News for today's 2018

SUNNI VERSUS SHIA: THE MIDDLE EAST’S NEW STRATEGIC CONFLICT

<br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-outline-level: 3;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHQkTdxQMXc-pOSxIeAkn0jIj_IquRtjTEulBeSy4WFCvkYtHwZ5pQ9Ky57qgl5uRAnLOeafpIHpBWNu-5mS-HQrz1XYwzlea0ro_bzgoyiErj788uqGg7NrznwDVsv0aLou7GghJDEztz/s1600/images.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHQkTdxQMXc-pOSxIeAkn0jIj_IquRtjTEulBeSy4WFCvkYtHwZ5pQ9Ky57qgl5uRAnLOeafpIHpBWNu-5mS-HQrz1XYwzlea0ro_bzgoyiErj788uqGg7NrznwDVsv0aLou7GghJDEztz/s320/images.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"><br /></span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";"> </span><span style="color: #1c3448; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; letter-spacing: 0.5pt;">O</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">f course, conflicts between <b>Sunni </b>and <b>Shia</b> Muslims are not at all new, but the fact that this is becoming a central feature on the regional strategic level is a dramatic shift. After all, as long as there were secular-style regimes preaching an all-inclusive Arab nationalist identity, differences between religious communities were subordinated. Once there are Islamist regimes, theology becomes central again, as it was centuries ago.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">However, no one should misunderstand the situation. This is fundamentally a struggle for political power and wealth. When <b>Sunni</b> and <b>Shia</b> states or movements battle, they are acting as political entities not pursuing old theological disputes.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The growing power and influence of IRAN’S Islamist regime posed a tremendous problem for Arab <b>Sunni</b> Islamists. They generally did not like IRAN because it was <b>Persian</b> and <b>Shia,</b> yet it was the only Islamist game in town. Thus, Arab <b>Sunni </b>Islamist Hamas became an IRANIAN client. The IRAN-IRAQ war reflected these antagonisms, as best seen in IRAQI propaganda. Yet IRAQ’S regime was also able to keep the <b>Shia</b> majority there under control.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Saddam Hussein’s removal by a U.S.-led international intervention opened up the question of confessional relations in IRAQ. The Arab <b>Shia</b>were inevitably going to win any election, given their three-to-one advantage over the <b>Sunni</b> and the <b>Kurds</b> opting out for what is, in effect though not name, their own state in the north. Despite the terrorist, anti-AMERICAN, and al-Qaida elements of the <b>Sunni</b>insurgency, it was essentially a last-ditch attempt by the <b>Sunnis</b> to reclaim power. It failed and while violence continues, the main <b>Sunni</b> emphasis will be on negotiating the best possible division of power.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">THE “ARAB SPRING” WAS AN OVERWHELMINGLY SUNNI AFFAIR</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">In LEBANON, the <b>Shia</b> triumphed too, led by <b>Hizballah</b>and aided by SYRIA and IRAN. But all of this was prelude to the year 2011. The “Arab Spring” was an overwhelmingly <b>Sunni</b>affair, their own equivalent in some ways of IRAN’S 1979 revolution. Only in BAHRAIN, where they were repressed, did the <b>Shia</b>take the offensive.</span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8urJXFCKRf3DocJOpOVZuZq7LS94vyQfFGVXANZdr1Y88nSdPSnI5Yp1OAvQWB1m6J5BbMX1zu6ikQayB4LLWxazqxhhZQHGEAscdLFPgOwn-n_v7A4vBjcbmrvDZeMrRSyh_hWxuIZDK/s1600/1images.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8urJXFCKRf3DocJOpOVZuZq7LS94vyQfFGVXANZdr1Y88nSdPSnI5Yp1OAvQWB1m6J5BbMX1zu6ikQayB4LLWxazqxhhZQHGEAscdLFPgOwn-n_v7A4vBjcbmrvDZeMrRSyh_hWxuIZDK/s320/1images.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">EGYPT, TUNISIA, and LIBYA all had <b>Sunn</b>i insurgencies against <b>Sunni</b> Arab governments. The situation in SYRIA is far more complex with an <b>Alawite</b>non-Muslim regime that pretends to be <b>Shia </b>Muslim and is allied with IRAN, opposed by a variety of rebels. Nevertheless, in this context, the upheaval is a <b>Sunni</b>-led (though far from just Islamist) revolt against a “<b>Shia</b>” regime.