</b>.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b style="color: red;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">THE PERSIAN-ISRAELI LINK HAS BEEN MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL FOR TWO-AND-A-HALF MILLENNIA</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br /><br />The reality that the PERSIAN-ISRAELI link has been mutually beneficial for two-and-a-half millennia, and the recent IRANIAN clerical rhetoric against ISRAEL was for tactical purposes, although, in fact, reflecting the radical interpretation of Shi’ism and Islam by the clerics. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ISRAEL has what IRAN/PERSIA has always valued: access to the Mediterranean</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">. This is why IRAN courts or attempts to control SYRIA and LEBANON, but ISRAEL is what cements, or could cement, IRANIAN reach into the Mediterranean, and such a relationship also gives ISRAEL the ability to outmaneuver the Sunni populations which constrain it. Tehran escalated the anti-ISRAEL posture to maneuver against the US during the US-led war on IRAQ; now it must find a way to back down from this position (and likewise ISRAEL must find a way to retract from its reactive anti-IRANIAN stance) so that a rapprochement can be re-developed. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">SAUDI ARABIA — ENGAGE IN COVERT “INFORMATION SHARING” WITH ISRAEL, IN ORDER TO BOOST ISRAEL’S HOSTILITY TOWARDS IRAN </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg889xpeJSbeJjRt4yC9UkpvatWWsK_pYdK1TGYlSc-izcCSEW9xC2TjPr3TsqBuLxiHTFksWHxExK5sPKOCIq0vXcvRri5kongb92i3HD-ZqFLEU5P9MO0CBgJQEcPm_vy7sUDaZjiLOKT/s1600/280px-OsirakLocation.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg889xpeJSbeJjRt4yC9UkpvatWWsK_pYdK1TGYlSc-izcCSEW9xC2TjPr3TsqBuLxiHTFksWHxExK5sPKOCIq0vXcvRri5kongb92i3HD-ZqFLEU5P9MO0CBgJQEcPm_vy7sUDaZjiLOKT/s1600/280px-OsirakLocation.png" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span><span style="line-height: 115%;">Israel used Saudi airspace to strike IRAQI nuclear reactor in 1981</span></span></span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">This was less important to ISRAEL when it had a strong relationship with TURKEY, but that cannot be assumed to be salvageable until the last of the present leadership team departs office in TURKEY. Meanwhile, the Sunni states — and particularly SAUDI ARABIA — engage in covert “information sharing” with ISRAEL to boost ISRAEL’S hostility toward IRAN, and this has been particularly effective with Prime Minister <b>Netanyahu</b>.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Background Information</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">: See </span><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">IRAN AT THE DOORSTEPS OF ISRAEL</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/syria-israel-iran-and-usa.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/syria-israel-iran-and-usa.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br />The prospect exists that the RUSSIAN Federation, already concerned over its inability to control two states in which it invested so heavily (IRAN and TURKEY), may well sponsor a revived diplomatic approach to ISRAEL and encourage an ISRAEL-IRAN rapprochement. It is worth noting that ISRAEL has been quiet on the subject of promoting the end to the <b>Bashar al-Assad</b>Government in SYRIA, knowing that it is a close ally of Tehran. <br /><br /><b style="color: red;">IRAN ALREADY HAS DEPLOYED NUCLEAR WEAPONS, A FACT KNOWN BY THE USA AND ISRAEL SINCE 1991</b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Western commentators and politicians have locked themselves into an unsustainable position: attempting to deny IRAN access to nuclear weapons. The reality, as US and ISRAELI officials have now acknowledged, is that IRAN already has deployed nuclear weapons, albeit not domestically-made ones. This has been known, but not discussed, since 1991.<br />US and Western officials missed the opportunity, with the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), begun under US Pres. <b>Ronald Reagan</b>, to develop a system which would have effectively negated the efficacy of missile-based nuclear weapons. As a result, nuclear weapons proliferation is likely to continue, not just with IRAN, but potentially with TURKEY, which has been developing the capabilities to achieve nuclear weapons production capacity. <br /><br />As a result of this, and the reality that the size, geography, and capabilities of IRAN — including its alliance structure with NORTH KOREA (DPRK), and now the People’s Republic of CHINA (PRC) — preclude armed invasion (a la IRAQ, a much, much easier target), opponents of IRAN have limited options. One is to seek to create a viable relationship with IRAN so as to preclude the prospect of IRANIAN use (or threats of use) of nuclear weapons. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ISOLATING IRAN THROUGH SANCTIONS AND HOSTILITY HAS ENABLED THE CLERICS TO BUILD A SOCIETY WHICH THEY CAN DOMINATE</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">This, obviously, from a Western or ISRAELI standpoint would be better facilitated if IRAN was governed by a non-clerical administration. The question, then, would be how such an outcome could be achieved. Significantly, isolating IRAN through sanctions and hostility has enabled the clerics to build a society which they can dominate. Isolation works both ways; in this case, it has strengthened clerical control of the IRANIAN population. Attempts to sow secessionist discord among IRANIAN constituent populations have thus far failed, although the most significant attempts — to create secessionism in Baluchistan — have actually fueled secessionist momentum in PAKISTANI BALUCHISTAN and, to a degree, AFGHAN BALUCHISTAN.<br /><br />Indeed, all realities may change if secessionist movements take root in AFGHANISTAN and PAKISTAN as the present AFGHANISTAN war winds down and the US and Coalition forces depart the area. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b style="color: red;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">LOSS OF US INFLUENCE IN THE PERSIAN GULF, THE NORTHERN TIER AND CENTRAL ASIA FORCES ISRAEL TO ADAPT NEW GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIES</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><span style="color: red;">  </span><br /><br />As things stand at present, IRAN stands to gain — whether under a clerical government or not — and the US has lost (and continues to lose) influence in the PERSIAN GULF, the NORTHERN TIER, (<a href="http://www.answers.com/topic/northern-tier-pennsylvania">http://www.answers.com/topic/northern-tier-pennsylvania</a>) and CENTRAL ASIA. ISRAELI leaders must take account of this obvious reality, and plan for a new strategic framework, one which includes a new energy relationship with the EUROPEAN UNION, a new relationship with RUSSIA, and a new relationship with IRAN (which can also be facilitated by the PRC). <br /><br /><b style="color: red;">IF THE SUNNI STATES — AND PARTICULARLY SAUDI ARABIA, QATAR, AND TURKEY — SUCCEED IN OVERTHROWING THE IRANIAN-SUPPORTED ‘ALAWITE LEADERSHIP IN SYRIA, THEN ISRAEL WILL FACE A REINVIGORATED “ARAB” THREAT</b><span style="color: red;">. </span></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Israel is already conscious of the fact that SAUDI ARABIA and QATAR have almost succeeded in replacing an anti-SAUDI leadership in Libya (<b>Mu’ammar al-Qadhafi</b>) with a pro-SAUDI/salafist-jihadist leadership in Tripoli. Significantly, the non-salafist LIBYAN province of <b>Cyrenaica</b>has resisted this, and has called — as it did when it started the anti-<b>Qadhafi</b> revolt in February 2011 — <b>for the restitution of the 1951 Libyan Constitution</b>, <b>which allows for a federal structure</b>. This would wrest control of the oil from radical Tripolitania and the salafist interim President of LIBYA, and return it to <b>Cyrenaica</b>, under the moderate and pro-Western Senussi sect. <br /><br />These are all inter-related aspects of the current framework which is only superficially addressed in the “<b>international debate</b>” as to whether ISRAEL would or should strike at IRANIAN nuclear facilities. The real issue includes the broader conflict for dominance between Shi’ism and Sunnism, and nationally between TURKISH and IRANIAN competition for historical reach.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Background Information: </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">See <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/sunni-versus-shia-middle-easts-new.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/sunni-versus-shia-middle-easts-new.html</a>and</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkeys-sunni-crescent.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkeys-sunni-crescent.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/turkey-and-central-asia.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/turkey-and-central-asia.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/turkey-shiite-persians-versus-wahhabi.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/turkey-shiite-persians-versus-wahhabi.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/how-iran-nuclear-standoff-looks-from.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/05/how-iran-nuclear-standoff-looks-from.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="font-size: large;">Furthermore, on a simpler perspective on should bear in mind that as long as ISRAEL keeps “publicly promoting” an attack on IRAN, the chances of it taking place are minimal for the much needed “surprise effect” has been lost. The minute ISRAEL refrains from its rhetoric’s and the current geostrategic and geopolitical situation persist; the chances of ISRAEL striking IRAN could be more imminent. Nevertheless in most likelihood all the sabre rattling by ISRAEL are pure political tactics. </span><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /></span></div>

ISRAEL AND IRAN - AIRSTRIKE UNLIKELY

WHY PROSPECTS OF AN ISRAEL IRAN CONFLICT REMAIN LOW By Gregory R. Copley  Global security concerns continued to be geared around the possibi...