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Here’s the bottom line: <b>Sunni </b>Arab Islamists no longer need IRAN or even Turkey because they now have their own power. What is likely to emerge is at least a loose <b>Sunni </b>Arab and largely Islamist-flavored bloc consisting of EGYPT, the Gaza Strip, LIBYA, and TUNISIA along with the Muslim Brotherhood elements in JORDAN and SYRIA.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">DIVIDED ENTITIES</span></b></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">The key element here is the Muslim Brotherhood, an organization that doesn’t like <b>Shia</b>Muslims in general and IRAN in particular. Little events, like Brotherhood guru Yusuf al-Qaradawi’s support for the <b>Sunni </b>regime in BAHRAIN against the Shia opposition, show the direction of their thinking. The even more radical <b>Salafists Wahhabi</b>— a term now used for the small revolutionary Islamist groups, are even more anti-<b>Shia</b>. One factor here is the continued unwillingness of the majority of Arab states to welcome <b>Shia</b>-ruled IRAQ into their ranks. IRAQ is not going to become a satellite of IRAN. It certainly feels more comfortable in a <b>Shia</b> bloc but will probably continue to be relatively uninvolved in regional affairs.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Note, too, that to a large extent this situation leaves the <b>Palestinian</b>Authority as an orphan. While it can depend on very general Arab, IRANIAN, and TURKISH support, the Islamists prefer to back Hamas, especially the ever-stronger <b>Sunni </b>Islamists. This, of course, encourages the <b>Palestinian</b>Authority’s (Fatah’s) alliance with Hamas while also weakening its leverage toward that Islamist partner. (And that means a continued disinterest in negotiating with Israel, much less reaching a negotiated solution with it.)</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Thus, despite appearances, 2011 was a defeat for IRAN and TURKEY because <b>Sunni </b>Arab Islamists are far less receptive to Tehran’s influence and view it as a rival, while Arab Islamists don’t want leadership from TURKS either.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">Can these blocs unite effectively against the UNITED STATES, the WEST or ISRAEL? In a word: No. Their power struggles for regional power and for control of individual states (BAHRAIN, LEBANON, SYRIA, and to a far lesser extent IRAQ) will keep them in conflict. Even on the anti-ISRAEL consensus each side will seek to exploit it for their own, often conflicting, interests.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSIlK1HvmMxg-VbEEO6rNEE_nseETZjRKxXqjynraW0JTl_WdWU2MlbQ-ZadIGcL40ixY1XpFLL0YcFS74rGJNe5vFyrdROfu2yMJYNYp5Ft1bPWyn5kfooKM_4QA21XLG_LpKyfdZthCE/s1600/2images.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSIlK1HvmMxg-VbEEO6rNEE_nseETZjRKxXqjynraW0JTl_WdWU2MlbQ-ZadIGcL40ixY1XpFLL0YcFS74rGJNe5vFyrdROfu2yMJYNYp5Ft1bPWyn5kfooKM_4QA21XLG_LpKyfdZthCE/s320/2images.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">By the same token, however, the hope for moderation is minimal. In a region when regimes and movements are competing to prove their militancy and loyalty to a radical interpretation of Islam, nobody is going to want to make peace with ISRAEL. And regimes will only work with the UNITED STATES if they feel that America can and will protect them, a rather forlorn hope with an Obama Administration eager to make friends with Islamists.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif";">There is also another aspect to this SUNNI-SHIA rivalry, the formation of blocs, the competition in militancy, and the battle for control of individual states. The region will continue to waste lives, time, and resources in political strife as the lure of ideology and power rather than pragmatism and economic productivity. This is still rule even if the old regimes have fallen.</span></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">A different version of this article appeared in the Jerusalem Post.</span></i></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div>

SUNNI VERSUS SHIA: THE MIDDLE EAST’S NEW STRATEGIC CONFLICT

O f course, conflicts between Sunni and Shia Muslims are not at all new, but the fact that this is becoming a central feature on the reg...

SUNNI VERSUS SHIA: THE MIDDLE EAST’S NEW STRATEGIC CONFLICT

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