Read more »

Book Review: Precedents in Architecture

<b><i><a href="http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470946741.html">Precedents in Architecture: Analytic Diagrams, Formative Ideas, and Partis (Fourth Edition)</a></i></b> by Roger H. Clark and Michael Pause<br />Wiley, 2012<br />Paperback, 352 pages<br /><br /><img alt="book-precedents4.jpg" src="http://www.archidose.org/Blog/book-precedents4.jpg" title="Precedents in Architecture: Analytic Diagrams, Formative Ideas, and Partis" /><br /><br />My first exposure to Clark and Pause's <i>Precedents in Architecture</i> was during a semester in Italy in the mid-1990s, where studio was a mix of analysis and design. An earlier edition of the book was in the small but quality library at the study center, and in its pages was the church we were analyzing. Like any student, I copied the diagrams into my sketchbook and showed them later to my professor, only to be berated for going that route, of making the analysis too simplistic. For him, analysis was not just diagramming circulation, hierarchy, symmetry, geometry, and so forth; it was a creative process, like design, that resulted in each student having his or her own take on the building. In other words, <i>Precedents in Architecture</i> was objective analysis and our work was subjective.<br /><br />A decade and a half later, finding myself teaching a second-year design studio that included a two-week building analysis, I was confronted with the decision to use Clark and Pause's book. While I did not require that students use it, I noticed that many of them did, given that by the fourth edition the book's line weights and shadings were unmistakable. But traces of my professor's comments lingered in my mind, so for me and my students the diagrams became a step toward realizing a deeper analysis of a particular building, not an end in themselves.<br /><br />The book's consistent approach to the various issues of analysis (the author's define those as structure, natural light, massing, plan to section or elevation, circulation to use-space, unit to whole, repetitive to unique, symmetry and balance, geometry, additive and subtractive, hierarchy) allows students to see a building as abstractions akin to their own design partis, as if they're seeing the project in its design stage. This is helpful in terms of cross referencing the various buildings (118 are included in the fourth edition) and finding the essences of the designs, but the tactic must be balanced by a prolonged look back at the building itself. For what is gained in the diagrams is lost in the fact that all but a few of the projects in the book are actual buildings; they exist and are made of materials and light, they sit on the earth and change a landscape. Analysis must also take these and other conditions of the built reality into account. So for students heading back to school, go ahead and pick up this new edition of the classic book, but realize that architects have dealt with issues beyond what Clark and Pause define, so there is much, much more to be discovered.<br /><br /><b>US: <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0470946741?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creativeASIN=0470946741&linkCode=xm2&tag=aweeklydoseof-20" target="_blank"><img alt="Buy from Amazon.com" border="0" src="http://www.archidose.org/books/buy-from-tan.gif" /></a> CA: <a href="http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0470946741?ie=UTF8&tag=aweeklydose02-20&linkCode=xm2&camp=15121&creativeASIN=0470946741" target="_blank"><img alt="Buy from Amazon.ca" border="0" height="28" src="http://www.archidose.org/books/buy-from-tan-ca.gif" width="90" /></a> UK: <a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0470946741?ie=UTF8&tag=aweeklydoseof-21&linkCode=xm2&camp=1634&creativeASIN=0470946741" target="_blank"><img alt="Buy from Amazon.co.uk" border="0" height="28" src="http://www.archidose.org/books/buy-from-tan-uk.gif" width="90" /></a></b>

Book Review: Precedents in Architecture

Precedents in Architecture: Analytic Diagrams, Formative Ideas, and Partis (Fourth Edition) by Roger H. Clark and Michael Pause Wiley, 2012...

Read more »

WAHHABISM IN BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA - Part 6

<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4bYc7hzx7vi6geTt5fz5CD2gf7fP7nfJCQeTK3ewUup-ur2v8sdiGRppRumHOIOjCt0Y9WYXdgjAVFbGBYV0xtSzTEiIO8y9T7HPKVmivZhGK-GU9M3n8pMFhASYcbMaHOgIH6kMrJfaP/s1600/220px-BosniaIslam.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4bYc7hzx7vi6geTt5fz5CD2gf7fP7nfJCQeTK3ewUup-ur2v8sdiGRppRumHOIOjCt0Y9WYXdgjAVFbGBYV0xtSzTEiIO8y9T7HPKVmivZhGK-GU9M3n8pMFhASYcbMaHOgIH6kMrJfaP/s1600/220px-BosniaIslam.png" /></a></div><br /><br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">WAHHABISM AT THE DOORSTEPS OF EUROPE</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></b><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">By Juan Carlos Antúnez</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">See previous 5 parts at: </span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/wahhabism-in-bosnia-herzegovina.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/wahhabism-in-bosnia-herzegovina.html</a></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/wahhabism-in-bosnia-herzegovina-part-2.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/wahhabism-in-bosnia-herzegovina-part-2.html</a></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/wahhabism-in-bosnia-herzegovina-part-3.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/wahhabism-in-bosnia-herzegovina-part-3.html</a></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/wahhabism-in-bosnia-herzegovina-part-4.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/wahhabism-in-bosnia-herzegovina-part-4.html</a></span></b></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/wahhabism-in-bosnia-herzegovina-part-5.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/wahhabism-in-bosnia-herzegovina-part-5.html</a><strong><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"></span></strong></span></b></div><br /><div style="color: blue;"><strong><span style="font-size: large;">C</span><span style="font-size: large;">ONCLUSIONS</span></strong></div><div style="color: blue;"><br /></div><span style="font-size: large;"><strong>1.</strong> It has been repeatedly stated that although Wahhabism has taken root in BIH for the last fifteen years, their number is not as important as some media try to show. The BIH example has often been quoted as a role-model for the concept of a ‘European Islam’; moderate, peaceful and flexible, an incarnation of the ideas of Islamic reformism reconciling traditional Islam with modern statehood. The following features of Islam in BIH support this assessment:</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">- The exclusive Sunni tradition reaching back to Ottoman times with strong influence from the moderate Hanafi Law School and Sufi orders;</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">- The unbroken tradition of a central spiritual authority with a well-organized Ulama or Islamic scholars structure;</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">- Centuries of co-existence with other world religions and confessions including more than 130 years in a secular state with rule-of-law elements;</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">- Compatibility of the legitimate Islamic institutions with the secular state: a well-organized Ulama, Madrasas as publicly recognized secondary schools, Islamic foundations (Vakufs) and (until 1946) Sharia-courts for family law.</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;"><strong>2.</strong> The possible influence of extremist outsiders on the Islamic community in BIH is lower than in other countries due to two main reasons:</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">- Structural arrangements: to be eligible, future Imams must have studied first at one of the six Madrasas (Secondary Islamic Schools) and then at the Islamic Faculty in Sarajevo.</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;"><strong>3. </strong>Wahhabism in BIH is an alien and small movement within BIH.</span><br /><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">Despite this, it is particularly successful in recruiting young ‘converts from within the BIH moderate Muslim tradition.</span><br /><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">All this valid as long as the economic situation in BIH, both real and “grey” economy, sees moderate movement. The minute the “two” economies enter a recession the situation regarding radical “Islamisation” might tilt the other way. Furthermore one should not forget that unlike the older generation of Bosniaks, the young generations have lost their ties to EUROPE and the mentality of its people. In addition Europe is not helping either with its restrictive policies towards Bosnian immigration etc. to encourage young Bosniaks to study and turn towards Europe. </span><br /><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">Nowadays young Bosniaks prefer to study, if possible, in Muslim countries, which provide sponsorship programs and financial assistance to poorer students. The Bosnian education system in the Federation on its part also encourages in some way radical Islamic movements to gain access. Cantonal run Universities in Tuzla and Sarajevo for example provide praying rooms which are funded by NGOs known to be run by Wahhabi and other Fundamental Islamic bodies, actively conducting recruiting campaigns in the Bosnian Federation education system by luring students of the lower social class in joining their “programs” by offering financial incentives. </span><br /><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">The question if Wahhabism and other radical Islamic movements will gain momentum in BIH depends on the how they manage to infiltrate the Bosnian youth movements and education system, and last but not least the economic situation of the country.</span><br />

WAHHABISM IN BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA - Part 6

WAHHABISM AT THE DOORSTEPS OF EUROPE   By Juan Carlos Antúnez See previous 5 parts at: http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/wahhab...

Read more »

Daily Education and Technology News for Schools 08/19/2012

<ul class="diigo-linkroll"> <li> <p class="diigo-link"> <a href="http://jureklepic.com/2012/08/17/social-media-saving-lives-two-words-at-the-time/">Social Media saving lives – two words at the time | UNSPOKEN ~ Social Media</a> </p> <p class="diigo-description">I am asking everyone to read this post by my new friend Jure Klepic. This is what we're doing with the #choose2matter campaign. PLEASE read, understand, and watch. I must say that Jure took 5 minutes to answer a few questions for me about social media and helped me profoundly. It is hard to fathom that before he watched Angela's talk that he wondered if he mattered. He's talented, smart, and seems to have the world at his feet. You never know who feels like they don't matter. As a teacher, this is your job - #choose2matter don't just settle to show up. Let's be more and do more for all the Christopher and Jure's out there. </p> <p class="diigo-tags"> <span>tags:</span> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/education">education</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/news">news</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/choose2matter">choose2matter</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/youmatter">youmatter</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/socialmedia">socialmedia</a></p> </li> <li> <p class="diigo-link"> <a href="http://annefox.eu/2012/04/16/digital-handshakes/">Digital handshakes » Anne Fox</a> </p> <p class="diigo-description">Anne Fox shares her reflections n the digital handshake, an important aspect of getting to know people.</p> <p class="diigo-tags"> <span>tags:</span> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/education">education</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/inthenews">inthenews</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/news">news</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/handshake">handshake</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/flatclass">flatclass</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/flatclassroombook">flatclassroombook</a></p> </li> <li> <p class="diigo-link"> <a href="http://plpnetwork.com/2012/04/17/teaching-cross-cultural-communication-in-a-connected-world/">Teaching Cross-Cultural Communication in a Connected World | Powerful Learning Practice</a> </p> <p class="diigo-description">Fascinating blog post about how misunderstanding the "pound sign" caused a project not to happen. The US school said to press the pound sign (#) but the UK school was looking for the british pound sign - they call the # the number sign. This is a great point about communication and overcoming. It makes me sad they couldn't figure it out and work it out, but great that these conversations keep happening. </p> <p class="diigo-tags"> <span>tags:</span> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/education">education</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/flatclass">flatclass</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/news">news</a></p> </li> <li> <p class="diigo-link"> <a href="http://markpmeyers.wordpress.com/2012/04/02/connecting-and-communicating/">Connecting and Communicating « Mark Patrick Meyers</a> </p> <p class="diigo-description">A reflection on Digiteen by @meywong</p> <p class="diigo-tags"> <span>tags:</span> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/digiteen">digiteen</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/inthenews">inthenews</a></p> </li> <li> <p class="diigo-link"> <a href="http://edtechinnovations.com/2012/05/06/flat_classroom_book/">Book Review: “Flattening Classrooms, Engaging Minds” « EdTech Innovations</a> </p> <p class="diigo-description">A wonderful book review for the Flattening Classrooms, Engaging Minds book cross posted on Technology and Learning</p> <p class="diigo-tags"> <span>tags:</span> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/education">education</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/flatclassroombook">flatclassroombook</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/bookreview">bookreview</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/inthenews">inthenews</a></p> </li> <li> <p class="diigo-link"> <a href="http://edtechsandyk.blogspot.com/2012/04/flattening-classrooms-engaging-minds.html">EdTechSandyK: Flattening Classrooms, Engaging Minds With @CoolCatTeacher & @JulieLindsay</a> </p> <p class="diigo-description">Sandy created an overview of a webinar a while back we did overviewing the Flattening Classrooms, Engaging Minds book. She gave a nice overview of the discussion with Steve Hargadon, who always brings out great points that need to be discussed.</p> <p class="diigo-tags"> <span>tags:</span> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/education">education</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/news">news</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/globaled">globaled</a> <a href="http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher/flatclass">flatclass</a></p> </li> </ul><p class="diigo-ps">Posted from <a href='http://www.diigo.com'>Diigo</a>. The rest of my favorite links are <a href='http://www.diigo.com/user/coolcatteacher'>here</a>.</p>

Daily Education and Technology News for Schools 08/19/2012

Social Media saving lives – two words at the time | UNSPOKEN ~ Social Media I am asking everyone to ...

Read more »

A SAUDI OVERTURE TO IRAN

<br /><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="margin-left: -.5in; mso-cellspacing: 0in; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 0in; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 750px;"> <tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"> <td style="padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in; width: 562.5pt;" valign="top" width="750"> <div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-right: 31.5pt;"><br /></div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="margin-left: .5in; mso-cellspacing: 0in; mso-padding-alt: 0in 0in 0in 0in; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 702px;"> <tbody><tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;"> <td style="padding: 0in 0in 0in 0in; width: 526.5pt;" width="702"> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj6lwszDuKcYkJQcu2s4FwPtKAUfpcy0EuCehct2No6Z5ZZdZcv9BepE5Um6QD_fnFGJVtdLRq-F2ziomhAAxEadxAeujx-Yw0229oJwajs7et_t0i1-jwPXmgDpJ0nmJFZihG_8Uz0ToW/s1600/640x392_51255_232504.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj6lwszDuKcYkJQcu2s4FwPtKAUfpcy0EuCehct2No6Z5ZZdZcv9BepE5Um6QD_fnFGJVtdLRq-F2ziomhAAxEadxAeujx-Yw0229oJwajs7et_t0i1-jwPXmgDpJ0nmJFZihG_8Uz0ToW/s400/640x392_51255_232504.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 31.5pt; margin-top: 0in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 31.5pt; margin-top: 0in;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> </span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /> By M K Bhadrakumar via Asia Times<br /> <br /> </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>SUBTEXTS ARE INVARIABLY MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THE MANIFEST NARRATIVE</b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The narrative could not have been simpler - SAUDI ARABIA has taken its cold war with IRAN, which is being fought on the beaches, in the air and in the hills of the MIDDLE EAST, to the great arena of the Muslim ummah. And IRAN has badly lost in the tournament. <br /> <br /> However, the summit of the ORGANIZATION OF ISLAMIC COOPERATION (OIC) in Mecca this week had a subtle subtext, and anyone who knows Muslim politics would sense that on such occasions the subtexts are invariably more significant than the manifest narrative. <br /> <br /> The narrative itself is that SYRIA has been banished from the Sunni world and IRAN could do nothing to stop it from happening. It is posted all over the Western media. Washington even expressed<br /> satisfaction that a "strong signal" had been delivered to Damascus. <br /> <br /> <b style="color: red;">THE OIC AS A REGIONAL ORGANIZATION IS NOTORIOUSLY INEFFECTIVE</b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br /> </span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">But was SYRIA indeed the core issue at the OIC summit? It seems more like a case of the SYRIAN crisis providing the peg on which certain subtexts could be hung for all to see. <br /> <br /> No one is mistaken that the majority opinion within the OIC as reflected in the decision to suspend SYRIA'S membership is going to decide that country's future. Arguably, the summit sends a signal to SYRIA, but then, Damascus has no dearth of signals these days from far and near, and that is not the issue. All said, the OIC as a regional organization is notoriously ineffective. For decades it fulminated against INDIA on the Kashmir issue and even constituted a Contact Group on the subject - with TURKEY and SAUDI ARABIA charioting it - but New Delhi chose to ignore it and no one knows today whether or not it is still around. <br /> <br /> A tough regime like the one in Damascus would know that the OIC is toothless and that SAUDI ARABIA'S wish has always been a command for the organization. Ironically, SYRIA used to counsel New Delhi not to lose sleep over the ISI Contact Group. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br /> <b style="color: red;">THE SYRIAN CRISIS -A FIRST-RATE WRESTLING MATCH BY EXTERNAL POWERS OVER REGIONAL HEGEMONY</b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br /> The heart of the matter is that the SYRIAN crisis has now transcended the SAUDI-IRANIAN paradigm and has morphed into a first-rate wrestling match by external powers over regional hegemony - and the most powerful among them are not even Muslim countries. It is not in the interests of the most powerful protagonists - the UNITED STATES, EUROPE, RUSSIA, CHINA - to give the impression that their security policy is to support the <b>Sunnis</b> or the <b>Shi'ites</b> in the MIDDLE EAST. <br /> <br /> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b style="color: red;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">CHINA AND RUSSIA HAVE THRICE DRAWN THE “RED LINE” IN THE<span>  </span>UN SECURITY COUNCIL</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br /> The Western powers are reluctant to intervene in SYRIA while the diplomatic track has tapered off; RUSSIA and CHINA are moving on with their mundane life after having thrice drawn the "red line" in the United Nations Security Council; and the US and TURKEY have been left in solitude to grapple with the difficult question of how to proceed to end the violence against the backdrop of the failure of diplomacy and the blunt refusal of the Bashar al-Assad regime to give in despite all the body blows given to it - this, in a nutshell, is the current SYRIAN situation. <br /> <br /> Simply put, the OIC has no role here. In fact, if it had one, that too was lost after the flawed decision at Mecca to draw the bridges leading to Damascus - whereas, with a little more imagination, the OIC could have aspired to position itself to play the role of a facilitator-cum-mediator at an opportune moment in future. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br /></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"></span><b style="color: red;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">FRONT AGAINST SECTARIANISM IN THE MUSLIM WORLD</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">So why did SAUDI ARABIA think up this untimely initiative to convene an extraordinary summit of the OIC? The central objective of the SAUDI initiative was to present a united front against sectarianism in the Muslim world. Tehran understood this early enough, which explains its considered decision to participate in the summit in Mecca despite the near-certainty that the conclave would end up censuring the SYRIAN regime in one form or another. <br /> <br /> In turn, IRAN also rose to the occasion by giving a measured response at the level of the foreign minister to the OIC's decision to suspend SYRIA'S membership. <br /> <br /> Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said in Mecca: "SYRIA should have been invited to the summit to defend itself and also so that the participants could have listened to its official views." He explained that Tehran objected to the OIC decision because "this is against the very charter of the organization". Salehi added: "In our opinion, cooperation is more logical [than suspension and] ... we should seek a mechanism to exit the SYRIAN crisis by way of the opposition and the government engaging in talks to create favorable conditions" to end the crisis. <br /> <br /> <b style="color: red;">REDRAWING THE RULES OF THE GAME </b></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br /> Second, the developments in SYRIA are steadily bringing religious sectarianism into the open in a way that does not suit any of the major regional protagonists - SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN, QATAR or TURKEY - since almost all of them are as much vulnerable to the fallouts from any deepening of the sectarian fault line as SYRIA could be today. <br /> <br /> <b>Shi'ites constitute almost 20% of the SAUDI population, more than 35% in Kuwait and almost 70% in BAHRAIN.</b> Alawites are a restive minority with long-standing grievances of persecution, accounting for 20% of TURKEY'S population (on top of the alienated KURDS, who form another 20%). </span></span></div><h1 style="margin: 5pt 31.5pt 7.5pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i><span style="color: blue; font-weight: normal;">Comment by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring</span></i><i><span style="color: blue;">: Alevis from TURKEY are commonly confused with Alewites from SYRIA and vice versa. For more background information regarding above mentioned subject see: </span></i></span></h1><h1 style="margin: 5pt 31.5pt 7.5pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: blue;">ALAWITES IN SYRIA AND ALEVIS IN TURKEY: CRUCIAL DIFFERENCES</span></span></h1><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3284/alawites-syria-alevis-turkey">http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3284/alawites-syria-alevis-turkey</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Indeed, IRAN too has a substantial Sunni minority<br /> <br /> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">NONE OF THE REGIONAL PROTAGONISTS STANDS TO BENEFIT FROM PUSHING THE ENVELOPE AND ESCALATING RELIGIOUS TENSIONS</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Third, no matter what happens on the ground, Sunnis are going to play a much more influential role in SYRIA'S political life than before, which again means that none of the regional protagonists stands to benefit from pushing the envelope and escalating religious tensions. Also, the fallouts of religious tensions are certain to be very serious. <b>The signs are visible already that the Shi'ite-dominated eastern provinces of SAUDI ARABIA are on the boil</b>. This constitutes a formidable challenge to the royal family both in geographic and economic terms. For more background information see: <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/sunni-versus-shia-middle-easts-new.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/sunni-versus-shia-middle-easts-new.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://blogs.cfr.org/abrams/2012/07/13/shia-unrest-in-saudi-arabia/">http://blogs.cfr.org/abrams/2012/07/13/shia-unrest-in-saudi-arabia/</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br /> <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/saudi-arabian-intelligence-headquarters.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/saudi-arabian-intelligence-headquarters.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><a href="http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Aramco-the-Latest-Victim-of-a-Cyber-Attack.html">http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Aramco-the-Latest-Victim-of-a-Cyber-Attack.html</a></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br /> Even as the OIC began its deliberations in Jeddah, ominous signs appeared in LEBANON, with the Shi'ite Meqdad clan kidnapping more than 20 Syrians in retaliation for the abduction of one of their kinsmen by the so-called Free Syrian Army. The Meqdad clan has threatened that "the snowball will grow" and that SAUDI, QATARI and TURKISH nationals will be targeted. <br /> <br /> SAUDI ARABIA promptly issued an advisory to its nationals to leave LEBANON immediately. The UNITED ARAB EMIRATES and QATAR have taken similar steps. There are reports of dozens of SYRIANS being kidnapped in Beirut and of gunmen taking to the streets in the Shi'ite suburb of Tiro in the southern part of the city. <br /> That is to say, while the OIC summit initiative may not have any direct impact on the near-term trajectory of developments in SYRIA itself, it has taken into account the existential challenge posed by religious tensions and has adopted a long-term approach aimed at containing the several available potentially inflammable political hot spots in the region from assuming sectarian overtones. <br /> <br /> </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: red; line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">REDRAW THE RULES OF THE GAME IN SYRIA</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 31.5pt 0.0001pt 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br /> In sum, the OIC summit's rebuke to SYRIA adds up to little consequential beyond the symbolic. The summit could not be expected to heal the SAUDI-IRANIAN rift, which stems from a clash of national interests. But what the OIC summit aimed at it may well be achieving, namely to redraw the rules of the game in SYRIA and to "secularize" the political differences and conflicts. <br /> <br /> How far the OIC's message will travel among the diehard militants time only will tell, but King Abdullah certainly made an important conciliatory gesture to IRANIAN President Mahmud Ahmadinejad by seating him at his side to welcome the leaders attending the summit. <br /> <br /> As Reuters reported: "Ahmadinejad, wearing the dark suit and shirt without tie favored by IRANIAN leaders, sat at the left hand of the king in his traditional Arab robes. The two were shown talking and sometimes laughing together." <br /> <br /> This is where the "subtext" makes its presence felt as the real narrative. By any reckoning, the gesture to Ahmadinejad was an overture by the SAUDI king to the IRANIAN nation that no matter what happens in SYRIA (or over SYRIA) in the coming period, "we are both Muslims". <br /> <br /> Curiously, a summit that was billed as a potentially big showdown between SAUDI ARABIA and IRAN ended by adopting King Abdullah's proposal on the setting up of a center in Riyadh for dialogue among different Muslim sects. It is tempting to think that the OIC may have understood finally its tryst with destiny. </span></span></div></td> </tr></tbody></table></td> </tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: -45pt; text-indent: 45pt;"><br /></div>

A SAUDI OVERTURE TO IRAN

  By M K Bhadrakumar via Asia Times SUBTEXTS ARE INVARIABLY MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THE MANIFEST NARRATIVE The...

Read more »

TURKEY’S ENERGY DEPENDENCY ON COUNTRIES LIKE RUSSIA AND IRAN HAVE A RESTRAINING EFFECT ON ITS FOREIGN POLICY

<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsumeLP919dvrqISrR3pdaFXQCP0d8WQDfm28xBVEIgsr_lY3EJ6sztFC7O-euhlX7CDntKzDim_va9k8CCR6NXP7HM1roAjYmfFQ3WeSh9abquTNHb2wj1xAn_5uKJA26wLmGYEhEihJ7/s1600/285340cc5ff1b29a181dc8f80ea3caa6azeri_turk_bayragi17062010_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsumeLP919dvrqISrR3pdaFXQCP0d8WQDfm28xBVEIgsr_lY3EJ6sztFC7O-euhlX7CDntKzDim_va9k8CCR6NXP7HM1roAjYmfFQ3WeSh9abquTNHb2wj1xAn_5uKJA26wLmGYEhEihJ7/s320/285340cc5ff1b29a181dc8f80ea3caa6azeri_turk_bayragi17062010_1.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br /> <div class="style5"><br /></div><div class="style5" style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: large;"><strong>TRANS-ANATOLIAN PIPELINE: A GEOPOLITICAL ACHIEVEMENT, BUT NO PANACEA FOR TURKEY’S ENERGY INDEPENDENCE</strong></span></div><div class="style5" style="color: red;"><br /></div><div class="style5"><span style="font-size: large;"><strong><span style="font-size: small;">Read also article below:  <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-erratic-foreign-policies-all.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/08/turkeys-erratic-foreign-policies-all.html</a></span></strong></span></div><div class="style5"><span style="font-size: large;"><strong><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></strong></span></div><span style="font-size: large;">The realization of the Trans-Anatolian Project by 2018 will strengthen AZERBAIJAN in strategic terms, offering it a route to the world markets that bypasses RUSSIA. The realization of TANAP is a significant geostrategic setback for RUSSIA. However, TANAP is no panacea for TURKEY’S energy predicament. TURKEY will remain dependent ON RUSSIA as a natural gas supplier. </span><br /><br /> <div style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>GEOPOLITICAL SIGNIFICANCE: TURKEY’S MAIN SUPPLIERS OF NATURAL GAS ARE RUSSIA AND IRAN</b></span></div><div style="color: red;"><br /></div><span style="font-size: large;">Second only to CHINA, TURKEY is the country in the world where the demand for energy supplies have increased most during the last decade. TURKEY is dependent on foreign supplies for <b>seventy-four percent</b> of its energy consumption. TURKEY’S main suppliers of natural gas are RUSSIA and IRAN. Natural gas accounts for the production of nearly fifty percent of its electricity, and eighty percent of the natural gas that TURKEY imports is in turn provided by RUSSIA and IRAN.</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">To decrease the dependency on RUSSIA and IRAN, the diversification of energy supplies has long been a major preoccupation for TURKEY’S leaders. Ankara has been looking to sign deals that would bring natural gas from IRAQ, the PERSIAN GULF and the CASPIAN region to TURKEY. This strategy aims both at enhancing TURKEY’S energy security by diversifying its suppliers, and to turn TURKEY into an energy hub, providing a transit route for energy to the EUROPEAN markets. See <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkey-and-russia.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkey-and-russia.html</a></span><br /><br /> <div style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>TURKEYS PURSUIT OF BECOMING THE MAIN ENERGY HUB FOR EUROPE </b></span></div><br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq7v5L3vvfLCWY33ofB9KzZqSWj9M58vC3zMLjHBKvTv80nNQa1CyJXV9rOBvW6Vvd_GImQppzA9RTj6t5RU84zQSUjiUatprxA2d2_t8fcGikyT1kpKStqXT8PsXPCnEBKfUQ52oShy-C/s1600/tanap_botas.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq7v5L3vvfLCWY33ofB9KzZqSWj9M58vC3zMLjHBKvTv80nNQa1CyJXV9rOBvW6Vvd_GImQppzA9RTj6t5RU84zQSUjiUatprxA2d2_t8fcGikyT1kpKStqXT8PsXPCnEBKfUQ52oShy-C/s400/tanap_botas.png" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-size: large;">In this light, the presently most feasible project is the one that would bring gas from the Shah Deniz II field in the AZERBAIJANI sector of the CASPIAN SEA to EUROPE via TURKEY. The agreement to realize TANAP (the Trans-Anatolian Project) was signed on June 26, 2012, with the participation of AZERBAIJAN’S President Ilham Aliyev and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in a ceremony in Istanbul. The project is expected to be finalized by 2018, by which at a first stage an annual production of 16 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas will be transported. Later, depending on exploration in adjacent areas, the annual production to be transported is estimated to rise to as much as 30 bcm. </span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">According to the agreement between AZERBAIJAN and TURKEY, 6 bcm of the annual flow of 16 bcm is set aside for TURKEY. The assumption is that the remaining 10 bcm will be delivered to EUROPEAN markets through <b>Nabucco </b>West or the <b>Trans-Adriatic Pipeline</b>. The decisions about the route that <b>Nabucco West</b>and TAP will follow are in turn expected to be finalized in 2013.</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">There can be no doubt that the agreement about TANAP represents the strategically most important agreement of its kind since the construction of the <b>Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan</b> oil pipeline. The <b>Trans-Anatolian Project</b>has significant strategic implications, as it opens a new, southern route for the energy sources of the <b>Caspian</b>region, to the detriment of RUSSIAN interests.</span><br /><br /> <div style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>THE BIG MIDDLE EASTERN ENERGY PUZZLE AND SUBSEQUENT STRATEGIC VOLATILITY OF THE REGION</b></span></div><br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw8yIsV_vqLncTVHq7r_ZAZsk4ojVmVl5nM9A-kjJHrRhqeztxmmWCg2zvTHU-9OkI1oWlRfdkSj0jtDYL4ZdaXowL9M1rm6W3xuwDNJqdoLmQil5Qoi6Uj0O5AYC56C-W5ffd5Qy8vCWW/s1600/237huge.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="278" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw8yIsV_vqLncTVHq7r_ZAZsk4ojVmVl5nM9A-kjJHrRhqeztxmmWCg2zvTHU-9OkI1oWlRfdkSj0jtDYL4ZdaXowL9M1rm6W3xuwDNJqdoLmQil5Qoi6Uj0O5AYC56C-W5ffd5Qy8vCWW/s400/237huge.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><span style="font-size: large;">As RUSSIA aspires to monopolize the role as the natural gas supplier of EUROPE, the opening of a southern route from the <b>Caspian Sea</b> to EUROPE runs counter to its interests, and RUSSIA’S position on this matter has long been well known. Indeed, certain events before and after the signing of the Trans-Anatolian Project agreement are noteworthy in this light: The clashes on the AZERBAIJANI-ARMENIAN border, the bombing of the IRANIAN natural gas line by the KURDISTAN Workers’ Party (PKK), the subsequent attack by the KURDISH militants on the TURKISH army outpost of Dağlıca in southeastern TURKEY, and finally the downing of the TURKISH RF-4 aircraft on June 22 over SYRIAN airspace are strong reminders of the strategic volatility of the region. </span><br /><br /> <div style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>SEVERAL TURKISH COMMENTATORS HAVE MADE THE POINT THAT TURKEY RISKS EXPOSING ITSELF FOR RUSSIAN AND IRANIAN RETALIATION BY IMPLICATING ITSELF IN THE SYRIAN CRISIS</b></span></div><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">RUSSIA has certainly not made any attempt to hide its displeasure with the signing of the TANAP agreement; Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupryanov noted that “Gazprom has amply demonstrated that it has been a reliable partner for its TURKISH business partners. On occasions of technical troubles and of extreme cold, Gazprom has always made up for not only the loss, but also provided more natural gas than what had been stipulated by agreements.” The Gazprom spokesman went on to advice TURKEY to direct similar requests to Baku after TANAP becomes operational in 2018.</span><br /><br /> <div style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>TRANS-ANATOLIAN PROJECT WILL MAKE AZERBAIJAN INDEPENDENT FROM RUSSIA</b></span></div><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">From RUSSIA’S point of view, TANAP undoubtedly amounts to a strategic setback, since the Trans-Anatolian Project will make AZERBAIJAN independent from RUSSIA as a conduit to the world markets. And it would at first glance also seem to signify an economic loss for RUSSIA; TURKEY is the recipient of one third of RUSSIA’S export of natural gas, and RUSSIA would thus seem to stand to lose some of its position on the TURKISH market when TURKEY acquires a new provider. However, the crucial point and concern from Moscow’s perspective is that other producers are provided with the possibility of accessing the EUROPEAN market by a southern route. The threat that looms in a longer perspective is that natural gas from IRAQ and the PERSIAN GULF will take the <b>southern route</b> to EUROPE.</span><br /><br /> <div style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>TURKEYS DEMAND FOR ENERGY BY FAR EXCEEDS SUPPLY</b></span></div><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">From a TURKISH perspective however, TANAP is very far from providing a solution to the country’s energy problems. TURKEY will still remain confronted to the fact that the demand for energy by far exceeds supply, at least as long as TURKEY’S economy continues to grow. Indeed, the estimates are that TURKEY will need to make additional deals for the provision of 20 to 30 bcm of natural gas until 2018. The 6 bcm that TANAP will provide annually will not make up for the country’s growing energy needs; even if NABUCO West and TAP are not realized, TURKEY would absorb all of the 16 bcm from Shah Deniz II, still leaving it in a position of needing to secure additional natural gas supplies.</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">TURKEY’S energy problems are aggravated by the fact that the country has foreign policy problems with all of its present and potential suppliers; relations are strained with RUSSIA, IRAN and IRAQ, while the ARMENIAN issue still remains a potential strain on the relations between TURKEY and AZERBAIJAN, even though the two countries are now becoming ever more strategically interconnected. U.S. pressures on TURKEY to improve its relations with ARMENIA have on occasion brought TURKISH-AZERBAIJANI relations to the breaking point, and there are no guarantees that similar crises will not occur again in the future.</span><br /><br /> <div style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>TURKEY’S ENERGY DEPENDENCY ON COUNTRIES LIKE RUSSIA AND IRAN HAVE A RESTRAINING EFFECT ON ITS FOREIGN POLICY</b></span></div><br /> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVvdH-d0fyVGTp-zup6xK37R7Tgo_oiLjfiVqxkCJKEZ7KmZkxGnMmhlM1rgbwQ1Ofu4DPwLvGMt86AKvJD8iwLFIc3anCC3CxgP6yyIpTY9g_C2jRsoWEnT8n_utG8I7k3hJobfFdkMR0/s1600/dstNews_17644_nabucco.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVvdH-d0fyVGTp-zup6xK37R7Tgo_oiLjfiVqxkCJKEZ7KmZkxGnMmhlM1rgbwQ1Ofu4DPwLvGMt86AKvJD8iwLFIc3anCC3CxgP6yyIpTY9g_C2jRsoWEnT8n_utG8I7k3hJobfFdkMR0/s320/dstNews_17644_nabucco.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-size: large;">Concurrently, TURKEY’S energy dependency on countries like RUSSIA and IRAN have a restraining effect on its foreign policy. The signing of the Trans-Anatolian Project does not stand to decrease TURKEY’S dependency on RUSSIA as a natural gas supplier. Indeed, as TURKEY tries to diversify its energy sources and become less dependent on fossil energy, its energy ties to RUSSIA are in fact continuously deepening. The RUSSIAN-financed construction of the nuclear reactor in Akkuyu, which is scheduled to start at the end of this year, will mark yet another important step in the evolution of the RUSSIAN-TURKISH energy relationship.</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">The realization of the Trans-Anatolian Project by 2018 will strengthen AZERBAIJAN in strategic terms, offering it a direct route to the world markets in the place of one that would be controlled by RUSSIA. From Moscow’s point of view, the realization of TANAP is a strategic setback. However, TANAP does not offer a solution to TURKEY’S energy predicament. The amount of natural gas that AZERBAIJAN will provide TURKEY is far from covering the country’s vast and growing energy needs. Turkey will thus remain dependent on RUSSIA, both a supplier of natural gas and for its nuclear energy program. As TURKEY will have to conclude new deals for RUSSIAN natural gas supplies, TANAP will not affect RUSSIA’S position on the TURKISH market.</span><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">The contribution of the Trans-Anatolian Project to TURKEY’S energy security will be marginal. Rather, the importance of TANAP resides in the fact that it brings a new element to the equation of energy geopolitics in the region; the opening of a southern route of natural gas that represents a significant geopolitical accomplishment for TURKEY, the West, and AZERBAIJAN.</span><br /> <br /> <div style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>TURKEYS ENERGY QUEST ALSO EFFECTS CYPRUS AND ISRAEL </b></span></div><br /> <span style="font-size: large;">In view of above facts it becomes evident as to why TURKEY is also lashing out at its arch foe, CYRUS and ISRAEL, after significant hydrocarbon gas fields were discovered south of the island, triggering a joint exploration quest by CYPRUS and ISRAEL. For more details see:</span><br /><br /> <div style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>CHANGING THE GEOPOLITICAL BALANCE OF POWER IN THE MIDDLE EASTERN REGION</b></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/02/new-mediterranean-oil-and-gas-bonanza.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/02/new-mediterranean-oil-and-gas-bonanza.html</a></span><br /><br /> <div style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="letter-spacing: 0.5pt;">ENORMOUS GAS FINDINGS AND PROSPECTS OF OIL FINDINGS COMPLICATE TURKEYS STANCE IN THE REGION </span></b></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/02/eastern-mediterranean-sea.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/02/eastern-mediterranean-sea.html</a></span><br /><br /> <div style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>THE NATURAL RESOURCES CHESS GAME IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN BASIN  </b></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2011/09/turkeys-middle-east-chess-game.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2011/09/turkeys-middle-east-chess-game.html</a></span><br /><br /> <div style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>CYPRUS AND ISRAEL TO BECOME MAJOR GAS EXPORTERS IN THE NOT TOO DISTANT FUTURE </b></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/02/geo-strategic-dynamics-in-eastern.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/02/geo-strategic-dynamics-in-eastern.html</a></span><br /><br /> <div style="color: blue;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>TURKEYS ERRANT GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIES AND ITS CONSEQUENCES IN THE REGION</b></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/04/complexity-of-eastern-med-energy-games.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/04/complexity-of-eastern-med-energy-games.html</a></span><br /> <br /> <strong><span style="font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">By M. Kemal Kaya, with additions by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring</span></strong><br />

TURKEY’S ENERGY DEPENDENCY ON COUNTRIES LIKE RUSSIA AND IRAN HAVE A RESTRAINING EFFECT ON ITS FOREIGN POLICY

TRANS-ANATOLIAN PIPELINE: A GEOPOLITICAL ACHIEVEMENT, BUT NO PANACEA FOR TURKEY’S ENERGY INDEPENDENCE Read also article below:  http://new...

Read more »

TURKEYS ERRATIC FOREIGN POLICIES – ALL BECAUSE OF ENERGY?

<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAaIgssP-RS3gmzEbn2CSxhe60Fe4gjSmQY6c1UZ3FgALYpEvEXtNsgMm6bLmw725czZ96JP8AzIDccjbGfMRPvgnOZLz5tVU969IKCFSTMcVuSIH5Re_EeZztULTADEtaGs9Kzb9Q9eIt/s1600/images.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAaIgssP-RS3gmzEbn2CSxhe60Fe4gjSmQY6c1UZ3FgALYpEvEXtNsgMm6bLmw725czZ96JP8AzIDccjbGfMRPvgnOZLz5tVU969IKCFSTMcVuSIH5Re_EeZztULTADEtaGs9Kzb9Q9eIt/s400/images.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br /></span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br /></span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">TURKEY'S GAMBLE ON KURDISTAN OIL</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">As tensions rise among IRAQI KURDS in the country's north</span>, <span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">SUNNIS in the south and the SHI'ITE-led government in Baghdad over the distribution of natural resources, TURKEY is setting its sights on an unconventional alliance with the KURDISTAN Regional Government (KRG).</span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHVDWABeIttc66lke9wLOAIpMF23qbOOibLkJ3YvtXxaw5tLSfEb0KB8NFWJOTriQk11JiwWbrrkZnjtzU07yt8IkY0bPp924ekV5HfNaa2H6jpoAJSQxrbigmmS8GgYYIMPR5gTvZz9FA/s1600/800px-Baku_pipelines.svg.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHVDWABeIttc66lke9wLOAIpMF23qbOOibLkJ3YvtXxaw5tLSfEb0KB8NFWJOTriQk11JiwWbrrkZnjtzU07yt8IkY0bPp924ekV5HfNaa2H6jpoAJSQxrbigmmS8GgYYIMPR5gTvZz9FA/s400/800px-Baku_pipelines.svg.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">This is a gamble Ankara is willing to take, despite the potential implications it could have for KURDS on its own territory. As recently as 2009, Ankara had a very different view on the KRG, going as far as to label its leader, Masoud Barzani, a "bandit" who was turning a blind eye (at best) to KURDISH militants using NORTHERN IRAQ as a base to launch cross-border attacks on TURKEY. The KURDISTAN Workers Party (PKK) has been fighting the TURKISH government for more rights for decades.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">So when Ankara began announcing a series of bilateral deals with the KRG (deals that went above Baghdad's head), everyone's first question was why would TURKEY want to align itself with an IRAQI Kurdish leadership who is clearly making a play to create a sovereign KURDISH state?</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">NORTHERN IRAQ STANDS TO BE ONE OF THE NEXT GREAT INVESTMENT AREAS IN THE MIDDLE EAST</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqnGQE8nnU5Ho4HlXpvNx-sCkfzYeO26d1Ne3hi1ATzLxMfe0tHbvVXsa3deEsXWYh7MtGA84EwFx8Ru8Rg5KA6UF7Co1jhHx3J9btaIY6gITb0J6sAcf5MyIgyKjbFHj8qgz9inYxMToi/s1600/iraq_oil_2003.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="287" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqnGQE8nnU5Ho4HlXpvNx-sCkfzYeO26d1Ne3hi1ATzLxMfe0tHbvVXsa3deEsXWYh7MtGA84EwFx8Ru8Rg5KA6UF7Co1jhHx3J9btaIY6gITb0J6sAcf5MyIgyKjbFHj8qgz9inYxMToi/s320/iraq_oil_2003.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Analysts at the intelligence firm Jellyfish say this is not such an unexpected or even illogical development from TURKEY'S standpoint, for NORTHERN IRAQ is a major market for TURKISH exports and that oil and gas coming from IRAQI KURDISH territory is moved on to worldwide markets through TURKEY.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">From a financial and logistical standpoint, an Ankara-Erbil marriage is one of exceptional convenience. On the other hand one has to bear in mind that NORTHERN IRAQ stands to be one of the next great investment areas in the MIDDLE EAST, and so far the KRG has managed to outplay Baghdad in the natural resources and investment game.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The KRG signed a highly controversial deal with ExxonMobil to explore for hydrocarbons in NORTHERN IRAQ. The deal was signed without Baghdad's consent or consultation, which makes the deal perceivably illegal. Baghdad attempted to auction off another set of exploration blocks, but none of the big international players bid, balking at (among other things) clauses forbidding anyone to deal exclusively with the KRG.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">PIPELINE DEALS – THE REAL REASON FOR THE CURRENT UP HEAVE IN THE MIDDLE EAST?</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Furthermore the KRG and TURKEY announced plans to build a pipeline connecting Ceyhan, TURKEY, with NORTHERN IRAQ, and that this pipeline could carry 1 million barrels of oil per day and could be completed as early as August 2013. A second addition to the pipeline would connect it directly to the existing Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline by 2014. The KRG plans to export crude oil to TURKEY, which will be refined in TURKEY and re-exported to NORTHERN IRAQ.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHKv1Ce-j1GeygBlINKT-gBZGKgozNx87NmHuUE3E8qWDqRQwCXKbKH4e8bghJ8ijTJU8zD9B9RblJZXNJnmNTyFzOYN9xdky7KDJEFU0j04-qIy6SlEA1fjuBBRPuXwdYQXcB-uiTd73Z/s1600/AzPipeMap2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHKv1Ce-j1GeygBlINKT-gBZGKgozNx87NmHuUE3E8qWDqRQwCXKbKH4e8bghJ8ijTJU8zD9B9RblJZXNJnmNTyFzOYN9xdky7KDJEFU0j04-qIy6SlEA1fjuBBRPuXwdYQXcB-uiTd73Z/s320/AzPipeMap2.gif" width="320" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">A highly significant but oddly underreported development that will boost the <b>KRG's power play for autonomy in NORTHERN IRAQ</b> was the expression of support for the KRG's deal with ExxonMobil Ninewa province Governor Atheel Nujaifi. Nujaifi—from his seat in the provincial capital of Mosul—officially aligned himself with the KRG's oil rights moves against Baghdad, tipping the balance of power in the KRG's favor. The Ninewa seal of approval also bodes well for Exxon, as it signifies that there will be less violent opposition from local leaders over its move to court the KRG.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Here again, Baghdad loses out. Ninewa today is one of the last bastions of al Qaeda in IRAQ, and its blessing of the KRG-ExxonMobil deal is significant in terms of security.</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">IRAQ'S oil is IRAQ'S oil, as far as Baghdad is concerned, and the KRG does not have the authority to sign any export deals on its own, even if it plans to divert revenues from sales to the IRAQI central authority.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The KRG, however, has a number of major power players behind it, from Ankara to Brussels and Washington, all of whom would very much like to see IRAQI oil and gas find an easy way to Western markets.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">In the end, TURKEY'S stance on NORTHERN IRAQ may seem like a paradox, but it is a logical move on many levels. With SYRIA in a state of violent upheaval, militant KURDS who threaten TURKEY from across that border, some experts argue, are no longer a focal point or even a threat by comparison. And Ankara's burgeoning relationship with the KRG has allegedly softened KURDISH militancy aimed at TURKEY in recent past. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">THE SYRIAN EQUATION </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><span style="font-size: large;">Nevertheless one should not forget that the biggest new paramilitary group rising from SYRIA’S war-torn landscape is the KURDISH coalition formed by the SYRIAN Democratic Union Party and elements of the TURKISH PKK, which continue to arrive from IRAQ and are taking up position on the SYRIAN-TURKISH border. KURDISH fighters are occupying one northern SYRIAN town and village after another, laying the foundation for an <b>independent SYRIAN KURDISH state</b> which plans to link up with the KRG (Kurdish Regional Government) of IRAQ.<br />The merger of SYRIAN and TURKISH Kurdish militias with the IRAQI KURDISH peshmerga would produce a KURDISH army of 225,000 fighting men.<br />Terrified that the separatism sweeping its brothers will infect the TURKISH KURDISH minority - and suspecting Washington of surreptitiously supporting it - TURKISH intelligence, the MIT, was instructed to establish and arm two TURKMEN militias in the SYRIAN KURDISH region: Brigades of Mehmet the Conqueror and Brigades of Sultan Abdulhamid.  </span><br /><br /> <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">REOPENING THE <span style="color: red;">TRANS ARABIAN PIPELINE “TAPLINE” </span>WOULD BENEFIT NOT ONLY SAUDI ARABIA, THE USA AND ISRAEL, BUT ALSO TURKEY</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"></span></span></div><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;"><br /></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgI-rIEJDEH2jg07TXFAB4J2wbcx1Fu0rhPZs5QiI8oObL6kB-gbQu3Rh1g6xv0Z9qDqbt0qqEnmy4fKvd7vkg_6ThgvWuDQx9LyHKIHr1bVy1EFIbhInSPrVvbyzDWT54InjOLn9fG4r3/s1600/440px-Tapline.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgI-rIEJDEH2jg07TXFAB4J2wbcx1Fu0rhPZs5QiI8oObL6kB-gbQu3Rh1g6xv0Z9qDqbt0qqEnmy4fKvd7vkg_6ThgvWuDQx9LyHKIHr1bVy1EFIbhInSPrVvbyzDWT54InjOLn9fG4r3/s400/440px-Tapline.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><b style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">ARAMCO  TRANS ARABIAN OIL PIPELINE</span></b></span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The TRANS-ARABIAN Pipeline Company, a joint venture by STANDARD OIL OF NEW JERSEY (ESSO), STANDARD OIL OF CALIFORNIA (CHEVRON), THE TEXAS COMPANY (TEXACO) and SOCONY-VACUUM OIL COMPANY (MOBIL), was a major factor in economic development of LEBANON after independence and especially in the emergence of the south, Tapline was an important industrial adventure in global trade, the petroleum industry and AMERICAN - MIDDLE EAST politics.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The company which started operations in 1950 was the largest oil pipeline of its time, transporting SAUDI ARABIAN oil from the gulf fields to the terminal at ZAHRANI south of SAIDA, where it was shipped to the markets of EUROPE and the eastern UNITED STATES seaboard. At the peak of its operations in 1950, Tapline is said to have transported up to 30% of ARAMCO’S production of SAUDI ARABIAN crude, which amounted to 300,000 barrels per day which was increased by adding some additional pumping stations to 500,000 barrels per day.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The pipeline was originally planned to run from SAUDI ARABIA'S ABQAIQ oil fields to the port of HAIFA in PALESTINE where there already was a modest terminal facility for a pipeline from the Kirkuk oil fields in IRAQ. The conflict between the BRITISH MANDATE and the ISRAELI INDEPENDENCE movement had the Tapline Company surveying alternate routes already in 1946. These routes were all aimed at circumventing PALESTINE. "TRANS-JORDAN" appeared also at the time to be a country to be avoided. The final route went through JORDAN, over the GOLAN HEIGHTS in SYRIA - and not without some political consequences - to end at SIDON in LEBANON. </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">NEW ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALIST REGIME IN SYRIA IN ORDER TO REACTIVATE SAUDI ARABIA’S AND USA ARAMCO  TRANS ARABIAN OIL PIPELINE? </span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Many geo strategic analysts and political experts are at odds over the reason why even the UNITED STATES, a key ally of ISRAEL, is pushing for a regime change in SYRIA, even if such move will probably turn SYRIA into a <b>fundamentalist Islamic State</b> at the doorsteps of ISRAEL. It could be argued that the USA and SAUDI ARABIA prefer a SUNNI fundamentalist Islamic government in SYRIA in order to eliminate IRANIAN influence in SYRIA and at the same time reactivate, for geo – strategic reasons, SAUDI ARABIA’S  ARAMCO company constructed TRANS ARABIAN OIL PIPELINE “TAPLINE” </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">(See<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_1662211321"><span style="color: red;"> </span></a><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2011/12/syria-cause-and-effect.html"><span style="color: red;">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com/2011/12/syria-cause-and-effect.html</span></a><span style="color: red;"> </span>). </span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">REACTIVATION OF PIPELINE WOULD ELIMINATE THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND ALSO BENEFIT TURKEY</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Reactivation of the pipeline would eliminate the geo strategic importance of the STRAIT OF HORMUZ and thus IRAN’S leverage over the passage, through which 35% of the world’s crude oil is shipped. Needless to say, a blockade would have enormous global consequences. Sunni SAUDI ARABIA and Shiite IRAN have been at odds with each other over theological as well as economic issues for centuries (See <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Hormuz"><span style="color: red;">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Hormuz</span></a>)</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">PIPELINE ROUTE LEADS THROUGH PRO IRANIAN SYRIA, THE GOLAN HEIGHTS AND LEBANON, THUS A SAUDI FRIENDLY REGIME IS REQUIRED IN SYRIA IN ORDER TO ACTIVATE THE PIPELINE </span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"></span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">In order to reactivate the TAPLINE however, SAUDIA ARABIA and its allies need to eliminate IRAN’S influence in SYRIA and stronghold in LEBANON, which is also home to pro IRANIAN HEZBOLLAH, because the route of the pipeline leads over SYRIAN terrain, ISRAL occupied GOLAN HIGHTS, ending in the Mediterranean oil terminal ZAHRANI, south of the city of SAIDA in LEBANON.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Since SYRIA fosters close eco – political ties with Shiite IRAN, SYRIA will hardly permit the reactivation of the “SAUDI” Tapline on its soil. Not to mention the GOLAN HEIGHTS, which had been seized by ISRAEL during the 6 day war and which are now monitored by United Nations Disengagement Observer Force, UNDOF. Israel and Syria technically are still at war, thus permitting reactivation of the Tapline on the Syrian side of the seized Golan Heights is out of the question, for it would need the consent of both, ISRAEL and SYRIA. (See: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_War"><span style="color: red;">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_War</span></a>)</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">By tumbling the SYRIAN regime however, SAUDI ARABIA would be able to expand its influence in SYRIA and LEBANON, and thereby gain control over the pipeline and direct access to the MEDITERRANEAN SEA oil terminal south of SAIDA, from where crude oil could be shipped to EUROPE and the USA, at 40% less transport costs than by oil tankers passing through the SUEZ Canal in EGYPT. One could now keep on speculating why the “Arab Spring” in EGYPT did not turned out the way it was expected to be expected by the protesters!</span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="color: blue; line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">NORTHERN IRAQ AND TURKEY </span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEC_YHdB6fZlPCc-QUUugXN6PzQ1JHtQpuSemOsUdhyaZ-AmsUHLr8Rx5sZzuLU2tXnVrvEH5L8Gwhsg2KeX6HNE9Tx4Vs-F7djbWVDM2YW_UYbaATa4jr3xbcwZxYUVR0vBBdc9dB5uG-/s1600/Levantine+Energy+Corridor.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEC_YHdB6fZlPCc-QUUugXN6PzQ1JHtQpuSemOsUdhyaZ-AmsUHLr8Rx5sZzuLU2tXnVrvEH5L8Gwhsg2KeX6HNE9Tx4Vs-F7djbWVDM2YW_UYbaATa4jr3xbcwZxYUVR0vBBdc9dB5uG-/s1600/Levantine+Energy+Corridor.png" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Economics has played the greatest role in forging these new relations, and NORTHERN IRAQ has become a new staging ground for TURKEY companies and investment, with TURKS owning an estimated 50 percent of all major businesses operating under the KRG-controlled territory.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Furthermore, the pipeline deal announced between Ankara and the KRG in late May was in part a reaction to pressure to reduce imports from IRAN, but it also follows a logical path in the TURKEY-NORTHERN IRAQ relationship.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">TURKEY knows that the pipeline deal and other energy deals forged with the KRG will set the stage for the creation of an independent KURDISH state. But in the meantime, TURKEY has made such a heavy footprint in NORTHERN IRAQ that its level of influence there is and will continue to be immense. As such, Ankara will wield much control over any potential sovereign KURDISH state.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">As for the KRG, it shows no signs of backing down in the face of threats from Baghdad, and is hedging its bets that the combination of its natural resource wealth and Western power brokers on its side will give it the advantage. On June 11, the KRG told a gathering of potential investors at a business convention in the northern capital Erbil that it expected to quadruple oil production over the next three years, and that today's 250,000 bpd would be up to 300,000 bpd by the end of this year. The KRG is already translating this into a boom for other sectors beyond energy.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Above article was written by Jen Alic with additions made by Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Background Information: </span></div><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2011/12/energy-games-in-eastern-mediterranean.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2011/12/energy-games-in-eastern-mediterranean.html</a><br /> <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2011/09/turkeys-middle-east-chess-game.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2011/09/turkeys-middle-east-chess-game.html</a><br /> <a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkeys-sunni-crescent.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/07/turkeys-sunni-crescent.html</a><br /> <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2011/12/syria-cause-and-effect.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2011/12/syria-cause-and-effect.html</a></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><a href="http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/01/syrias-destiny-sealed.html">http://news-these-days.blogspot.com.ar/2012/01/syrias-destiny-sealed.html</a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"></span></div><br /> <br />

TURKEYS ERRATIC FOREIGN POLICIES – ALL BECAUSE OF ENERGY?

TURKEY'S GAMBLE ON KURDISTAN OIL As tensions rise among IRAQI KURDS in the country's north , SUNNIS in the south and the SHI'ITE...

Read more »